Austria-Yugoslavian military conflict in the 1990s.

[Sulemain]

I was reading this:

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/07/01/w...-to-withdraw-troops-from-slovenia-border.html

And it got me thinking about a possible Austria vs Yugoslavia/Serbia military conflict in the 1990s; how would this go about, possible military action, etc?

 

[ajross]

It's the obvious question but it needs to be asked: Why? What possible aims could either side have? Austria's only priorities were making sure we didn't get involved, and even if for some reason they'd wanted to I'm fairly sure Belgrade had a number of more pressing issues to deal with anyway. You could certainly have some sort of incident or outrage (IIRC from what I remember reading I was more surprised there wasn't one at some stage*) but while that might lengthen/shorten our dithering on recognising the new states depending on the side responsible it seems pretty far-fetched for it to go beyond that.

That said I have always found it rather odd that what by all accounts was a fairly solidly executed operation on the Bundesheer side still involved sending conscripts who in some cases had only just completed their basic training to what would have been the frontline. So the potential for it to get not pretty quite quickly if things do actually escalate is there at least.

* Well, OTL did give us Holmec which is actually rather interesting to this day but Austrian involvement in that was minimal.

 

[Sulemain]

It's the obvious question but it needs to be asked: Why? What possible aims could either side have? Austria's only priorities were making sure we didn't get involved, and even if for some reason they'd wanted to I'm fairly sure Belgrade had a number of more pressing issues to deal with anyway. You could certainly have some sort of incident or outrage (IIRC from what I remember reading I was more surprised there wasn't one at some stage*) but while that might lengthen/shorten our dithering on recognising the new states depending on the side responsible it seems pretty far-fetched for it to go beyond that.

That said I have always found it rather odd that what by all accounts was a fairly solidly executed operation on the Bundesheer side still involved sending conscripts who in some cases had only just completed their basic training to what would have been the frontline. So the potential for it to get not pretty quite quickly if things do actually escalate is there at least.

* Well, OTL did give us Holmec which is actually rather interesting to this day but Austrian involvement in that was minimal.

I was thinking a clash between the Slovenes and Serbians/Yugoslavian forces on the Austrian border that gets way out of hand, or Slovenian troops/militia retreating/fleeing into Austria and the Yugoslavians/Serbians chasing them,with things spiralling from there.

 

[ajross]

I was thinking a clash between the Slovenes and Serbians/Yugoslavian forces on the Austrian border that gets way out of hand, or Slovenian troops/militia retreating/fleeing into Austria and the Yugoslavians/Serbians chasing them,with things spiralling from there.

You pretty much had that in OTL - next to airports border posts were for reasons both of strategy and legitimacy one of the highest priorities for both sides so naturally they saw some of the heaviest fighting. I'm fairly sure I remember one case of the latter as well but I can't seem to find a source for it right now so hold off for now. So what exactly does that spiral into?

As I think we can rule out a Slovenian attack, the other question is still what on earth a Yugoslav leadership is disarray would be seeking to achieve by acquiring another enemy when the situation was collapsing around it already. Remember even Ten-Day War is overegging it, the whole affair didn't even last aweek.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I was reading this:

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/07/01/w...-to-withdraw-troops-from-slovenia-border.html

And it got me thinking about a possible Austria vs Yugoslavia/Serbia military conflict in the 1990s; how would this go about, possible military action, etc?

If the Yugoslavian government decides to continue fighting for Slovenia (really unlikely given the government's true goals) it's possible. Some poorly aimed artillery fire could provoke an Austrian intervention, or Austrian-Slovenes could start smuggling weapons to the Slovenian militiamen leading to the JNA detaining or killing some Austrian nationals again provoking an intervention.

 

[thezerech]

If the Yugoslavian government decides to continue fighting for Slovenia (really unlikely given the government's true goals) it's possible. Some poorly aimed artillery fire could provoke an Austrian intervention, or Austrian-Slovenes could start smuggling weapons to the Slovenian militiamen leading to the JNA detaining or killing some Austrian nationals again provoking an intervention.

I think a minor incident is certainly possible, let's say a rogue artillery shell kills a picnicing family of five across the border and the Serbs refuse to apologise what is Vienna reaction?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I think a minor incident is certainly possible, let's say a rogue artillery shell kills a picnicing family of five across the border and the Serbs refuse to apologise what is Vienna reaction?

I'm not familiar with the status of Austria's government or military at the time.

 

[Danishbro]

I'm not familiar with the status of Austria's government or military at the time.

President Waldheim was a former Nazi and former Secretary-General of the United Nations. Whether of not the shadow of his alleged Nazi War Crimes would make him more or less inclined to invade Yugoslavia, I can see the intentional news framing him as some-kind of modern Hitler. But Austria was already a border-line Pariah nation at the time because of Waldheim.

On the other hand Austria's Declaration of Neutrality, which has been an embedded part of its Constitution since 1955, would maybe influence it against aiding Serbia or other forces in a Yugoslavia conflict. The standing army at the time was 15,000 career soldiers supplemented by 8-month conscript, who were on standby in case the Cold War turned hot.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

President Waldheim was a former Nazi and former Secretary-General of the United Nations. Whether of not the shadow of his alleged Nazi War Crimes would make him more or less inclined to invade Yugoslavia, I can see the intentional news framing him as some-kind of modern Hitler. But Austria was already a border-line Pariah nation at the time because of Waldheim.

On the other hand Austria's Declaration of Neutrality, which has been an embedded part of its Constitution since 1955, would maybe influence it against aiding Serbia or other forces in a Yugoslavia conflict. The standing army at the time was 15,000 career soldiers supplemented by 8-month conscript, who were on standby in case the Cold War turned hot.

Really? Wikipedia says that in 1993 the Austrian army had 46,000 men of which 19,500 were conscripts.

 

[thezerech]

Really? Wikipedia says that in 1993 the Austrian army had 46,000 men of which 19,500 were conscripts.

That seems more than enough for a small punitive border excursion which is what I was suggesting.

President Waldheim was a former Nazi and former Secretary-General of the United Nations. Whether of not the shadow of his alleged Nazi War Crimes would make him more or less inclined to invade Yugoslavia, I can see the intentional news framing him as some-kind of modern Hitler. But Austria was already a border-line Pariah nation at the time because of Waldheim.

On the other hand Austria's Declaration of Neutrality, which has been an embedded part of its Constitution since 1955, would maybe influence it against aiding Serbia or other forces in a Yugoslavia conflict. The standing army at the time was 15,000 career soldiers supplemented by 8-month conscript, who were on standby in case the Cold War turned hot.

Waldheim was definitivly cleared of participation in any war crimes last time I checked. I don't think people would respond more negativly to Kurt Waldheim than Slobodan Milosevic, certainly not diplomatically despite Waldheim's international unpopularity.

 

[Danishbro]

Really? Wikipedia says that in 1993 the Austrian army had 46,000 men of which 19,500 were conscripts.

My bad, I was going off the personal available in an emergency situation.

Waldheim was definitivly cleared of participation in any war crimes last time I checked. I don't think people would respond more negativly to Kurt Waldheim than Slobodan Milosevic, certainly not diplomatically despite Waldheim's international unpopularity.

Regardless of what a committee put together by the Austrian Government found, the international community would be able to use his past against him if he were to engage in a conflict with Yugoslavia. During Waldheim's presidency the only nations that visited Austria were basically Eastern Bloc or Middle Eastern, and he couldn't visit other countries without protests.

Also, in contrast with Milošević, Austrian was a Western, democractic, capitalist nation, with a history of conquest, led by someone with connections with a regime so horrible it's very name has entered the lexicon as a definition of evil. Milošević was a former communist in a 2nd World former communist nation, in a region home to frequent civil unrest.... and Milošević was charged with war crimes! How much more negatively do you think anyone would respond? I don't that will happen to Waldheim. I don't think he could commit war crimes if he wanted to.

But I do think an Austrian conflict (or even Austrian mobilization on the border following the refusal of Belgrade to apologize for the accidental death of the Austrian family killed by a stray shell) would negatively affect Austria's intentional image, perhaps even to this day. It just looks too much like the beginning of WWII when Hitler was looking for flimsy rational to invade neighboring countries. People around the world will think Austria was released from occupation to easily, the leadership and populace wasn't properly de-nazified.

Not saying it couldn't happen, that's just my thoughts on the outcome, I'm fairly certain Austrian would win any military engagement with border forces, and what I mentioned above would be the consequences.

 

[Othala]

I'm certain there was an incident, but I can't find it anymore. IIRC Slovene militias attacked a border guard manned by the Yugoslav army, while on the other side of the boarder the Austrian public television was filming or even broadcasting live for their evening news. That certainly could spiral a bit further out of control than it did OTL.
In the quick research I did I found something interesting. The Austrian Minister of Defense was very reluctant to call up militia or reserve troops, because they claim they knew that Yugoslav troops were told they were moved north because Austria was gathering troops for an invasion. If they read the mood right early enough they might push for an external enemy before a civil war broke out?

When it comes down to it however, I doubt there would be any serious conflict. Some border clashes maybe, but public opinion and the Austrian legal situation (Neutrality laws) would make it very unlikely that anything beyond that happens. Maybe peacekeeping beyond the boarder? But outright attacks are very very unlikely.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

What is more likely is such an incident occurring with Hungary. IIRC there were a number of incursions by Yugoslav airforce (at one point maybe even a dogfight with Hungarian Air Force?) and even the shelling of a village on the Hungarian side. I believe Hungarian reservists were even called up.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

The President of Austria is much less significant than the chancellor.

Conflict spilling out of Yugoslavia moves things into the wrath of god territory.

Austria may find it acquires a really big air forces in 20minute blocks.

 

[KACKO]

If the Yugoslavian government decides to continue fighting for Slovenia (really unlikely given the government's true goals) it's possible. Some poorly aimed artillery fire could provoke an Austrian intervention, or Austrian-Slovenes could start smuggling weapons to the Slovenian militiamen leading to the JNA detaining or killing some Austrian nationals again provoking an intervention.

Ha. I heard stories from people who were there weapons were smuggled from Austria anyway. Story was Lubljana bought new garbage collection trucks from Austria and they come fully equipped... With weapons for militia.

Also I believe at least once Austrian fighters were scrambled agianst Yugoslav MiG's in Austrian air space.

 

[thezerech]

What is more likely is such an incident occurring with Hungary. IIRC there were a number of incursions by Yugoslav airforce (at one point maybe even a dogfight with Hungarian Air Force?) and even the shelling of a village on the Hungarian side. I believe Hungarian reservists were even called up.

I could totally see the Hungarians just invading Yugoslavia. I'm not sure how they were in the early 90s but I'm sure they were in better shape than the Serbs.

I wonder if an Austrian mission to help secure Slovenian independence would be at all feasible, if Yugoslavia starts doing some really obscene things, or maybe if it starts to seem like the regime might be able to hold things together and might try and retaliate against Austria? It seems farfatched to be sure, but I don't think an Austrian peace keeping mission is that unfeasable.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

I could totally see the Hungarians just invading Yugoslavia. I'm not sure how they were in the early 90s but I'm sure they were in better shape than the Serbs.

Apparently they had about 100000 men (I assume no complete mobilization would take place, they still had conscription though), with the usual Warsaw Pact "Big 7" equipment with a very high number of BTRs. Air force had MiG-21s, MiG-23s and SU-22 along with Hinds and Hips. Overall, your usual Warsaw Pact army that did not start to reduce their numbers just yet. I believe they could project force into Voivodina if they really wanted. The Yugoslavs probably have a larger army but it's in a terrible shape and the Hungarians can concentrate their forces into a narrow front.

 

[Archibald]

Austria air force was a joke. Not that the Drakken was a bad aircraft in its days, but it was obsolete. Also the Austrian didn't had many of them.
I vaguely remember there was a post WWII law that said Austria shouldn't had any kind of missiles, so the Drakkens only had guns.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_Air_Force

Since 1955, Austria's armed forces had been forbidden to operate any guided missile system, including Air-to-air missiles and surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). In the post-Cold War environment, and with gun-armed aircraft a relic of a past age, the Austrian Parliament voted to amend this section of its state treaty and in January 1993 modern AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles were ordered from Sweden to arm its fighter aircraft.[2] A higher performance model of the Sidewinder were purchased directly from the United States; deliveries began in 1995. French Mistral SAMs were purchased to add ground-based protection against air attack. The first Mistrals arrived in 1993 and final deliveries were concluded in 1996.

I think the air war would be... interesting.

 

[Clandango]

When Yugoslavia broke down, it was every group for themself, though some tried to keep things together. I don't believe the Serbs even bothered fighting for Macedonia, so why go for Slovenia? I suppose it might be a good excuse to get soldiers onto the other side of Croatia, but the Serbians didn't want all of Croatia, just the parts Serbs were in. Even if Croats were there. Just adding that since I expect someone else would if I didn't. Anyways, having Austria be even more flagrant with their denial of responsibility for the Holocaust (with many blaming Jews asking for their possessions back at trying to take advantage of the country) would help a little, though by 1990 it was seen as rather in the past. Need to find ways for the Austrian leadership to publicly scoff about the occupation of Slovenia during WWII. Maybe also have them as returning to the post WWII complaining about the Italians getting South Tyrol back (I imagine most Austrians generally just stayed quite about the whole thing since four countries were occupying them). Perhaps some records of corruptoin in the Klagenfurt plebiscite can be found? When it was revealed that the British representative to the Venezuela-Guyana border dispute had told the American one they already bribed the neutral representative (thus the American and Venezuelan{not sure if they were represented, actually} went along with the current border to avoid the tribunal giving more land to the British) leading to Venezuela reopening their old claims. Frankly, I always think the Slovenes got the short end of the stick in Yugoslavia for territory. Anyways, how about we have the Austrians rattling sabres about northern South Tyrol, the Yugoslavs never giving up their renewed claim to Klagenfurt after the war, plus something with Trieste. And of course changes need to be made to the acceptance of the Austrian government to Slovene language institutions. Perhaps they also reclassify some Slovenes as Wends? None of this is especially realistic, especially without working from WWII onwardto change the mood.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

When Yugoslavia broke down, it was every group for themself, though some tried to keep things together. I don't believe the Serbs even bothered fighting for Macedonia, so why go for Slovenia? I suppose it might be a good excuse to get soldiers onto the other side of Croatia, but the Serbians didn't want all of Croatia, just the parts Serbs were in. Even if Croats were there. Just adding that since I expect someone else would if I didn't. Anyways, having Austria be even more flagrant with their denial of responsibility for the Holocaust (with many blaming Jews asking for their possessions back at trying to take advantage of the country) would help a little, though by 1990 it was seen as rather in the past. Need to find ways for the Austrian leadership to publicly scoff about the occupation of Slovenia during WWII. Maybe also have them as returning to the post WWII complaining about the Italians getting South Tyrol back (I imagine most Austrians generally just stayed quite about the whole thing since four countries were occupying them). Perhaps some records of corruptoin in the Klagenfurt plebiscite can be found? When it was revealed that the British representative to the Venezuela-Guyana border dispute had told the American one they already bribed the neutral representative (thus the American and Venezuelan{not sure if they were represented, actually} went along with the current border to avoid the tribunal giving more land to the British) leading to Venezuela reopening their old claims. Frankly, I always think the Slovenes got the short end of the stick in Yugoslavia for territory. Anyways, how about we have the Austrians rattling sabres about northern South Tyrol, the Yugoslavs never giving up their renewed claim to Klagenfurt after the war, plus something with Trieste. And of course changes need to be made to the acceptance of the Austrian government to Slovene language institutions. Perhaps they also reclassify some Slovenes as Wends? None of this is especially realistic, especially without working from WWII onwardto change the mood.

Bringing up Austrian Nazi past in 1991 in connection of the Yugoslav wars is not very realistic outside of some Serbian government propaganda. Any claims on South Tyrol are ASB.