Austria wins 1859 war against France and Piedmont

TruthfulPanda

Gone Fishin'
Which begs the question: How does this play out over the next decade? With a stronger Austria and no Italian ally, do the Prussians risk war with Austria in 1866? Do the Prussians and the Russians ally to bring Austria down? Does Austria unite Germany under a more lose confederation than Prussia's? is there ever a Franco Prussian war and if so, does France lose?
I'm more or less with Tibi (and others) here.
If Austria in 1859 gets a freak crushing victory over the Franco-Piemontese forces, other things staying same, I can see:
- France still demanding and getting Savoy proper and Nice
- this weakens the Casa di Savoia's credentials even further than in OTL
1864 happens as in OTL.
Then come 1866 - Prussia still beats Austria; in OTL the events of the Italian front did not matter at all. Here maybe France comes for a re-play? France involved or not, I can imagine at this point Piemont gaining Lombardy, Modena, Parma and Toscany. The Veneto/Friuli is a bridge too far, I'd venture. Maybe even the OTL portion of the Papal States also falls into Piemontese hands?
However, the Two Sicilies remain independent.
Then in 1870 - with an OTL Franco-Prussian War - there could be a war between the Italian states over Rome. Could Piemont win it and annex Rome? Why not?
But win and annex the Two Sicilies - this is IMO much less likely.
Maybe in such a scenario Austria would intervene in defense of the Pope (or rather - to prevent Piemont-Italy from becoming too strong)? And thus the Appennine Peninsula ends up divided between two states ... to our time ...
 
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Then come 1866 - Prussia still beats Austria
with that POD that is butterfly away, he would not risk so much with such stronger austria, he might still try something against france and austria might get busy in balkans and accept Kleindeutchland as default.
 
with that POD that is butterfly away, he would not risk so much with such stronger austria, he might still try something against france and austria might get busy in balkans and accept Kleindeutchland as default.


I agree that Prussia won't risk war if Piedmonthad been defeated. In OTL, they drew off about 80,000 Austrian troops. Austria would also be stronger ithin the German confederation. Rhough the Prussians might have more sympathy from France and Russia might be inclined to back them

On the other hand, AUstria might be in the mood to press for war on Prussia.
 
Rhough the Prussians might have more sympathy from France and Russia might be inclined to back them
the prussia used the french OTL and nappy III was trying to play as his greatuncle, with defeat in his italian gambit, he either is out or curtailed, here Russia might jump if Prussia is the attacked one not the agressor.

On the other hand, AUstria might be in the mood to press for war on Prussia.
Depends, the last thing the hasburg would do is give bismarck an excuse, but still anything can happen
 
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