Austrian-Prussian War- different outcome

abc123

Banned
Yes, all of that are a very god ideas.
Never mind wich one we choose for POD.

Let's say that SOMETHING did happen and Cisleithania becomes part of the Reich as 2 kingdoms: Kingdom of Bohenmia and Kingdom of Austria.

And let's say that France tries to do something, but is defeated.
Italy coud be bought off with Venetia ( maybe even some parts of Southern Tirol ) and Russia with Galizia and Bukovina.

UK as a naval power can not do much without continental allies.


So, what butterflies that make for the rest of Europe and world?
No WW1? Earlier WW1?

What about Croatia? Becomes independent or a part of Hungary?
 
Assuming this occurs somehow...

Hungary will fight to hold onto Croatia, probably literally have to

I assume that this complete annexation of Austria also brings some sort of Palace of Schonberg declaration of a German Empire, tying in the Southern German states.

Now, IMHO this deal is going to allow some places such as Hannover and Hesse-Kassel to retain their sovereignty within the federal structure

What it does NOT do is include Luxembourg. Looking at this
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxembourg_Crisis
it seems Bismarck made an agreement with Napoleon III over Luxembourg and with Bismarck dead, it seems to me as if the Prusso-Germans are not going to be in a position (having just swallowed Austria AND Germany) to threaten France over this

So, the Netherlands sells Luxembourg to France, thus allowing Napoleon III to save face, and for the Netherlands to get a nice bit of money to alleviate its financial problems

Now, there is no need for another war, since we are assuming that the 1866 war has unified Germany. Napoleon III's throne is more secure, and the Hohenzollern Candidature, whilst it will come up in Madrid will stop at the candidate's rejection of the offer

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
So, the Netherlands sells Luxembourg to France, thus allowing Napoleon III to save face, and for the Netherlands to get a nice bit of money to alleviate its financial problems

Not the Netherlands, King Willem III s financial problems (and its private property Luxemburg, not Dutch Luxemburg).
 

abc123

Banned
Assuming this occurs somehow...

Hungary will fight to hold onto Croatia, probably literally have to


Yes.
maybe Hungary ask Prussia that one of Hohenzollern princes becomes a king of Hungary.
And Hungarians will have a great problems with Romanians, Serbians, Slovaks etc. nationalities in their Kingdom, I doubt that they will fight much about Croatia. After all, they are not so enthusiastic about having way over 50% non-Hungarians in Kingdom...
Maybe some face-saving-measure like personal union between Croatia and Hungary. Or free port in Rijeka for Hungary.

Keeping Dalmatia from Italy is however much heavier for Croatia.
;)
 
Hmm...personally I think that war with France might still continue due to the fact for Germany (uber-Prussia) to be safe, many of the generals will still view France as an enemy that has to be sorted out. Remember the old Germany song "Wacht am Rhein."
 

Typo

Banned
Bismarck was interested in optimizing the results of German unification for Prussia. Therefore, he tried to get an Uber-Prussia - and succeeded.

This Prussian-nationalism is also found in other Prussian leaders, which therefore would be similarly hesitant to annex large parts of Cisleithania. The majority of this country would be catholic, and Berlin would not be the natural center of such an Empire.
Also you end up the with the situation 1900 in 1871, which is everyone sees Germany as a threat
 
The scenario is silly. Three quarters of the Austrian army got away in ok order at Koniggratz, and if during the ensuing ceasefire the Prussians start making ridiculous and anachronistic demands like the complete annexation of Austria and Bohemia, it is now a war of dynastic and imperial survival.

So the Austrians call up everyone that dodged the first mobilization thru exemptions, sick leave etc. Albrecht marches north with his victorious forces from the Italian front, unifies with Benedek and the Prussians get to try it again against a larger Austrian army than the first time. Except this time the Austrians have the support of the other Great powers of Europe, because Prussia is attempting to destroy the concert of Europe.

Silly.
 
The scenario is silly. Three quarters of the Austrian army got away in ok order at Koniggratz, and if during the ensuing ceasefire the Prussians start making ridiculous and anachronistic demands like the complete annexation of Austria and Bohemia, it is now a war of dynastic and imperial survival.

So the Austrians call up everyone that dodged the first mobilization thru exemptions, sick leave etc. Albrecht marches north with his victorious forces from the Italian front, unifies with Benedek and the Prussians get to try it again against a larger Austrian army than the first time. Except this time the Austrians have the support of the other Great powers of Europe, because Prussia is attempting to destroy the concert of Europe.

Silly.

Yes this thread can be sumarazied in three letter:

ASB
 
The scenario is silly. Three quarters of the Austrian army got away in ok order at Koniggratz, and if during the ensuing ceasefire the Prussians start making ridiculous and anachronistic demands like the complete annexation of Austria and Bohemia, it is now a war of dynastic and imperial survival.

So the Austrians call up everyone that dodged the first mobilization thru exemptions, sick leave etc. Albrecht marches north with his victorious forces from the Italian front, unifies with Benedek and the Prussians get to try it again against a larger Austrian army than the first time. Except this time the Austrians have the support of the other Great powers of Europe, because Prussia is attempting to destroy the concert of Europe.

Silly.


Silly if they try to do it all at once.

If they do what their King wanted to do, and just claim Saxony and the Sudetenland (in return perhaps annexing less from the other German states), I don't see that causing a general war. Napoleon III didn't want to fight, and didn't like the Austrians anyway. Nor did the Tsar.

The only way it could happen is in two stages. If the settlement detailed above leaves Franz Joseph sufficiently bitter and twisted, he may throw caution to the winds and intervene in the war of 1870. I think the odds are against it, but in addition to his own loss of territory, having to allow the dispossession of his faithful Saxon ally would be a deep affront to his sense of honour, so it can't be totally ruled out. In that event, with France flat on its back, the only ruler in a position to act is the Tsar, who will probably be reluctant to fight alone.

However, I suspect it's all academic, and that even then the Germans would settle for a border province - Tyrol, maybe, to encourage Bavaria into the new German Empire - and wouldn't want the Habsburg Monarchy to collapse altogether.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Silly if they try to do it all at once.

If they do what their King wanted to do, and just claim Saxony and the Sudetenland (in return perhaps annexing less from the other German states), I don't see that causing a general war. Napoleon III didn't want to fight, and didn't like the Austrians anyway. Nor did the Tsar.

The only way it could happen is in two stages. If the settlement detailed above leaves Franz Joseph sufficiently bitter and twisted, he may throw caution to the winds and intervene in the war of 1870. I think the odds are against it, but in addition to his own loss of territory, having to allow the dispossession of his faithful Saxon ally would be a deep affront to his sense of honour, so it can't be totally ruled out. In that event, with France flat on its back, the only ruler in a position to act is the Tsar, who will probably be reluctant to fight alone.

However, I suspect it's all academic, and that even then the Germans would settle for a border province - Tyrol, maybe, to encourage Bavaria into the new German Empire - and wouldn't want the Habsburg Monarchy to collapse altogether.

This is a start. But the best PoD to make Prussia do better and gain more in 1866 is to make Italy carry its own weight. This would give Prussia a good moltivation to claim more and would reduce the dangers of doing so (risks of French intervention and/or Austrian comeback). It's not difficult, Italian army and navy were actually good, it was the high command that was quite defective. Change a couple generals and an admiral, and Italy may easily win Custoza and Lissa. This changes the scenario radically for Prussia, too.

Italy would get Trento, Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia, the Prussian King and generals would feel honor-bound to claim more (Bohemia-Moravia and Saxony) for Prussia, too and woluld overrule Bismarck on this. Austria would be forced to accept a beggar's peace. Napoleon III may still threaten an intervention to limit Prussian-Italian gains, which Berlin and Florence most likely heed, although they still gain more than OTL: say Saxony and the Sudetenland for Prussia, Trento and Gorizia-Gradisca for Italy. The Franco-Prussian War most likely happens in 1867 over Luxemburg and Rome and Italy joins it and gains Nice, Savoy, and Corsica. Austria is sent on a death spiral of political instability by the humiliating defeat and collapses in the early 1870s after a botched Ausgleich attampt. Bismarck recognizes that Grossdeutchsland is inevitable and organizes the partition of Austria: German Austria, Bohemia-Moravia and Slovenia to Germany, Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia to Italy, Galicia to Russia, an independent Hungary.

A couple of TLs explore the PoD (here and here).
 
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Who was the real hero ?

All of the preceding discussions do nothing more (in my mind) except serve to illustrate what a giant figure and statesman (doer of the possible, with the most gain for the least pain) the Iron Chancellor really was.

Reviled for being a conservative (in a conservative era), he nevertheless managed to cobble together a modern relatively cohesive nation-state in the center of Europe - something the French and Austrians had been actively working against for 250+ years; e. g. since before the beginning of the Thirty Years War (1618).

The shame of it is that the Hohenzollern red-headed step child (Kaiser 1888-1918) managed to piss it away in less than 45 years and leave Germany trying to figure out who it was for the next 50 years - much to the ruination of Europe and aggrandizement of France and the Russian Communists.

berniep2
 
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All of the preceding discussions do nothing more (in my mind) except serve to illustrate what a giant figure and statesman (doer of the possible, with the most gain for the least pain) the Iron Chancellor really was.

Reviled for being a conservative (in a conservative era), he nevertheless managed to cobble together a modern relatively cohesive nation-state in the center of Europe - something the French and Austrians had been actively working against for 250+ years; e. g. since before the beginning of the Thirty Years War (1618).

The shame of it is that the Hohenzollern red-headed step child (Kaiser 1888-1918) managed to piss it away in less than 45 years and leave Germany trying to figure out who it was for the next 50 years - much to the ruination of Europe and aggrandizement of France and the Russian Communists.



Mind you, Bismarck did his bit toward making Wilhelm II what he was - turning him against his liberal parents every chance he got.

He also didn't help matters by getting Germany into that alliance with Austria Hungary (Wilhelm I, left to himself, would probably have preferred Russia as an ally). His attempts to have it both ways with the Reinsurance Treaty were never very promising.

In short, Bismarck was certainly a Great Man, but like a lot of Great Men, he left behind as many problems as he solved.
 
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archaeogeek

Banned
Bismarck was also an expansionist, his foreign policy, even if he hadn't been dismissed, would also eventually have reached a point of "pissing it away".
 

Eurofed

Banned
Bismarck was indeed one of the best Western statesmen of the 19th century, if not ever, but there are two deeply flawed foreign politics decisions that laid the basis for Germany's defeat in WWI, the naval race with Britain and the tight alliance with Austria-Hungary. For the former, Bismarck carries little to none responsibility, but for the latter, he shares a great deal of guilt. The preferential alliance with A-H alienated Russia and Italy, which could have been good and reliable allies otherwise, and blocked the fulfilling of German national unification.

While complete destruction of Austria in 1866 was indeed too risky without Italy doing its part and with a France still strong, he could have indeed inflicted an harsher peace opn Austria and pursued the breakup of Austria in combination with Russia and Italy in the 1870s, ensuring the creation of Grossdeutchsland and a stable Quadruple Alliance of Greater Germany, Russia, Greater Italy, Greater Hungary, which would have had good chances of cowing Britain and France and avoiding WWI entirely. Or at least, even if Austria survivived, inverting his diplomatic system, a stable Triple Alliance with Russia and Italy, and a Reinsurance Treaty with Austria, to be discarded later, would have ensured much better chances for Germany in a WWI.

A WWI victory by a German-Russian-Italian CP team would have avoided a great deal of 20th century tragedies to Europe (although of course the breakup of the Ottoman Empire would have most likely ensured, with the later fuel for Islamism that it implied, and totalitarianism could have easily developed in defeated France instead).
 
The problem with a russo-german alliance here, is the same as in OTL, after Russia industrializes, Germany will be the junior partner in an alliance she created, not something to be desired and even worse, the germans knew it too.
 
I Miss you

No this shittu again

You always copy-paste that 'excuse'(most rant) than the austrias was the responsable of all the italians calamities...:rolleyes:

IN OTL Bismarck Even know than the Insurrance Treaty was unkeepable in the future... now only for the Industrial Background(Cbr's comment) but some Geopolitical & Geostrategy One.

Germany is in the Worst Strategy position in the world(trapped in all way in the Victorian Era... both France and Britain in the West, Russia In the East, Austria in the South,and in the North both the Denmark & Sweden) the allies she take... alineated the Rest, but the worse problem is that... besides Austria, the another nations have some kind of plans or cons for alliance.

France is Out for obvious reason, the Same the British(Continental Dominance), and the Russian for that reason but opposite(than you gonna make a Titan who even can Stabbed in the Back if you make him too strong),and even the russian have some plan for posen and little bordier areas....

In OTL the mistake was not Chose Austria... was CHOSE ITALY, Bismarck Now than italy was a minor GP, And in the Position can help in a war against france(and even all the General Staff--fcfoSchilfredplancfcocf), and what happen.... your lovely Italy wash their hand of the Alliance for their own Greddiness and later stabbe in the back for that one. and you can deny that, you know for geostrategy Austria in the Industrial Era can strike Both Silesia and Saxony(some importan industrial and transport hub) and the Pan-germanist was a fringe movement who both side never care.

AGAIN like i said before... this topic can be Summarise in the Letter;

ASB

If the Prussian Goverment have plans like that... even both Britain and France can join in Support of Austria, and that means game over for both Prussia and in that extend, your lovely Italy. All Bismarck Actions were the most correct and safe one in OTL. than in the era of Imperialism the big four empire(Britain,Germany,Russia,France) Plotting against other is natural and inevitable
 

Eurofed

Banned
The problem with a russo-german alliance here, is the same as in OTL, after Russia industrializes, Germany will be the junior partner in an alliance she created, not something to be desired and even worse, the germans knew it too.

Actually, this was never a realistic risk. Even in WWII, when Russia had industrialized, its industrial potential was at best comparable to the German one.

You always copy-paste that 'excuse'(most rant) than the austrias was the responsable of all the italians calamities...:rolleyes:

Actually, I was at present arguing that post-1848 Austria was responsible of many calamities of Germany. :p

France is Out for obvious reason, the Same the British(Continental Dominance), and the Russian for that reason but opposite(than you gonna make a Titan who even can Stabbed in the Back if you make him too strong),and even the russian have some plan for posen and little bordier areas....

The only fundamental stumbling block for an Anglo-German alliance was the naval rivalry, and Russia was never going to become so strong that it would dwarf a Germany that has not been gutted 1945-style. Tsarist Russia never had serious expansionist plans on German territory.

In OTL the mistake was not Chose Austria... was CHOSE ITALY, Bismarck Now than italy was a minor GP, And in the Position can help in a war against france(and even all the General Staff--fcfoSchilfredplancfcocf), and what happen.... your lovely Italy wash their hand of the Alliance for their own Greddiness and later stabbe in the back for that one.

I notice your Italophobia is up to date as always. :rolleyes::p Italy would never ever betray an Anglo-German or German-Russian alliance, both because the alternative would always look like the loser side, and because both of its traditional rivals and enemies (Austria and France) would be in the enemy bloc.

and you can deny that, you know for geostrategy Austria in the Industrial Era can strike Both Silesia and Saxony(some importan industrial and transport hub)

:rolleyes: So what ? Austria would be doomed in such a conflict, trapped between Germany (which could and would easily take a defensive stance in the West and adopt an "Austria First" strategy), Italy (ditto), Russia, Serbia, and Romania. Vienna would fall much, much before the Habsburg can do anything serious against Germany.

As it concerns the original topic, I myself agree that Prussia alone going for too much in 1866 was too risky, because Sadowa did not gut Austrian fighting potential entirely (the army of Italy was still standing) and because France could intervene (not Britain, sorry. It would never upturn the balance of power anywhere enough to make Britain make a 180° turn on its traditional support of German and Italian unification both for political reasons and because it was a useful balance on the power of France and Russia). This is why I argue the most feasible PoD to make Prussia do better in 1866 is to make Italy win a decisive victory on land and sea, which is easy to accomplish, sicne the bulk of Italian military was good, it was an handful of commanders that were defective, so that Austrian fighting potential is wholly wiped out (and the Habsburg empire is pushed that much close toward the brink of domestic instability) and France has more problems making an intervention. Having said that, I agree that the threat of French intervention would still be enough to make Berlin and Florence tone down their requests in the end (this is still a period where France was assumed to be rather stronger than it actually showed up to be in the battlefield). But Prussia and Italy would still necessarily gain more than IOTL, and this would set a butterfly chain into motion by which Grossdeutchsland would most likely ensue.
 
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The problem with a russo-german alliance here, is the same as in OTL, after Russia industrializes, Germany will be the junior partner in an alliance she created, not something to be desired and even worse, the germans knew it too.

That's not something that would occur until well into the 20th century. It should hardly be the basis for Germany's diplomatic policy in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
 
Eurofed Rant.

For that i said i miss you;), in general you accuse me of Italophobia, but your virulent Austro/Slavo/Russo and more realistic Latinophobia is worse than me(I only said than your ultra wanking italy are that.. ) who only critize the historical developmt(who Betray the Protocol of the Alliance in the most critical hour, you demand some territory for their ally in this worse moment and later stabbe in the back for that territory and their dreams of false glory, and a long etc....) rather hate for nothing.

Again, you know you never listen to us anyway, but again is topic is over.. the Premise is ASB, That will invoke the wrath of the another major power for any kind of action(even Britain was pro-habsburg, the unification care little to them.. even they fear a lot the German one.. who proved to be, not was the naval race.. was the economical race who the british empire was losing in both side against) and means the end of Prussia.

In fact the OTL actions was the most likely outcome for that, even in OTL if Austria have change only their rifles.. the war can be lose by prussia(bismarck fears)-
 
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