Austria-Hungary's Future if the Central Powers Win WWI

[CaliGuy]

Had the Central Powers won WWI (for instance, had Wilson cut off U.S. loans to the Entente and thus caused the Entente--or at least Britain--or go bankrupt), what would have been Austria-Hungary's future?

Would it have been able to successfully survive the rise of nationalism within its borders as a result of WWI?

 

[NixonTheUsedCarSalesman]

Well the go-to answer is that it would have implemented Trialism, which is to say become Austria-Hungary-Croatia.

Map:

Flag:

This is the most realistic option, compared to the far more radical United States of Greater Austria proposal. It would have given the Austrian South Slavic lands their own kingdom on par with Hungary. Serbia could possibly be annexed and added to this kingdom as well.

 

[Nivek]

Depends who ended rulling A-H when all the dust settled, the issue is...when USGA was just one of the proposal give to Franz Fernindand(who he considered maybe useful but unworkable as he did not trust the magyar enough) the main idea was tryinng to curtain Magyar Magnates either via ausgleich or decret, the whole war would destroy the power of the romanian and strenght the magyar, and rudoplh was a defender of status quo, at long term i imagine Zita(who supported FF plans) might try via regency convice Otto to federalize or break magyar power once for all.

So i imagine a federal kingdom(imagine like germant worked but more along ethnic lines) but with a single, only Austrian(german) speaking army staffed with officer all the states, so nobody is loyal but to the Hasburg Crown.

Might work? depends, i think as their enemies are subdue and germany will support anything that end the post Franz Joseph mess.

 

[Insider]

Flag:

This is the most realistic option, compared to the far more radical United States of Greater Austria proposal. It would have given the Austrian South Slavic lands their own kingdom on par with Hungary. Serbia could possibly be annexed and added to this kingdom as well.

Flag is beautiful.
Indeed, and this was the option Karl Habsburg seemed to prefer. I doubt that Serbia would be annexed, rather vassalised under a harsh treaty.

For the popular support I can say only one thing. They had won. The wider public and veterans would most likely back Kaiser unless he some huge blunder to alienate people.

 

[CaliGuy]

Depends who ended rulling A-H when all the dust settled, the issue is...when USGA was just one of the proposal give to Franz Fernindand(who he considered maybe useful but unworkable as he did not trust the magyar enough) the main idea was tryinng to curtain Magyar Magnates either via ausgleich or decret, the whole war would destroy the power of the romanian and strenght the magyar, and rudoplh was a defender of status quo, at long term i imagine Zita(who supported FF plans) might try via regency convice Otto to federalize or break magyar power once for all.

So i imagine a federal kingdom(imagine like germant worked but more along ethnic lines) but with a single, only Austrian(german) speaking army staffed with officer all the states, so nobody is loyal but to the Hasburg Crown.

Might work? depends, i think as their enemies are subdue and germany will support anything that end the post Franz Joseph mess.

Franz Ferdinand was already dead by 1918, though; indeed, I am talking about a post-WWI Austria-Hungary here.

 

[CaliGuy]

Well the go-to answer is that it would have implemented Trialism, which is to say become Austria-Hungary-Croatia.

Map:

Flag:

This is the most realistic option, compared to the far more radical United States of Greater Austria proposal. It would have given the Austrian South Slavic lands their own kingdom on par with Hungary. Serbia could possibly be annexed and added to this kingdom as well.

Kaiser Karl supported Trialism?

 

[Nivek]

Franz Ferdinand was already dead by 1918, though; indeed, I am talking about a post-WWI Austria-Hungary here.

Yeah but he was the one who have a semi functional plans to end the ausgleich, either via federization or ending the hungary side and rule via decret, the issue was his death ended without ideas what to do, and with a win, the romanians got cowered and that strengthed the magyars but after wars i doubt they will pull an stunt...till karl live

Kaiser Karl supported Trialism?

He wanted to keep status quo(too much headaches) or make a one nation again even if 'cultural regions' for all non german nor hungarian speakers, the ausgleich only worked thanks to franz joseph so anything migth be Central, federal or bust, i think can work, magyar won more power thanks to the border correction and might keep their sea acess via croatia that risk a fight they can not win...

 

[JackLumber]

Pending the Polish situation AH my not have its partition.

 

[Clandango]

I have some doubts as to the Austrians being willing to give up so much of Carinthia, let alone most of Carniola. Also the situation of ports. If Trialism was pushed through would they make sure the ports were kept under Imperial control for customs, or would the Austrians need to arrange something like the Hungarians did at Fiume?

EDIT: I see I mixed up Carinthia, Styria, and Carniola. Whatever the portion, the Austrians Habsburgs had much of it for centuries. Then again, maybe reverse the abolition of the Kingdom of Illryia?

 

[Nivek]

Pending the Polish situation AH my not have its partition.

They were willing to let galizia go in exchange to give it to Arcduke Karl and fall into personal Union with AH but germany was not interested...but depends if they can negotiated later on.

 

[JackLumber]

They were willing to let galizia go in exchange to give it to Arcduke Karl and fall into personal Union with AH but germany was not interested...but depends if they can negotiated later on.

We could end up with a comprise of a Habsburg on the Polish throne but this is ultimately up to the Germans.

 

[fluttersky]

Well the go-to answer is that it would have implemented Trialism, which is to say become Austria-Hungary-Croatia.

Map:

Flag:

This is the most realistic option, compared to the far more radical United States of Greater Austria proposal. It would have given the Austrian South Slavic lands their own kingdom on par with Hungary. Serbia could possibly be annexed and added to this kingdom as well.

Makes sense, but what about the other predominantly-Slavic lands in Austria-Hungary?

I'm wondering if something like this might happen. The yellow being a Kingdom of Ruthenia / Kingdom of Galicia / Kingdom of Ukraine. (Possibly extending further east if Austria-Hungary gained territory from Russia as a result of the war)

 

[JackLumber]

Makes sense, but what about the other predominantly-Slavic lands in Austria-Hungary?

I'm wondering if something like this might happen. The yellow being a Kingdom of Ruthenia / Kingdom of Galicia / Kingdom of Ukraine. (Possibly extending further east if Austria-Hungary gained territory from Russia as a result of the war)

View attachment 306204

I don't see it happening.
The poles and ruthenians were pretty loyal to the Habsburgs (or at least content to be under the Habsburgs), so i think they either keep them for themselves to help maintain their dominance over the other two Kingdoms or they may end up adding their partition to the new polish Kingdom depending on what happens there.

 

[MichiganNationalist1837]

How likely would it be for a communist or other leftist to occur in Austria-Hungary?

 

[machine3589]

I have some doubts as to the Austrians being willing to give up so much of Carinthia, let alone most of Carniola. Also the situation of ports. If Trialism was pushed through would they make sure the ports were kept under Imperial control for customs, or would the Austrians need to arrange something like the Hungarians did at Fiume?

EDIT: I see I mixed up Carinthia, Styria, and Carniola. Whatever the portion, the Austrians Habsburgs had much of it for centuries. Then again, maybe reverse the abolition of the Kingdom of Illryia?

There were actually several Trialist proposals floating around:

Personally I`d consider number 3 to be the most realistic, with the caveat that the Austrian Crown would probably keep nearly all of Istria.

 

[Lalli]

How likely would it be for a communist or other leftist to occur in Austria-Hungary?

Germany wouldn't allow that, speciality if Russia goes communist or some other form of left-wing regime.

 

[Keb]

How likely would it be for a communist or other leftist to occur in Austria-Hungary?

Communists had, by WWI, long abandoned the idea of Austria-Hungary as a united nation - they wanted to break it up in favour of national states. The left, in general, was not very powerful, though post-war, there would be a significant up-surge in their support - particularly in Hungary, which did ultimately experience a revolution IOTL. The revolution is unlikely with an intact army, but there would be a lot of pressure on the Hungarian nobility to expand the vote.