Austrian Hapsburg doesn't rule Hungary after Mohac 1526

Lord Protector;11054808 Im still firmly convinced that if the moron lives longer he will cause more harm than good said:
Well, have to defend him, IMHO you are quitea bit misinformed.

The charge, you mentioned in your earlier post, was not exactly a reckless moronic thing. After the main cavalry body flunked their things up, he (and the reseve) had prettymuch two options: intervene and try to save the day.. somehow.. or watch the cavalry perish, and after that, the footsoldiers too.

As for his death: foul play cannot be ruled out, but by occam, drowning is the most likely reason. drowning, in full armor, in a flooding stream, felling from a horse, pretty much abandoned by everyone. Not a facepalm situation, except that he was pretty much alone and abandoned.

But, lets play with the idea, he did not fell down from the horse and drown, but survived and reaches a safe place.

First of all, he still have some (well, theoritically the same size lost at Mohács) army as before (Szapolyai, the bohemians, the croats). But after such a devastating defeat, asking for terms is inevitable, and whatever hars terms Suleiman demands, he would have been accepted those. Some kind of vassalage is not out of the question.

But, he is alive and kicking, so, the most important thing, that there is no dual crowning and certeanyl no civil war! He still have an intact powerbase in the form of Bohemia, great deal of the magnates of dead and quite possible, that he would have been lost his faith in the remaining ones (since the badly organized campaign, the battle accepted and lost was not really his idea).
As per historical paralells, his situation would have been quite paralell to IV. Béla after muhi, so a serious modernization and kracking of heads would have been likely.
 
Louis' father Vladislav was sixty at his death, his grandfather Kasimir was sixty-five, his great-grandfather Jagiello was ~seventy.

Let's give Louis, born in 1506, a total of sixty years, so he lives until 1566. In OTL, Maria of Castilia died in 1558.

These forty additional years will probably see him trying to strengthen the royal power in Bohemia and rump Hungary against the local magnates. I think it plausible that he will not risk an open split with Rome, but his Kingdoms of Bohemia and Hungary will be as tolerant as the PLC. The interactions with his Wettin neighbors in Saxony (especially Moritz) will be very interesting, the whole political development of the Corpus Evangelicorum and the Schmalkaldic League (and the Schmalkaldic War) might be different.

As said before, having Maria unavailable for the Governorship of the Netherlands might influence and change the trends that led to the 80YW in OTL. One (cracy?) idea: Without Bohemia, Hungary and Croatia, Austria is gar less important. Might Charles offer the governorship (not hereditary possession!) of the Netherlands to his brother Ferdinand of Austria?
 
Louis II negotiating some form vassalage to Ottomans is likely in TTL. But considering Louis’s personality, I wonder how long he stays loyal to Suleiman. Would Louis wait until he had built a coalition with his brothers in law, Poland, the pope, and possibly Venice before rebelling? Or would he try to fight the Ottomans with just his own resources? It is possible that in TTL, that Louis might see Mohacs as a moment of truth, and listen to the sound council of his wife. Mary, by all historical accounts, actually knew what needed to be done to combat both the Ottomans and the Hungarian nobles. If Louis were to listen to his wife, reform and strengthen his power base of Bohemia and rump Hungary, and form a defensive alliance against the Ottomans, he might be able to preserve his dynasty’s rule long enough to eventually expel the Ottomans from Hungary in TTL.

As for the regency of the Netherlands in TTL, I could see Ferdinand being offered the position by Charles. However, if the personality of TTL’s Philip II were anything like OTL’s Philip II, then the people of the Netherlands might prefer the rule of Ferdinand (and his sons).
 
The hereditary possession of the Burgundian Circle would depend on dynastic developments. If not much changes (by which I mean Charles fathers more legitimate sons), then ITTL Charles might be more inclined upon giving it to his daughter Mary, when she marries Maximilian, the eldest son of Ferdinand.

The Habsburgs might need it too, since without Bohemia, they lack an electorate, even though their by this point legitimized position as archduke gives them most of the other privileges enjoyed by the prince-electors.
 
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Louis II negotiating some form vassalage to Ottomans is likely in TTL. But considering Louis’s personality, I wonder how long he stays loyal to Suleiman. Would Louis wait until he had built a coalition with his brothers in law, Poland, the pope, and possibly Venice before rebelling? Or would he try to fight the Ottomans with just his own resources? It is possible that in TTL, that Louis might see Mohacs as a moment of truth, and listen to the sound council of his wife. Mary, by all historical accounts, actually knew what needed to be done to combat both the Ottomans and the Hungarian nobles. If Louis were to listen to his wife, reform and strengthen his power base of Bohemia and rump Hungary, and form a defensive alliance against the Ottomans, he might be able to preserve his dynasty’s rule long enough to eventually expel the Ottomans from Hungary in TTL.

As for the regency of the Netherlands in TTL, I could see Ferdinand being offered the position by Charles. However, if the personality of TTL’s Philip II were anything like OTL’s Philip II, then the people of the Netherlands might prefer the rule of Ferdinand (and his sons).

How long? Well... when he felt ready. And after such a humilitating defeat, when he narrowly escaped, he would had to be damn sure, if he is ready or not.

Oh, as for rump Hungary, with hindsight, nope, not yet. Suleiman did not annexed/occupied much land (more or less the area near Nándorfehérvár/Belgrád) until 1541, after Szapolyai de facto lost.

Coalition. Well, Poland is a tricky one, they just had a peace treaty with the Ottomans and as far as i know/remember, they had their problems or soon will have their problems. Venice... is far from the ideal coalition partner, they had too much trade interest at stake with the ottomans, and an ally of France (the french-HRE wars over italy, the whole cognac thing is pretty much determines everything.)

So, the only suitable ally is Charles and Ferdinand, if they and Louis is willing and ready, but waaay too butterflies here i think. Without them (or, well, Charles), he would not do anything... maybe in case of a Vienna siege.
 
In TTL, even if Louis II were to listen to his wife and rule his kingdoms in a sensible fashion, he would still find reforming Bohemia and Hungary a difficult task. The nobility of both Bohemia and Hungary would guard their traditional rights so zealously that I doubt they would allow any king to enact the reforms necessary to defend against the Ottomans. In OTL, the Hapsburgs took advantage of the Ottoman threat to increase royal power in both Bohemia and rump Hungary. In TTL, the nobles might respond to Louis’s attempts to increase royal power by not electing his heir king of Hungary and/or Bohemia. In TTL, Ferdinand’s heirs might attempt to win election to the thrones of Bohemia and Hungary.
 
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