Austrian Victory in War of Austrian Succession

If the Austrians (somehow... the French had good commanders and the Austrians had bad ones) and the British beat back the French, would the Austrians ask for Lorraine back? Maria-Theresa's husband gave up Lorraine for Tuscany and France now controlled Lorraine. However, a victorious Austria is in a position to demand it as compensation for swearing to agree to the Pragmatic Sanction (and not honoring it).

Of course, if they are doing well on the Rhine front, they'd probably divert troops to Sileisa where they will just get picked off in detail, but let's say the Bohemian front goes like OTL in TTL and the Austrians and British stand on both Lorraine and French soil they have no intention of taking whatsoever.

I mean, the Pragmatic Allies had a numerical superiority of troops on the field when the Netherlands campaign began, as well as some defending knowing the terrain. If they defended properly (which they could, as I said leadership problem), they could have made a decisive counterattack on a retreating army. So would they ask for Lorraine back, or just $$$?
 
The Austrians managed to cross the Rhine into Alsace with the goal of retaking Lorraine in 1744. They were led by Charles of Lorraine although it was mostly Traun's credit. However, they had to fall back when a larger French army moved against them and the Prussians attacked Bohemia again. I'm convinced retaking Lorraine wasn't really possible and it would also open up the question about what to do with Tuscany since that was the replacement for Lorraine.
As for the campaign in the ANL the Dutch weren't fully committed and inside the Netherlands there was some strong opposition to the war with France and there was little coordination between the British, Dutch, Austrian and various other German forces in the area. Also Cumberland and Charles of Lorraine weren't really up to a commander like Maurice de Saxe so they would be lucky to at least keep a small part of the ANL. However, there are some pretty interesting PODs that could have severe effects on the outcome of the war.
 
Ok, so they DID intend to retake it, but obviously couldn't

I'm sure (if they won) they would keep Tuscany and Lorraine. It would be punishment for swearing up and up that they would not interfere with Pragmatic Sanction and... totally not honoring it.

That said, I don't think they could retake it feasibly. If the French got defeated in ANL and the Pragmatic allies counterattacked, it could do that, but the only better of Maurice would be someone like Eugene of Savoy from the... previous generation. The only other way it could work is if the French left the gates open on all seven of their modern forts in that region (because I'm going to forget to close the gate after my comrades fell last week), the Austrians could waltz in and the French can have their fun trying to retake Lorraine while the Austrians control all the roads. Unless the medieval castles actually offer any protection against cannons (they were built too high to withstand them if I remember correctly), in which case the French would need to leave the gates to their modern forts and 3-6 dozen medieval castles.
 
Their main target is regaining Silesia. So, yes they could demand Lorraine but only after securing Silesia from Prussia which makes it unlikely that they would achieve a significant enough of a victory to be in a position to demand both.
 
I was thinking a loss of the Bohemian front and a win on the Savoy, Caribbean, Netherlands Rhine, and Italian fronts.

If they occupied Lorraine and some French territory on the Mediterranean (shutting down the French trading and whatever wine grows there), would they say "we're in no position to demand both Lorraine and Silesia, so how about you just give us back Silesia and a modest fee for violating Pragmatic Sanction and we'll give back the territory we took?"

Or do you think they would make other demands? Suppose the Hanoverians offer to help them keep their throne and demand Lorraine or Silesia, but you know it's kind of been a long they aren't in a position to help the Austrians retake both. What would the Austrians go for it the military situation was like that?
 
I was thinking a loss of the Bohemian front and a win on the Savoy, Caribbean, Netherlands Rhine, and Italian fronts.

If they occupied Lorraine and some French territory on the Mediterranean (shutting down the French trading and whatever wine grows there), would they say "we're in no position to demand both Lorraine and Silesia, so how about you just give us back Silesia and a modest fee for violating Pragmatic Sanction and we'll give back the territory we took?"

Or do you think they would make other demands? Suppose the Hanoverians offer to help them keep their throne and demand Lorraine or Silesia, but you know it's kind of been a long they aren't in a position to help the Austrians retake both. What would the Austrians go for it the military situation was like that?
Seizing Silesia is their main target and Maria Theresa's only goal. There is also no way that the situation you describe is impossible, if Austria loses in Bohemia their forces will be focussed on taking it back not on invading France.
 
Seizing Silesia is their main target and Maria Theresa's only goal. There is also no way that the situation you describe is impossible, if Austria loses in Bohemia their forces will be focussed on taking it back not on invading France.

They invaded France in 1744 (an epic fail) despite having lost Silesia. Albeit, a force three times as large was going back to Silesia to retake it (a bigger failure) that time.

So I don't think it's impossible to occupy Lorraine and not Silesia.

They could have occupied Lorraine earlier in the war under two situations. A victory in repelling the French in the Netherlands campaign would give them free reign while the French regrouped. The other way is early in the war as a quick lightning strike against forts with gates open. They are organizationally incapable of such a feat, but their logistics and horses could theoretically support it. In the Anarchy (a conflict in the 1100s), Stephen regained a castle when the defenders... left the gate open in broad daylight. I'm not seeing that seven times though. If either happens, they would of course try to retake Silesia, but would keep a small force behind to defend their gains, which might be able to hold out given the force multiple of forts (and the French might be short on cannons if they had to retreat from a Netherlands campaign without heavy equipment)
 
They invaded France in 1744 (an epic fail) despite having lost Silesia. Albeit, a force three times as large was going back to Silesia to retake it (a bigger failure) that time.

So I don't think it's impossible to occupy Lorraine and not Silesia.

They could have occupied Lorraine earlier in the war under two situations. A victory in repelling the French in the Netherlands campaign would give them free reign while the French regrouped. The other way is early in the war as a quick lightning strike against forts with gates open. They are organizationally incapable of such a feat, but their logistics and horses could theoretically support it. In the Anarchy (a conflict in the 1100s), Stephen regained a castle when the defenders... left the gate open in broad daylight. I'm not seeing that seven times though. If either happens, they would of course try to retake Silesia, but would keep a small force behind to defend their gains, which might be able to hold out given the force multiple of forts (and the French might be short on cannons if they had to retreat from a Netherlands campaign without heavy equipment)
I'm not saying its physically impossible, the Pragmatic Alliance could have done it militarily. Its the fact that Maria Theresa is far more interested in Silesia than Lorraine that is the issue.
 
I'm not saying its physically impossible, the Pragmatic Alliance could have done it militarily. Its the fact that Maria Theresa is far more interested in Silesia than Lorraine that is the issue.

I mostly agree with that given the distribution of her units. I think she wrote it off as a loss 11 June 1742 (which tormented her), but in 1744 put it on her mind again (and after the war and failing to get it back, the thought tormented her again).

So if the military situation was as I described (Bohemian front and a win on the Savoy, Caribbean, Netherlands Rhine, and Italian fronts) what would they ask for? A peace and some payment from the French? The Stuart claimant put on the French throne (hey, better than a Bourbon who hates the Hapsburgs and Hannovers)? Lorraine? Or since Silesia is more important to Maria Theresa and the Austrian counts, maybe demand a trade occupied Silesia for occupied Lorraine (plus French territories they occupied and have no intention of keeping) plus payment?
 
Charles VI does not allow the Austrian Army to stagnate. (assuming the sides are the same in this scenario) The War of Austrian Succession is a repeat of the War of Spanish Succession, and Fredrick's little power play results in Prussia being violently beaten back into a marginal power that jockeys with Sweden and Saxony for regional influence. Of course Charles VI taking a more active interest in the well being of the army would likely result in a better military record in the lead up to his death, which would likely deter the War of Austrian Succession entirely (and probably ensure the survival of Habsburg Serbia).
 
Charles VI does not allow the Austrian Army to stagnate. (assuming the sides are the same in this scenario) The War of Austrian Succession is a repeat of the War of Spanish Succession, and Fredrick's little power play results in Prussia being violently beaten back into a marginal power that jockeys with Sweden and Saxony for regional influence. Of course Charles VI taking a more active interest in the well being of the army would likely result in a better military record in the lead up to his death, which would likely deter the War of Austrian Succession entirely (and probably ensure the survival of Habsburg Serbia).
Prussia's little power play was done with one of ,if not the best, armies in europe at the time and it had competent leadership, the Austrians just not letting their army stagnat may not be enough, it would certainly make things more competitive but it wouldn't guarantee victory.
 
I mostly agree with that given the distribution of her units. I think she wrote it off as a loss 11 June 1742 (which tormented her), but in 1744 put it on her mind again (and after the war and failing to get it back, the thought tormented her again).

So if the military situation was as I described (Bohemian front and a win on the Savoy, Caribbean, Netherlands Rhine, and Italian fronts) what would they ask for? A peace and some payment from the French? The Stuart claimant put on the French throne (hey, better than a Bourbon who hates the Hapsburgs and Hannovers)? Lorraine? Or since Silesia is more important to Maria Theresa and the Austrian counts, maybe demand a trade occupied Silesia for occupied Lorraine (plus French territories they occupied and have no intention of keeping) plus payment?
Given the diplomatic trickery of Frederick the Great I feel like he wouldn't be willing to surrender Prussian occupied territory even if his 'ally' demands it. The most likely scenario in the situation you propose would probably be for the Pragmatic Alliance to demand Lorraine (mainly for Maria Theresa's husband Francis) and then resume war on Prussia. However, the renewal of war with Prussia would almost certainly see much of the Pragmatic Alliance drop out (namely the UK and the Netherlands) since their main involvement in the war is to maintain the balance of power Europe and a new Silesian War (with France having been humbled) would have little effect on that.
 
Maria Theresa had lost Silesia in 1742 and campaigns directed against against Lorraine and Naples were intended to replace that loss because she couldn't breach the treaty with Frederick. However, as soon as Prussia rejoined the war in 1744 all those plans were abandoned because Prussia was their closest enemy (except for Bavaria but they were easily overrun and Prussia was far stronger). Besides, Silesia was the crown jewel of Austria and not only that losing it would be a huge loss for Austria it would also be a huge gain for Prussia that like we saw OTL helped propel it to the second strongest power in the Empire and a rival to the Emperor himself. No way Maria Theresa would throw away regaining it over retaking Lorraine which was more trouble than it was worth.
 
But there are PODs that could result in an Austrian victory. There was a TL before though I can't remember the name right now but the POD was the Battle of Mollwitz where the Austrians win. It was touch and go for the Prussians and they could've easily lost changing the outcome of the entire war.
Another idea I was considering for my TL was to kill off Charles Alexander of Lorraine. He did more harm than good to the Austrians. His death could've happened in the Austro-Turkish War during the 1730s where Charles was once badly wounded. Apart from removing his incompetence from command also Maria Anna of Austria would have to find another husband thereby securing another marriage alliance for the Habsburgs. If Neipperg is still in command in Silesia and loses like OTL Khevenhuller is placed in command of the army in Bohemia and could win at an analogous Chotusitz where the Austrians had a chance to catch the Prussian army divided in half and defeat them both in detail. Saxons retreat like OTL and Khevenhuller turns to Prague and stops Belle Isle from escaping Prague. Someone else who is capable takes command of Khevenhuller's Bavarian winter campaign (Barnklau, Daun, Browne) while Traun takes care of the Spaniards in Italy like OTL. In 1743 Traun comes to Bohemia to replace Khevenhuller and launches an invasion of Silesia where the Prussians are in a worse position, having to send some detachments to secure their border with Hanover and also in East Prussia while the Austrian hussars and other Hungarian and Croat light troops harass them and cut their supply lines and communications with help of some of the locals. Besides, Frederick is also running out of money pretty quick. I believe, based on how Traun chased Frederick out of Bohemia and Moravia in 1744 he could also defeat Frederick in Silesia. Brandenburg would probably stay safe but I'm pretty convinced the Prussians would be ejected from Silesia and forced to a peace treaty mediated by the English who had little concern for the Austrian reconquest of Silesia and would want a quick end to it and the restoration of balance of power. For them more important would be a joint campaign of some British and Hanoverian troops with a smaller Austrian army to crush the Bavarian and throw their French auxiliaries across the Rhine, securing a connection with Flanders and preventing a possible French invasion. The OTL Battle of Dettingen could be butterflied away (no huge Pragmatic threatening the army of Duc de Noailles but a small force is needed for Bavaria and takes a different route with Hanover threatened less now that Prussia is heavily defeated) that would further help prevent the French direct involvement. They are out of allies: Prussia is defeated, Bavaria overrun, Saxony left and Sardinia joined Austria as OTL. In the peace treaty Bavaria is restored, Prussia could lose some smaller territories like the Prussian Guelders or smt, Francis Stephen is to be elected Emperor. As for Italy without French involvement Spain has to back down. Only thing they managed to take was the Duchy of Savoy that could be a consolation for Infante Felipe with Sardinia compensated by territory from Milan as promised in Austro-Sardinian alliance. Now, if Louis XV is even a little reasonable he would not join the war. The only ally he's got is Spain. Sweden is defeated, Germany and Italy are lost, Russia won't provide any help. Still, even in such a situation he could make gains in Flanders, though if Austria is not busy with Prussia it would be less. In Italy if anyone else is in command instead of Botta d'Adorno who could stay as an ambassador in Moscow or even better do something unimportant, Austria can win there too. The British will take the French colonies and when everyone is out of money the war is over. In a treaty the French would give back their gains in the continent to get back the colonies in Canada and the Caribbean and the war is finished. However this depend on the writer if France will fight or wait for a better opportunity a decade or two later.
There, they win in Germany, Italy and the Caribbean but Savoy is bound to be lost since it's pretty easy to conquer from France than to reconquer from Italy but the Allies in Flanders are destined to lose unless you have commanders like Eugene and Marlborough cooperating. Traun wasn't too far and some coordination could've been achieved so a part of the Flanders could be saved preventing France from taking it for good, at least in this war. The only thing is that I can't think of a POD that helps Austria retake Lorraine. They couldn't have taken it themselves and I don't think the British or Dutch would've helped them much in that effort. It was one attempt when they couldn't have done nothing else and it fell apart quickly.
 
But there are PODs that could result in an Austrian victory. There was a TL before though I can't remember the name right now but the POD was the Battle of Mollwitz where the Austrians win. It was touch and go for the Prussians and they could've easily lost changing the outcome of the entire war.
Another idea I was considering for my TL was to kill off Charles Alexander of Lorraine. He did more harm than good to the Austrians. His death could've happened in the Austro-Turkish War during the 1730s where Charles was once badly wounded. Apart from removing his incompetence from command also Maria Anna of Austria would have to find another husband thereby securing another marriage alliance for the Habsburgs. If Neipperg is still in command in Silesia and loses like OTL Khevenhuller is placed in command of the army in Bohemia and could win at an analogous Chotusitz where the Austrians had a chance to catch the Prussian army divided in half and defeat them both in detail. Saxons retreat like OTL and Khevenhuller turns to Prague and stops Belle Isle from escaping Prague. Someone else who is capable takes command of Khevenhuller's Bavarian winter campaign (Barnklau, Daun, Browne) while Traun takes care of the Spaniards in Italy like OTL. In 1743 Traun comes to Bohemia to replace Khevenhuller and launches an invasion of Silesia where the Prussians are in a worse position, having to send some detachments to secure their border with Hanover and also in East Prussia while the Austrian hussars and other Hungarian and Croat light troops harass them and cut their supply lines and communications with help of some of the locals. Besides, Frederick is also running out of money pretty quick. I believe, based on how Traun chased Frederick out of Bohemia and Moravia in 1744 he could also defeat Frederick in Silesia. Brandenburg would probably stay safe but I'm pretty convinced the Prussians would be ejected from Silesia and forced to a peace treaty mediated by the English who had little concern for the Austrian reconquest of Silesia and would want a quick end to it and the restoration of balance of power. For them more important would be a joint campaign of some British and Hanoverian troops with a smaller Austrian army to crush the Bavarian and throw their French auxiliaries across the Rhine, securing a connection with Flanders and preventing a possible French invasion. The OTL Battle of Dettingen could be butterflied away (no huge Pragmatic threatening the army of Duc de Noailles but a small force is needed for Bavaria and takes a different route with Hanover threatened less now that Prussia is heavily defeated) that would further help prevent the French direct involvement. They are out of allies: Prussia is defeated, Bavaria overrun, Saxony left and Sardinia joined Austria as OTL. In the peace treaty Bavaria is restored, Prussia could lose some smaller territories like the Prussian Guelders or smt, Francis Stephen is to be elected Emperor. As for Italy without French involvement Spain has to back down. Only thing they managed to take was the Duchy of Savoy that could be a consolation for Infante Felipe with Sardinia compensated by territory from Milan as promised in Austro-Sardinian alliance. Now, if Louis XV is even a little reasonable he would not join the war. The only ally he's got is Spain. Sweden is defeated, Germany and Italy are lost, Russia won't provide any help. Still, even in such a situation he could make gains in Flanders, though if Austria is not busy with Prussia it would be less. In Italy if anyone else is in command instead of Botta d'Adorno who could stay as an ambassador in Moscow or even better do something unimportant, Austria can win there too. The British will take the French colonies and when everyone is out of money the war is over. In a treaty the French would give back their gains in the continent to get back the colonies in Canada and the Caribbean and the war is finished. However this depend on the writer if France will fight or wait for a better opportunity a decade or two later.
There, they win in Germany, Italy and the Caribbean but Savoy is bound to be lost since it's pretty easy to conquer from France than to reconquer from Italy but the Allies in Flanders are destined to lose unless you have commanders like Eugene and Marlborough cooperating. Traun wasn't too far and some coordination could've been achieved so a part of the Flanders could be saved preventing France from taking it for good, at least in this war. The only thing is that I can't think of a POD that helps Austria retake Lorraine. They couldn't have taken it themselves and I don't think the British or Dutch would've helped them much in that effort. It was one attempt when they couldn't have done nothing else and it fell apart quickly.
That may well be my TL you mention. :p Its in my sig still (For the Want of a King).
And I believe that you may be onto something there with killing of Charles Alexander, it does raise the issue of butterflies though. If Charles Alexander dies in the 1730s and the Habsburgs secure another dynastic alliance would the war have happened at all? And if it did, surely the war would not be the same... At the very least there is no guarantee that Frederick would act in the way he did IOTL.
 
The Battle Charles was wounded happened in July of 1739 so it won't change that many things in one year and I'm not sure about who would Maria Anna marry but not too much would change. There is no guarantee but Frederick would most likely behave like he did IOTL and in the beginning of the war Prussia has the upper hand, at least in the Bohemian area.
 
The Battle Charles was wounded happened in July of 1739 so it won't change that many things in one year and I'm not sure about who would Maria Anna marry but not too much would change. There is no guarantee but Frederick would most likely behave like he did IOTL and in the beginning of the war Prussia has the upper hand, at least in the Bohemian area.
That's a fair point then, so yeah your idea could well work,
 
Prussia's little power play was done with one of ,if not the best, armies in europe at the time and it had competent leadership, the Austrians just not letting their army stagnat may not be enough, it would certainly make things more competitive but it wouldn't guarantee victory.
During the first Silesian War Prussia's army didn't perform much better than Austria's atrophied army, just look at the casualties of the battles. I really don't see Fredrick defeating (or even picking a fight with) an Austrian army that wasn't universally (and correctly) recognized as underfunded and behind the curb. Maria surrendered Silesia because the Bavarian invasion of Bohemia and claim to the HRE was a much more pressing issue. Prussia gave a spectacular showing in the Second Silesian War, but I doubt a more competent Austrian Army would allow the Prussian army time to digest the lessons of the first battles that it had OTL thanks to the Treaty of Breslau.

I'm not guaranteeing that Austria would win, but I am saying that they would certainly have the upper hand and a much better ability to draw out the fight if they aren't initially successful.
 
During the first Silesian War Prussia's army didn't perform much better than Austria's atrophied army, just look at the casualties of the battles. I really don't see Fredrick defeating (or even picking a fight with) an Austrian army that wasn't universally (and correctly) recognized as underfunded and behind the curb. Maria surrendered Silesia because the Bavarian invasion of Bohemia and claim to the HRE was a much more pressing issue. Prussia gave a spectacular showing in the Second Silesian War, but I doubt a more competent Austrian Army would allow the Prussian army time to digest the lessons of the first battles that it had OTL thanks to the Treaty of Breslau.

I'm not guaranteeing that Austria would win, but I am saying that they would certainly have the upper hand and a much better ability to draw out the fight if they aren't initially successful.
We are In agreement then
 
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