My apologies, it wasn't mentioned in the OP so I assumed you were open to any POD.
No problem, your information will help me when I do other stuff. I thought though I implied a POD after the start of the war given that I said they would "somehow" win in the Netherlands. They had the numbers and the tactical defense (even if we ignore the Dutch) so any form of proper preparations would have made a victory there fairly likely. I generally do either timeline posts or query posts.
Interestingly a
passage from the book I've been reading seems to suggest there were some in Britain who were interested in taking land from Prussia. The way the sentence is included leaves a great deal of ambiguity though, and too my knowledge popular opinion in Britain was that continental entanglements were bad (perhaps some felt a bigger Hanover wouldn't need British field armies?). Probably nothing but an interesting thought.
Hmmm, I thought that an empowered Austria that won the War of Austrian Succession with more land and some payments would be sufficient to bolster the position in Hannover. I'm not sure what the people in that passage are thinking. If they saw the French Revolution coming (which would be ASB as no one saw it coming) a larger Hannover is a good thing
Ironically, England's first personal union with the continent was helpful to the crown, not a liability.
Normandy provided triple the income as the
Kingdom of England despite having less people (taxes were low in England by that time's standards). The Kingdom of France, with even more people than England, made the French crown less money than the English got from their kingdom. France collected more taxes, but until the 1500s more of it seemed to disappear, leaving less for the crown than his English counterpart. During the Third Crusade era, the Kings got more income from their personal land (that they would have the same way a count has a county) than their kingdoms.
On to the actual matter at hand:
Maria might be unwilling to settle for a negotiated peace at this time given that France and Bavaria (and Saxony and Prussia) had violated the Pragmatic Sanction which they were party to, other than that small bump your scenario is definitely possible. I am curious as to what butterflies you hope to unleash with this. No Spaniards in Italy? Luxembourg wank? Alternate destination for a fleeing Louis XVI? Lorraine in the German Confederation? An Austria that foregoes the Theresian Reforms under the belief that its army is adequate?
I don't have a particular buttery in mind, it's a query type post. What would the Austrians do in this situation.
I'm not thinking no Spaniards in Italy, they keep Naples and Austrian troops only sacked a few cities, with no intention to hold any land far from the North. That's why I said they only took a buffer zone around what they started the war with.
A Luxemborg wank might be interesting.
I also don't think reforms will be forgone entirely. Let's say they win in Italy because... the Austrian commanders asked their Savoy counterparts "uhhh... none of us know how to lead after Eugene died. This is the battlefield situation, what should I do about it?" The Netherlands campaign will make them a bit more overconfident, but the fact remains that they got beaten by a smaller army against Prussia. The Rhine campaign wouldn't stimulate overconfidence either. Taking land in a counterattack after a victory isn't difficult when the other side took garrison forces and put them in the field army you just sent packing! And beating Bavaria should be easy if the French can't help them. I think reforms will be taken and start at the same time as OTL, but will take longer because they think "we're just a bit behind, nothing a bit of drilling and leadership improvements can't fix"
So you said Maria might be unwilling to settle for a negotiated peace. What would she do in this situation? She can't push for Silesia, as I don't think she's a treaty violated and Prussia didn't reenter the war yet. She can't punish Saxony because at this point they switched sides and gave a token payment as "sorry we broke Pragmatic Sanction, but take this and don't punish us anymore." in OTL she turned down a similar offer when the Bavarians gave Saxony-style offer a few years later. I proposed Lorraine for Silesia since it was the Jewel of Bohemia and she can't take it back militarily unless Prussia re-enters (ok, she can, but she won't be a treaty breaker unlike all the people that fought against her inheritance)