The Austrians declined to join the French when it became clear the south German states were going to join Prussia in the coming conflict. However what if the powers that be in Austria decided it was now or never joined France in the war? Would it have been enough to defeat the Prussians, or would the war end with Gross-Deutschland and an independent Hungary?
Austria intervens in the Franco-Prussian War
- Thread starter Timmy811
- Start date
Super Parker Brothers
Banned
Maybe it is shown that Bismark changed the Kaiser's letter to the French to provoke a war. Anyways, the Austrians would want Silesia back and could try courting the Danes, Dutch, and British to secure or regain their lands. Still, Prussia was a military state and was usually relied upon to keep the peace in the Germanies by crushing democrats.
If Austria intervene in favor of France, maybe Italy can be tempted to for Prussia to regain more irredente land
That is most likely. Italy could gain Savoy and Nice from France and Southern Tyrol, Istria and Goridzia from AH.
Furthermore, Austria will loose any support in what later became Germany, backstabbing Prussia against the "hereditary enemy". Britain will stay neutral but wouldn't accept Prussia to be dismembered in case they would losse - which is not sure at all - meaning that Prussia remains a major power, and industrialization guarantees that it will become more and more powerful in comparison to France and Austria. For whatever remains of the German states, the Prussians will be national heroes - probably German unification is just delayed and will come sooner or later with even more nationalistic fever.
Anderman
Donor
Nope the Ems Dispatch was a internal message not a letter to the french government. Bismarck shorted only the press release.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ems_Dispatch
Darn crazy Italians, that seems the most probably outcome despite the fact that they were allied to both Austria and France at the time.
There was a secret agreement between Russia and Prussia: in case of Austria entering the warm Russia would attack Galicia mobilising at least 100,000 men.
An Austrian intervention would have resulted in an early demise of the Habsburg empire
An Austrian intervention would have resulted in an early demise of the Habsburg empire
A crosstime traveller! well done: tell us more about your TL
They were at least allied to France at the time, but I'm pretty sure they were allied to Austria too.
The fact (if true) that they were allied to both Austria and France at the time makes that outcome significantly more likely.
I thought Italy was allied to Prussia and grabbed Rome when the French troops were recalled?
Eurofed
Banned
This scenario has been rather extensively discussed and developed in this quasi-TL discussion thread of mine: the "European War of 1870" (I hope to turn it into a full-fledged TL eventually).
To sum it up, if Austria joins France, it is pretty sure that Italy and Russia would intervene on the side of Prussia/Germany. The former because of previous Italo-Prussian alliance bonds, irredentist claims of Italy on both powers, and Austro-French hostility to Italian annexation of Rome. The latter because of standing secret accords between the Russian government and Bismarck that committed Russia to attack Austria in Galicia if Austria joined France. Britain stays neutral since they had been cleverly persuaded by Bismarck's dplomacy that this war is all the fault of Napoleon III and French expansionism in the Rhineland and the Low Countries, which they didn't fancy one bit.
Austria is attacked by three sides and swiftly collapses (all the more so since the Hungarians, that never were enthused about a dynastic Habsburg revenge war on Prussia, would see the writing on the wall and rise up as soon as the military situation turns bad).
France has to fight a two-front war and is screwed even worse than OTL, losing Nice, Corsica, Savoy, and sphere of influence rights in Tunisia to Italy on top of Alsace and Lorraine to Germany (which is also likely to buy Luxemburg from the Netherlands and annex it with part of the French reparations). It is also quite possible that Germany and Italy seize and partition French shares of the Suez Canal and French colonial holdings in Indochina.
Bismarck is forced to accept Grossdeutchsland as inevitable. The Habsburg Empire is partitioned, Austria gets Galicia and Bukovina, Germany gets Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, South Tyrol, and Slovenia, Italy gets Trentino, the Austrian Littoral, and Dalmatia, Hungary becomes independent keeping Slovakia and Transylvania, as well as Croatia which gets expanded federal autonomy. Toss a dice to decide whether Fiume is awarded to Italy, Germany, or Hungary.
Germany, Italy, and Hungary establish an exceedingly stable Triple Alliance, and quite possibly, a customs and currency union as well. France suffers a worse Commune insurrection, and after the war turns even more politically instable and revanchist against the German-Italian bloc than OTL. Some kind of autoritarian-revanchist regime change is quite likely, such as a reactionary Bourbon restoration, a Boulangist populist-militarist republican dictatorship, or quite possibly a mix of the above.
The anti-Ottoman insurrections in the Balkans and the Russo-Turkish wars happen on schedule or slightly earlier, the outcome is much like OTL because Germany and Italy mediate in the *Congress of Berlin between Britain and Russia to prevent excessive Russian aggrandizement in the Balkans, although the outcome is going to be a bit less favorable to the Ottomans than OTL since Austria is no more. I.e. Bulgaria is made autonomous and united in its modern borders, Crete is made a protectorate of the great powers, Greece gets Thessaly and southern Epirus, Italy gets a protectorate over Tunisia and Libya (and Germany one over Morocco if it cares to).
The main geopolitical issue of Europe becomes whether the German-Italian-Hungarian Triple Alliance shall ally with Russia or with Britain in the long term, although as long as Bismarck is alive (due to the immense prestige reaped with being the author of the complete national unification of Germany, it is likely that he remains in change pretty much as long as he lives), he strives to maintain a balancing act of the CPs between Russia and Britain, and to keep both reasonably content, with a fair degree of success. After him, the CP shall be forced to pick a side, and the scorned power shall ally with France.
Those alliance blocks (Germany-Italy-Hungary and either Britain & the Ottomans or Russia; France and either Russia or Britain & the Ottomans) are likely to endure all the way into WWI, if it ever happens (and if it does, the CP are all but sure to win it, short of the USA siding early with the Entente).
To sum it up, if Austria joins France, it is pretty sure that Italy and Russia would intervene on the side of Prussia/Germany. The former because of previous Italo-Prussian alliance bonds, irredentist claims of Italy on both powers, and Austro-French hostility to Italian annexation of Rome. The latter because of standing secret accords between the Russian government and Bismarck that committed Russia to attack Austria in Galicia if Austria joined France. Britain stays neutral since they had been cleverly persuaded by Bismarck's dplomacy that this war is all the fault of Napoleon III and French expansionism in the Rhineland and the Low Countries, which they didn't fancy one bit.
Austria is attacked by three sides and swiftly collapses (all the more so since the Hungarians, that never were enthused about a dynastic Habsburg revenge war on Prussia, would see the writing on the wall and rise up as soon as the military situation turns bad).
France has to fight a two-front war and is screwed even worse than OTL, losing Nice, Corsica, Savoy, and sphere of influence rights in Tunisia to Italy on top of Alsace and Lorraine to Germany (which is also likely to buy Luxemburg from the Netherlands and annex it with part of the French reparations). It is also quite possible that Germany and Italy seize and partition French shares of the Suez Canal and French colonial holdings in Indochina.
Bismarck is forced to accept Grossdeutchsland as inevitable. The Habsburg Empire is partitioned, Austria gets Galicia and Bukovina, Germany gets Austria, Bohemia-Moravia, South Tyrol, and Slovenia, Italy gets Trentino, the Austrian Littoral, and Dalmatia, Hungary becomes independent keeping Slovakia and Transylvania, as well as Croatia which gets expanded federal autonomy. Toss a dice to decide whether Fiume is awarded to Italy, Germany, or Hungary.
Germany, Italy, and Hungary establish an exceedingly stable Triple Alliance, and quite possibly, a customs and currency union as well. France suffers a worse Commune insurrection, and after the war turns even more politically instable and revanchist against the German-Italian bloc than OTL. Some kind of autoritarian-revanchist regime change is quite likely, such as a reactionary Bourbon restoration, a Boulangist populist-militarist republican dictatorship, or quite possibly a mix of the above.
The anti-Ottoman insurrections in the Balkans and the Russo-Turkish wars happen on schedule or slightly earlier, the outcome is much like OTL because Germany and Italy mediate in the *Congress of Berlin between Britain and Russia to prevent excessive Russian aggrandizement in the Balkans, although the outcome is going to be a bit less favorable to the Ottomans than OTL since Austria is no more. I.e. Bulgaria is made autonomous and united in its modern borders, Crete is made a protectorate of the great powers, Greece gets Thessaly and southern Epirus, Italy gets a protectorate over Tunisia and Libya (and Germany one over Morocco if it cares to).
The main geopolitical issue of Europe becomes whether the German-Italian-Hungarian Triple Alliance shall ally with Russia or with Britain in the long term, although as long as Bismarck is alive (due to the immense prestige reaped with being the author of the complete national unification of Germany, it is likely that he remains in change pretty much as long as he lives), he strives to maintain a balancing act of the CPs between Russia and Britain, and to keep both reasonably content, with a fair degree of success. After him, the CP shall be forced to pick a side, and the scorned power shall ally with France.
Those alliance blocks (Germany-Italy-Hungary and either Britain & the Ottomans or Russia; France and either Russia or Britain & the Ottomans) are likely to endure all the way into WWI, if it ever happens (and if it does, the CP are all but sure to win it, short of the USA siding early with the Entente).
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Eurofed
Banned
Please note, Italy was not formally allied to any power in 1870, neither Prussia (the 1866 alliance had not been renewed after the war, although that avenue was certainly kept open as an option), nor France (the 1859 alliance had turned sour, broken down, and shifted to hostility when France had thrown its weight to stalemate Italian annexation of Papal Latium), and certainly not Austria (still seen as the enemy, the Triple Alliance was still a decade in the future).
An opportunity to complete the unification of Italy by destroying the Habsburg Empire and cutting France down to size in an alliance with Prussia/Germany and Russia would be welcome in Florence as a sign that Providence smiles on the efforts of Italian patriots.
An opportunity to complete the unification of Italy by destroying the Habsburg Empire and cutting France down to size in an alliance with Prussia/Germany and Russia would be welcome in Florence as a sign that Providence smiles on the efforts of Italian patriots.
They were at least allied to France at the time, but I'm pretty sure they were allied to Austria too.
What gives you this idea?
Italy did not have any binding alliance before they entered the Triple Alliance with Germany and Austria in 1883.
France was allied in the war of 1859; since the developments in Italy did not go as Nappy was planning, and the issue of Rome was pretty hot, the relations between France and Italy were not too warm.
France proposed an anti-Prussian alliance to Austria in 1869, but it did not work out: Austria wanted a reassurance from Italy, and Italy was not interested in giving it to the traditional enemy; plus the Hungarians were very much against the French alliance.
Unfortunately the king felt (wrongly) that he owed something to Nappy for the intervention in 1859: a very good opportunity was lost
I remember reading they had promised something like 100 000 men to France. (They never showed up of course.)
yeah, in the ATL you're coming from: there was a low-probability POD with Nappy seeing early the writing on the wall and selling the pope down the river in 1868 or 1869 in exchange for an anti-Prussian alliance
Tell me: do you hold a personal grudge against Italy? Your posts sound a bit "pointed"
Eurofed
Banned
True, however if Austria sides with France, the king is sure to change his mind or be overruled by the government, since the nationalist push to side Italy with Prussia (and Russia) would be irresistible.
They were just some diplomatic talking, nothing of serious. It's that the piedmontese nobility had some tie and traditional leaning with France and at the times was still influent. But in reality nothing come from this talking and the many politicians and merchants were not very fond of France.