Austrian gains in a CP victory?

Let's not get into specifics, but let's assume a fairly late but decisive CP victory where the opposing sides are mostly unchanged. I often see a lot of discussion about what land Germany would take either directly or make into puppet states but less so about Austria. So I thought I'd start a discussion about that.

I'll start by putting forth a few countries AH might seek territory from or influence in.

Montenegro: I think Austria wouldn't try to annex to much of the country. Maybe the rest of the coastline and a few important mountains for defensive reasons, but I doubt they could keep the entire country under control if they tried to take it all. Rather they'd leave a rump state which they'd then exert diplomatic pressure over.

Albania: I think Austria would try to establish a puppet Kingdom here, but they'd be vying for influence there with Germany. A rebellion seems likely soon and I don't know if Austria would be able to keep their influence there for very long.

Romania: I've seen maps with Austria occupying half or all of Romania in some CP victories but this seems very unlikely to me. Most likely I think Austria would occupy some important mountain passes here aswell. They'd probably try to exert diplomatic influence here aswell but Germany would be much more dominant, especially since Romania is important for oil.

Serbia: If Austria is to concentrate it's force anywhere I think it would be here. I think Austria would try to create a puppet Serbian state if possible, but that may very well be impossible to keep under control. Alternatively, I could see Austria annexing Belgrade and the territory around it (recreating the medieval banat of Belgrade perhaps), it was Serbia's only real major city and annexing it would leave Serbia an absolute tiny power, especially if Bulgaria occupies much of eastern Serbia/Macedonia as well. In any case I don't think Serbian terrorism in AH will stop anytime soon.

Italy: In some CP victory maps I see AH annexing much of the Veneto region, sometimes even re-creating the kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia. I think this is way beyond the capability of Austria-Hungary and I also think Germany would like to try keeping Italy as a possible future ally after the war. In the Alps I can once again see some border adjustments to give Austria a better defensible border, I could also see Austria annex some of the Friuli regions, especially the regions with many Slovenians in them because they were usually loyal subjects of the Empire.

Poland/Ukraine: In Galicia and Lodomeria I think Austria would be interested in making gains but I doubt they'd get anything except for perhaps minor border changes. Germany would want to keep it's newly formed "puppet" governments loyal and not carve up their territory for an ally that showed itself not to be very reliable.

Colonies: I can't see Austria even trying to take any colonies. I've seen ideas thrown around about Austrian Djibouti, Libya or Somaliland but if they got the French, Italian or British to evacuate any of these regions I can't see Austria asserting control over them in anything but name.

And that's it I think. I doubt AH would be interested in territory of other countries than those listed above. What do you all think? Would AH have had greater ambitions than what I suggested here?
 
It depends a lot on how influential Austria-Hungary is in the overall victory. By the end of the war, their army was more or less an auxiliary force to the Germans. If they avoid some of the disasters and their army remains strong and independent, their influence and gains in the peace will be much larger. Say for example that the losses in Galizia early war are less and they do not lose Przemysl, Gorlice-Tarnow has a stronger Austro-Hungarian presence and Conrad does not mount his offensive in Italy 1916, meaning more resources are available to blunt the Brusilov offensive, causing the Russians more casualties and the Austro-Hungarians less.

After Russia and Romania have surrendered and Serbia is occupied, Austria-Hungary can support the Bulgarians at Thessaloniki and keep the Italians in Albania under pressure while building up for an offensive akin to Caporetto but one that has enough resources to actually break the Italians.

If the Austro-Hungarians have a larger part in the destruction of the Russian army (and the following collapse of Imperial Russia) and the destruction of Serbia, Romania and Italy and manage to prop up the Bulgarians without much German help and then do most of the work in knocking Italy out of the war, their position at the peace table will be much stronger.

I could see them getting Ukraine and Romania as puppet states - Moldavia will be delivered to Romania as compensation for some mountain passes and strategic positions and sizable consessions for oil and other investments in Romania and a permanent overlordship of Austria-Hungary. Some gains in Poland are quite possible - in general, the Poles considered Austria-Hungary, as a fellow catholic nation usually tolerant on language and local culture the next best option after independence.
 
It depends a lot on how influential Austria-Hungary is in the overall victory. By the end of the war, their army was more or less an auxiliary force to the Germans. If they avoid some of the disasters and their army remains strong and independent, their influence and gains in the peace will be much larger.

What if their army was weakened close to as much as in otl? Would they be able to take anything in your opinion or would peace be totally dictated by Germany?
 
Colonies: I can't see Austria even trying to take any colonies. I've seen ideas thrown around about Austrian Djibouti, Libya or Somaliland but if they got the French, Italian or British to evacuate any of these regions I can't see Austria asserting control over them in anything but name.
They will, those would be the 'true' austrian gains besides some more defensible border corrections, Austria wanted colonies too but joined too late into colonial game anyway
 
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