What if the Austrians had won a victory at Sadowa and decimated the Prussian Second Army? What would the First Army do, fall back, launch a second offensive? Would this impact a Prussian victory in the war?
Austrian Victory at Sadowa?
- Thread starter Enigmajones
- Start date
I think Prussian resolve to continue the war would collapse despite the fact that the Austrians would never be able to pursue the war further without causing French or Russian intervention. The result: a meager peace involving restoration of the German Confederation, the transfer of Schleswig-Holstein to the Duke of Augustenburg and perhaps an advantageous economic treaty for Austria.
The best case scenario long term is that Germany comes into being via a series of multilateral treaties. Worst case (for the German rulers) is stagnation spawning a nationalist revolutionary movement aimed at unification under a democratic republic.
The best case scenario long term is that Germany comes into being via a series of multilateral treaties. Worst case (for the German rulers) is stagnation spawning a nationalist revolutionary movement aimed at unification under a democratic republic.
wolf_brother
Banned
If the Austrians won at Sadowa that would likely be enough to cause Louis-Napoléon to join the war against Prussia; even IOTL after Sadowa he was still considering it and only changed his mind against the idea of intervention at the last moment. The Prussians are going to collapse, and the Prussian-occupied, and IOTL annexed, German states are going to be restored and perhaps enlarged at Prussian expense.
Then we're looking at a German confederation that either:
A) Is a loose confederation run by Austria-Hungary.
B) Gross-Deutschland is formed as a monarchy, with the Emperor as king of both Germany and Hungary (Hungaro-German Empire, anyone?)
A) Is a loose confederation run by Austria-Hungary.
B) Gross-Deutschland is formed as a monarchy, with the Emperor as king of both Germany and Hungary (Hungaro-German Empire, anyone?)
Somehow, the idea of a Rhineland monarchy established under French (or Franco-Austrian) auspice is appealing to me. Who would take the throne, then?
In regards to the German Confederation I'm fairly sure that Prussia resigned from it at the start or shortly before the start of the Austro-Prussian war, presumably under the (correct as it turned out) assumption that once they'd won they could replace it with something more to their liking. If Prussia loses then they're stuck on the outside of it with no-one else to blame but themselves and little chance of re-admittance with Austria left as the sole dominant state. In that kind of situation you could well see Austria being the one to push a more centralising direction for it to bring them more under their sphere of influence with Prussia out of the picture.
wolf_brother
Banned
It would have to be someone that would appeal to Franz Joseph, Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte, and to the German people, if we're going with a Rhineland partitioned among the victorious powers. Either George V of Hanover or Ludwig II of Bavaria would seem to be the strongest candidates; the Hanoverians offered the Prussians one of their only loses of the war at Langensalza (with Bavarian allies) and Hanover only surrendered by threat of superior numbers, while the Bavarian fortress of Würzburg withheld the Prussians even until the armistice, and IOTL Bavaria continued to maintain a privileged status within Germany. With the French pouring into the Palatine and lower Rhineland its possible both these states denounce their armistices and re-enter the war, and would certainly stand to gain plenty of formerly Prussian territory in the peace settlement.
If we're going with an independent Rhineland monarchy outside of Germany would seem to be the best option, as perhaps only the Hessians would stand a chance at gaining the Rhineland if it didn't fall to either Hanover or Bavaria (or both), and that seems fairly unlikely (though an enlarged Hessian Kingdom isn't out of the question). However neither a French prince, Bonapartist or otherwise, or a Hapsburg would be acceptable to the other side. I doubt a scion of Windsor would be acceptable either considering Hanover's historical ties to Britain, and as such a British monarch would still seem to be 'a Hanoverian.' Perhaps one of Alexander II of Russia's many sons; Vladimir Alexandrovich IOTL married a Mecklenburg princess, Alexei Alexandrovich was married to Marie of Hesse well before the POD, however just a few years after the Austro-Prussian War he had an affair with another woman (Alexandra Zhukovskaya) who bore him a bastard son. Sergei Alexandrovich also married a Hessian IOTL.
wolf_brother
Banned
German nationalism wouldn't allow for such a thing. As is a loss in the Austro-Prussian War would weaken the Hohenzollern's considerably; any attempt to remove themselves entirely from the German state would lead to a revolution and Wilhelm would lose his crown, if he was lucky enough to keep his head.
The only name that springs to mind without doing a large search is Count William Albert of Neipperg, 1st Prince of Montenuovo and later Austrian General of Cavalry. He's the son of Marie Louise Duchess of Parma, widow of Napoleon and former Empress of France, and also an Austrian officer. I've got no idea but might he be considered enough of a compromise candidate?
Even if they'd already left of their own volition shortly before starting the war? I find that a bit surprising.
wolf_brother
Banned
A war which you'll notice they won IOTL. That tends to have a large effect on such things
It's very likely that Austria would be heavily dominating the German landscape. In the case of creating the Grossedeutchland idea, how would politics go? How will the mere existence of the Hohenzollerns influence German politics?A war which you'll notice they won IOTL. That tends to have a large effect on such things
Probably the former Grand Duke Leopold of Tuscany, or his heir, Ferdinand Salvator. If a smaller principality is set up for ex-GD Francis of Modena, both the dethroned Archdukes now have new states, so that dynastic honour is satisfied. At the same time Austria itself gets Silesia, as compensation for giving up Venetia (as she had promised Nappy III to do) and not trying to reclaim Lombardy.
That would require not just a victory but a curbstomp. Not sure Russia would like it. While IMO an Austro-French alliance would lose a war with Prussia (AND Italy) in 1886, that is not the case if we assume France entering the war AFTER an hypotetical Austrian victory at Sadová (well, the best PODs for that could mean that the battle bears a different main location and consequent naming TTL, but this is not the point). However, stripping Prussia of Rhineland would be more than enough in terms of balance of power. Prussia was already barely a Power in Europe, without Rhineland it would definetely be a second-tier state. Depending on how badly Prussia is defeated, it may also lose to Saxony some of the lands gained there in 1815. However, I don't see Russia staying looking idly at an excessive curtailing of Prussian power, unless offered to take a share in an outright partition. Not going to happen with a 1866 POD.
Britain will be definitely interested in keeping Prussia powerful enough; so it likely won't tolerate anything more than detaching the Rhineland at the most.
And since Nappy III wants to keep Britain warm with him he'll acquiesce.
And since Nappy III wants to keep Britain warm with him he'll acquiesce.
Which is probably what you get. The Prussians are caught on the wrong side of a mountain barrier, and are retreating over land already stripped by foraging parties, so have next to no food.
Basically, the 1866 situation isn't likely to produce a small victory. One side or the other is going to win big.
Does it matter much what Russia likes or dislikes?
It's barely a decade since the Crimean War left her practically broke, and since then she's had the Polish revolt to pay for. Even in 1878, after a further twelve years of recovery, she'll have her work cut out just to defeat Turkey. In 1866 she's in no condition to take on even one great power, let alone two.
Anyway, with Poland crushed, the Tsar's main preoccupation is the Near East. He's still smarting over not being allowed to have a Black Sea Fleet. If he does anything, it will be to denounce that restriction, as he does OTL in 1870. Far safer than going to war to bail out a defeated power.
I figured that if Austria wins the war, Prussia returns to its 1866 borders, Austria becomes the unchallenged leader of the Confederation and Prussia suffers from internal strife, if not all out civil war.
OTL was not a curbstomp. Austria did not lose any land to Prussia, nor its great power status. Of course, in a scenario where Prussian army is destroyed and France jumps in, Prussia will probably suffer an harsher peace.
Russia was not a joke either, especially if you are Austria fighting Prussia and Italy at the same time. I don't say that Russia would successfully defeat both France and Austria in 1866, but that the threat of a Russian intervention, plus other consideration, would make Vienna more inclined to a lenient peace with minimal or nil border changes. Retaking Silesia and recreating Greater Saxony could be nice for Austria, but maybe not worth the price. However, if Russia actually intervenes, the scenario could be interesting. Depending on how Italy and Prussia fare, it could go either way; but assuming an early Austrian victory at Sadowa, I'd say that Austria and France are the likekiest winners, Prussia is fucked, Italy can go in several ways.
wolf_brother
Banned
Indeed, Italy is going to be the wildcard here, especially with how they react to Louis-Napoléon joining the war effort on the Austrian side. If they're truly suicidally stupid they'll demand Savoy and Nice back, which won't go over well at the Tuileries.
Suicidally stupid? Well they'd have to have a leader who was capable of putting nationalist fervor in front of common sense.... oh yeah Giuseppe Garibaldi. Never mind.
Garibaldi was not a political leader in Italy in 1866, and he was busy leading his volunteers in Trentino. Probably, next thing he'd do in this scenario would be an another attempt on Rome. That would ROYALLY piss France off, but, hey, Italy is at war with Austria.
EDIT: much depends on what happens IMMEDIATELY after alt-Sadowa. Probably, Italy would offer immediate peace and will ask for Venice not matter what; after all, Austria was willing to cede it and could decide that curbing Prussia is worth the loss. If, as very possible, Austria feels confident enough to say "no" after two victories, Italy would likely continue the war. That could mean war with France as well... not a funny thing for Italy, but much a relief for Prussia.
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