Austria intervens in the Franco-Prussian War

[Eurofed]

No Italian guaranteed neutrality (since Nappy will never agree to give up the Pope) and firm opposition by the Hungarian half of the empire, but Austria still goes into the war? Even assuming that they don't know about the secret Prussian-Russian compact it is a tall demand .

Well, they didn't know about it, precisely because it was secret.

There are just two ways I see it possible: an assassination attempt against Franz Joseph mounted up by pan-German circles (or Italian irredentists) or Bismarck making up his mind and deciding that the Austrian question must be resolved in 1870. The latter is certainly almost ASBish, but I'd say that both are quite unlikely.

Agreed about the implausibility of the latter, but the former is not unlikely at all, since an assassination attempt by an Italian irredentist on Franz Joseph's life took place in 1882. We just need to anticipate this by a decade and half, not difficult at all (especially if TTL Italy did better in 1866).

 

[LordKalvan]

Agreed about the implausibility of the latter, but the former is not unlikely at all, since an assassination attempt by an Italian irredentist on Franz Joseph's life took place in 1882. We just need to anticipate this by a decade and half, not difficult at all (especially if TTL Italy did better in 1866).

But if Italy performs better in 1866, there are less incentives for an Italian irredentist to try to assassinate F-J: Trentino, Istria and Dalmazia have already been recovered.
IMHO a pan-German nationalist would make more sense.

Otherwise, the war spark should be the Italians reclaiming Rome (or threathening to, as we discussed last year). In such a case, France declares war on Italy, the German confederation declares war on France on the basis of the Prussian-Italian alliance (maybe the Southern German states stay out, since the war is notionally started by an invasion of papal territory), Austria intervenes fuelled by revanchism and spurred by the papal cry for help and Russia declares war as per the secret pact with Prussia.
IMHO this might be the most realistic way of igniting the general conflict.

 

[Eurofed]

But if Italy performs better in 1866, there are less incentives for an Italian irredentist to try to assassinate F-J: Trentino, Istria and Dalmazia have already been recovered.
IMHO a pan-German nationalist would make more sense.

Well, Italy could have done well enough to get Trento, but not well enough to get the rest. Anyway, the pan-German nationalist option is viable, too.

Otherwise, the war spark should be the Italians reclaiming Rome (or threathening to, as we discussed last year). In such a case, France declares war on Italy, the German confederation declares war on France on the basis of the Prussian-Italian alliance (maybe the Southern German states stay out, since the war is notionally started by an invasion of papal territory), Austria intervenes fuelled by revanchism and spurred by the papal cry for help and Russia declares war as per the secret pact with Prussia.
IMHO this might be the most realistic way of igniting the general conflict.

Ah, Ok, I was under the mistaken impression that you had changed your mind about the feasibility of the scenario in general. However, it is still way better if Southern Germany can be made to join the war.

 

[Mulder]

(maybe the Southern German states stay out, since the war is notionally started by an invasion of papal territory),

Why should protestant Baden and Württemberg care about the pope? Remember they had no love for either Bavaria or Austria whatsoever!

 

[LordKalvan]

Well, Italy could have done well enough to get Trento, but not well enough to get the rest. Anyway, the pan-German nationalist option is viable, too.

Ah, Ok, I was under the mistaken impression that you had changed your mind about the feasibility of the scenario in general. However, it is still way better if Southern Germany can be made to join the war.

The scenario in general is ok for me, I was just trying to make it more plausible.
I guess that for me there are two sticking points:

• Bismarck must convert to the idea of Grossdeutschland: this is not easy as it may seem, given his background and his strong aversion to incorporate too many catholics in the empire (note that this is prior to the schism: the catholics for Bismarck are papist, full stop). Maybe a better Italian performance in 1866 might convince him that keeping A-H alive is a loosing proposition; and/or the agreement on the Ausgleich is more difficult and controversial (Austria is perceived as weaker); or there is more fervent pan-German nationalism (riots in Austria and Bohemia? arrests of pan-German supporters?): there must be some reason for him to change his mind. Note that he is also likely to be unhappy with the idea of a two-front war.
• the Austrians must have a stronger incentive to enter another war (the third in a decade): revanchism is ok, maybe fuelled by a more punitive peace treaty in 1866, but maybe not enough. However the same reasons that might convince Otto to go for a Grossdeutschland (pan-Germanism, worse losses in 1866, more difficult relations with Hungarians) might work to tip the scale. IMHO the Italian intervention in Latium and the papal cry-for-help would clinch it.

Re. the southern Germans (aka Bavaria): if the spark is the Roman question, the papal squawks might make them less willing to enter the war. It's not a big deal either way, and in any case an Austrian attempt to invade would change their mind. Actually the agreement might be that they don't send troops to France but mobilise to guard against an Austrian intervention.

 

[LordKalvan]

Why should protestant Baden and Württemberg care about the pope? Remember they had to love for either Bavaria or Austria whatsoever!

I thought that Wurttenberg was half catholic and half protestant. They signed a concordat with the papacy in 1854, IIRC
Anyway if Bavaria stays on the bench, they might follow suit.

 

[Mulder]

I thought that Wurttenberg was half catholic and half protestant. They signed a concordat with the papacy in 1854, IIRC
Anyway if Bavaria stays on the bench, they might follow suit.

Württemberg maybe, but it's still unlikely IMO. Baden hated Bavarias guts and even tried to join the North Germany Confederation before 1870, but was turned down, so they will submit to Prussia willingly as soon as they get the chance. And if Bavaria is on the Austrian/French side, there is territory to gain for Baden (the Rhenish Palatinate, which IMO would prefer Badenian to Bavarian rule, especially if Bavaria tries anything funny, i.e. offering the Rhenish Palatinate or parts of it to the French, whom the Palatinians by 1866 deeply despised)

 

[Mulder]

Re. the southern Germans (aka Bavaria): if the spark is the Roman question, the papal squawks might make them less willing to enter the war. It's not a big deal either way, and in any case an Austrian attempt to invade would change their mind. Actually the agreement might be that they don't send troops to France but mobilise to guard against an Austrian intervention.

Thinking of the southern German states as an united block is rather wrong. Baden was strongly pro-Prussian and anti-Bavarian, and they will have no qualms with joining Prussia as soon as possible.

 

[LordKalvan]

Württemberg maybe, but it's still unlikely IMO. Baden hated Bavarias guts and even tried to join the North Germany Confederation before 1870, but was turned down, so they will submit to Prussia willingly as soon as they get the chance. And if Bavaria is on the Austrian/French side, there is territory to gain for Baden (the Rhenish Palatinate, which IMO would prefer Badenian to Bavarian rule, especially if Bavaria tries anything funny, i.e. offering the Rhenish Palatinate or parts of it to the French, whom the Palatinians by 1866 deeply despised)

IIRC, Napoleon III tried to woo Bavaria and Wurttenberg (not sure abt. Baden) to have them join into an anti-Prussia alliance. IOTL he was unsuccessful.

Since I'm trying to find reasons for Austria to intervene on the side of France, it might be possible that Bavaria ITTL reneges on the defensive/offensive agreement with Prussia of 1866 (also in consideration of the papal woes), while Baden and Wurttenberg side with the Kleindeutschland.

This might be an incentive for Austria to go to war.

I don't think it will change the outcome (France, Bavaria and Austria vs. Prussia, Italy and Russia), but it will certainly be a disaster for Bavaria. The most likely outcome would be end of the Wittelsbach as king of Bavaria (who might be a good replacement? Maybe Karl of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, who ITTL did not become prince of Romania since Ioan Cuza was reinstated as prince of Romania by the powers in 1867), and the Palatinate going to Baden (any other territory which might be stripped from Bavaria? Maybe something for Wurttenberg).

However the other major impact would be a reinforcement of Bismarck's anti-catholic feelings. This might result in a German empire being proclaimed but rump Bavaria and Austria are not included in it (they might become a German satellite under the above mentioned Karl of H-S, and possibly be admitted as full members of the empire in 10-20 years). Under such a scenario, Bohemia-Moravia too would not be admitted to the empire (who would you suggest as possible candidates for the throne?)

 

[Grey Wolf]

I don't think it will change the outcome (France, Bavaria and Austria vs. Prussia, Italy and Russia), but it will certainly be a disaster for Bavaria. The most likely outcome would be end of the Wittelsbach as king of Bavaria (who might be a good replacement? Maybe Karl of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, who ITTL did not become prince of Romania since Ioan Cuza was reinstated as prince of Romania by the powers in 1867), and the Palatinate going to Baden (any other territory which might be stripped from Bavaria? Maybe something for Wurttenberg).

Prussia, as in the Hohenzollerns, have revanchist claims to Bayreuth (how do you pronounce that?)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Mikestone8]

Prussia, as in the Hohenzollerns, have revanchist claims to Bayreuth (how do you pronounce that?)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Can't speak for the Germans, but in English usually "By-royt".

 

[Mulder]

IIRC, Napoleon III tried to woo Bavaria and Wurttenberg (not sure abt. Baden) to have them join into an anti-Prussia alliance. IOTL he was unsuccessful.

Even if he tried, the only answer he would get from Baden would be a firm no!

Since I'm trying to find reasons for Austria to intervene on the side of France, it might be possible that Bavaria ITTL reneges on the defensive/offensive agreement with Prussia of 1866 (also in consideration of the papal woes), while Baden and Wurttenberg side with the Kleindeutschland.

This might be an incentive for Austria to go to war.

I don't think it will change the outcome (France, Bavaria and Austria vs. Prussia, Italy and Russia), but it will certainly be a disaster for Bavaria. The most likely outcome would be end of the Wittelsbach as king of Bavaria (who might be a good replacement? Maybe Karl of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, who ITTL did not become prince of Romania since Ioan Cuza was reinstated as prince of Romania by the powers in 1867), and the Palatinate going to Baden (any other territory which might be stripped from Bavaria? Maybe something for Wurttenberg).

This might be plausible. Württemberg might want Swabia from Bavaria. Franconia (the northern part of Bavaria, marked light blue on the following map, except for then Thuringian Coburg) might become an independent member state of the German Empire or a Prussian province (and maybe gain a small bit of westernmost Bohemia, e.g. Asch [that small bit of Bohemia sticking in between Bavaria and Saxony] or even all of the Egerland):

However the other major impact would be a reinforcement of Bismarck's anti-catholic feelings. This might result in a German empire being proclaimed but rump Bavaria and Austria are not included in it (they might become a German satellite under the above mentioned Karl of H-S, and possibly be admitted as full members of the empire in 10-20 years). Under such a scenario, Bohemia-Moravia too would not be admitted to the empire (who would you suggest as possible candidates for the throne?)

I don't know, but wasn't the northern part of Bohemia-Moravia protestant (the areas bordering Saxony and Lower Silesia)? These areas might be annexed to Saxony and Prussia, respectively. Austria might become a non-member puppet of Germany, but Bavaria might get the same deal as Alsace-Lorraine got in OTL, i.e. becoming a Reichsland governed directly from Berlin. This of course largely depends on how the population of Bavaria and Austria behaves during the war. If the Northern German public sees them as poor oppressed fellow Germans governed by traitorous francophile, papist Habsburg and Wittelsbach scum, the NGC might go only for regime change and direct membership in the German Empire (Bavaria would probably still lose at least the Palatinate in such a scenario, possibly even Franconia). If OTOH the Northern German public thinks that the people of core Bavaria and Austria are traitors themselves, the Reichland/puppet treatment is more likely.

In any case this will probably butterfly away the creation of the Reichsland of Alsace-Lorraine, since the chief reason behind its creation was the fact that Prussia had to take the sentiments of the Southern states into account. If Bavaria is hostile, and Baden and Württemberg get compensated with the Palatinate and Swabia, Alsace-Lorraine might be annexed by Prussia as a new province, with maybe a small bit of northern Alsace (Wissembourg district) going to Baden as well.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Can't speak for the Germans, but in English usually "By-royt".

Ah, thank you! My mind thinks of it as bay-rooth which I assumed was wrong, but trying to pronounce it in German I kept coming up with Beirut which I thought also must be wrrong!

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[LordKalvan]

This might be plausible. Württemberg might want Swabia from Bavaria. Franconia (the northern part of Bavaria, marked light blue on the following map, except for then Thuringian Coburg) might become an independent member state of the German Empire or a Prussian province (and maybe gain a small bit of westernmost Bohemia, e.g. Asch [that small bit of Bohemia sticking in between Bavaria and Saxony] or even all of the Egerland):

Food for thought. I certainly like the idea of rewarding Wurttenberg with Swabia and Baden with the Rhenish Palatinate. Also a revival of ancient Franconia as an independent state in the Reich has its attraction.

I don't know, but wasn't the northern part of Bohemia-Moravia protestant (the areas bordering Saxony and Lower Silesia)? These areas might be annexed to Saxony and Prussia, respectively. Austria might become a non-member puppet of Germany, but Bavaria might get the same deal as Alsace-Lorraine got in OTL, i.e. becoming a Reichsland governed directly from Berlin. This of course largely depends on how the population of Bavaria and Austria behaves during the war. If the Northern German public sees them as poor oppressed fellow Germans governed by traitorous francophile, papist Habsburg and Wittelsbach scum, the NGC might go only for regime change and direct membership in the German Empire (Bavaria would probably still lose at least the Palatinate in such a scenario, possibly even Franconia). If OTOH the Northern German public thinks that the people of core Bavaria and Austria are traitors themselves, the Reichland/puppet treatment is more likely.

In any case this will probably butterfly away the creation of the Reichsland of Alsace-Lorraine, since the chief reason behind its creation was the fact that Prussia had to take the sentiments of the Southern states into account. If Bavaria is hostile, and Baden and Württemberg get compensated with the Palatinate and Swabia, Alsace-Lorraine might be annexed by Prussia as a new province, with maybe a small bit of northern Alsace (Wissembourg district) going to Baden as well.

You make good points about the northern part of Bohemia: Prussia and Saxony would get a slice each.
IMHO Bavaria and Austria will be perceived (or better portrayed: Otto would not loose this opportunity) as traitors to the German cause and papist puppets. They might be set up as Reichsland or associated states of the Reich (aka protectorates), and I'm in favor of the latter. The associated status is less demeaning than to become Reichsland: they'd be in custom union with the Reich, with the same currency and with a large degree of authonomy in internal affairs; limited armed forces with defense and foreign affairs managed by the Reich. This solution leave also a door open in the future to admit them as full member states (and does not create any immediate problem in the Reichstag).
Bohemia-Moravia would have a similar status of association.
Alsace-Lorraine should in any case be admitted as Reichsland: they were not independent before the war, giving them to Prussia would increase too much its territory and in any case Alsace-Lorraine belong to the founding myth of the second Reich.

 

[Mulder]

You make good points about the northern part of Bohemia: Prussia and Saxony would get a slice each.

The downside of this, at least for Germany, is however that it will strengthen the Czechs.

IMHO Bavaria and Austria will be perceived (or better portrayed: Otto would not loose this opportunity) as traitors to the German cause and papist puppets. They might be set up as Reichsland or associated states of the Reich (aka protectorates), and I'm in favor of the latter. The associated status is less demeaning than to become Reichsland: they'd be in custom union with the Reich, with the same currency and with a large degree of authonomy in internal affairs; limited armed forces with defense and foreign affairs managed by the Reich. This solution leave also a door open in the future to admit them as full member states (and does not create any immediate problem in the Reichstag).
Bohemia-Moravia would have a similar status of association.
Alsace-Lorraine should in any case be admitted as Reichsland: they were not independent before the war, giving them to Prussia would increase too much its territory and in any case Alsace-Lorraine belong to the founding myth of the second Reich.

If I were Bismarck I'd choose the Reichsland option for Bavaria, the puppet option for Austria and Bohemia-Moravia (maybe the latter completely stripped of Sudetenland, so it can stay a puppet indefinitely).

 

[Eurofed]

The scenario in general is ok for me, I was just trying to make it more plausible.

I guess that for me there are two sticking points:

• Bismarck must convert to the idea of Grossdeutschland: this is not easy as it may seem, given his background and his strong aversion to incorporate too many catholics in the empire (note that this is prior to the schism: the catholics for Bismarck are papist, full stop). Maybe a better Italian performance in 1866 might convince him that keeping A-H alive is a loosing proposition; and/or the agreement on the Ausgleich is more difficult and controversial (Austria is perceived as weaker); or there is more fervent pan-German nationalism (riots in Austria and Bohemia? arrests of pan-German supporters?): there must be some reason for him to change his mind. Note that he is also likely to be unhappy with the idea of a two-front war.
• the Austrians must have a stronger incentive to enter another war (the third in a decade): revanchism is ok, maybe fuelled by a more punitive peace treaty in 1866, but maybe not enough. However the same reasons that might convince Otto to go for a Grossdeutschland (pan-Germanism, worse losses in 1866, more difficult relations with Hungarians) might work to tip the scale. IMHO the Italian intervention in Latium and the papal cry-for-help would clinch it.

Re. the southern Germans (aka Bavaria): if the spark is the Roman question, the papal squawks might make them less willing to enter the war. It's not a big deal either way, and in any case an Austrian attempt to invade would change their mind. Actually the agreement might be that they don't send troops to France but mobilise to guard against an Austrian intervention.

Well, as much as it may interesting to discuss the variant of Bavaria and Austria staying separate. at least for a while (It is is still the most likely case that they are incorporated in 10-20 years as the bad blood of the war wanes and German nationalist self-consciousness increases), IMO the natural outcome and main point of the scenario is the demise of the Habsburg Empire and the creation of Greater Germany. In this regard, butterlifes are preferable that downplay, not reinforce, Bismarck's prejudices towards German Catholics. In this regard, possible ways are, as you mentioned, Bavaria taking the side of Prussia, but in a defensive stance, a surge of Pan-German sentiment, better Italian performance & worse Austrian losses in 1866, a more difficult Ausgleich, an Austrian attack on Bavaria, and I would add, France declaring war on Italy and Prussia first. If we assume the war starting in 1870 (which gives OvB more time to prepare the secret alliance with the Southern German states and with Russia) the latter might be done by an Italian move on Rome and the threat of an Hohenzollern (or Savoia) candidature on the throne of Spain getting wrapped up together as the French casus belli.

 

[LordKalvan]

Well, as much as it may interesting to discuss the variant of Bavaria and Austria staying separate. at least for a while (It is is still the most likely case that they are incorporated in 10-20 years as the bad blood of the war wanes and German nationalist self-consciousness increases), IMO the natural outcome and main point of the scenario is the demise of the Habsburg Empire and the creation of Greater Germany. In this regard, butterlifes are preferable that downplay, not reinforce, Bismarck's prejudices towards German Catholics. In this regard, possible ways are, as you mentioned, Bavaria taking the side of Prussia, but in a defensive stance, a surge of Pan-German sentiment, better Italian performance & worse Austrian losses in 1866, a more difficult Ausgleich, an Austrian attack on Bavaria, and I would add, France declaring war on Italy and Prussia first. If we assume the war starting in 1870 (which gives OvB more time to prepare the secret alliance with the Southern German states and with Russia) the latter might be done by an Italian move on Rome and the threat of an Hohenzollern (or Savoia) candidature on the throne of Spain getting wrapped up together as the French casus belli.

Let me start from the end: a war starting in 1870 (as OTL) is better since gives Otto a reasonable time frame to string along Nappy and push him over the edge, until he declares war. Additionally Italy will need a little time to clean house (in particular in the army) and put in place some reforms. Looking at the matter in a cynical way there will be also time to put the blame on France and the pope, and to oil a bit the wheels of diplomacy. The Roman question, Luxembourg and the Spanish succession crisis added to the downturn in French economy should be good enough to keep the pot boiling up to the moment Nappy declares war.

Some additional reasons (other than revanchism) should be there for Austria to take the plunge (after all, OTL they did not): a more difficult Ausgleich, stronger pan-German agitations and the papal troubles are all moving in the right direction. Some bombings and/or assassination attempts should do wonder to heat up the public opinion. An additional option might be Bavaria having second thoughts on the defensive/aggressive treaty with Prussia and being more receptive of papal fears: it's not much, but Austria might feel that it strengthen their position.

Finally there is the issue of the number of catholics in the German empire. I do feel that this is a very sticky point with Otto, and one of the most significant reasons for his opposition to Grossdeutschland (other reasons being the dilution of Prussian influence in a larger empire and the potential dishomogeneity of Grossdeutschland). Bavaria's betrayal would on one side assuage his paranoia (I was right, wasn't I?) and on the other give him a way out by taking the option of quarantining Austria, Bavaria and Bohemia for the time being (Reichslands or satellites does not make a big difference).
Looks like a win-win solution to me

 

[Eurofed]

Let me start from the end: a war starting in 1870 (as OTL) is better since gives Otto a reasonable time frame to string along Nappy and push him over the edge, until he declares war. Additionally Italy will need a little time to clean house (in particular in the army) and put in place some reforms. Looking at the matter in a cynical way there will be also time to put the blame on France and the pope, and to oil a bit the wheels of diplomacy. The Roman question, Luxembourg and the Spanish succession crisis added to the downturn in French economy should be good enough to keep the pot boiling up to the moment Nappy declares war.

Some additional reasons (other than revanchism) should be there for Austria to take the plunge (after all, OTL they did not): a more difficult Ausgleich, stronger pan-German agitations and the papal troubles are all moving in the right direction. Some bombings and/or assassination attempts should do wonder to heat up the public opinion. An additional option might be Bavaria having second thoughts on the defensive/aggressive treaty with Prussia and being more receptive of papal fears: it's not much, but Austria might feel that it strengthen their position.

Finally there is the issue of the number of catholics in the German empire. I do feel that this is a very sticky point with Otto, and one of the most significant reasons for his opposition to Grossdeutschland (other reasons being the dilution of Prussian influence in a larger empire and the potential dishomogeneity of Grossdeutschland). Bavaria's betrayal would on one side assuage his paranoia (I was right, wasn't I?) and on the other give him a way out by taking the option of quarantining Austria, Bavaria and Bohemia for the time being (Reichslands or satellites does not make a big difference).
Looks like a win-win solution to me

I am in agreement almost on everything, except on the latter point onsofar as it is better IMO for the future evolution of Germany if OvB finds his anti-Catholic prejudices disconfirmed, not confirmed, and lacking that, Bavaria, Austria, and Bohemia-Moravia are joined with the Reich from the beginning, optimally as states with full rights, or as Reichslands if need be.

 

[LordKalvan]

I am in agreement almost on everything, except on the latter point onsofar as it is better IMO for the future evolution of Germany if OvB finds his anti-Catholic prejudices disconfirmed, not confirmed, and lacking that, Bavaria, Austria, and Bohemia-Moravia are joined with the Reich from the beginning, optimally as states with full rights, or as Reichslands if need be.

My point is that OvB never evolved from his basic prejudices (or shoul I say reasonable worries) against the catholic, notwithstanding the fact that Bavaria toed the line as promised and that Austria refrained from going in for another round. Whatever Bavaria does, Austria is going to intervene in the war, isn't it? and the number of catholics to be included in the empire is certainly much larger ITTL.

IMHO the way Bavaria, Austria and Bohemia are subsumed into the empire will not have a great impact on the future: even if all three states become Reichslands, it is likely to be a temporary solution, which is not going to last more than a generation.
However the scenario I drafted addresses in a reasonable manner what I consider the two biggest weaknesses (in terms of credibility) of TTL: why Austria should get (again!) into a losing war and why OvB should accept a concept (Grossdeutschland) which he fought against IOTL.

 

[Super Parker Brothers]

Otto von Bismark probably wanted to deal with the smaller German states in the North first. Afterwards he had no problem with having the rest of the German areas join in an Empire. Apparentlly the King of Prussia wanted to simply stay King, but Bismark asked the King of Bavaria to propose the Prussian one as Kaiser. But Im getting away from the main point. At this point the Prussians were solidly above the other Germans but would not annex Austria even if they asked (they didnt) as it would mean either letting lose the Balkans or annexing it all and destabilizing the lands. Considering how the second Kaiser began acquiring moneypit colonies, booted Bismark, and had the eastern Prussians reliant on cheap Polish labor, I think there would be less of an issue in taking it. Besides losing their ally.