Austria-Hungary Switches Sides After Outbreak of WWI

As it says on the can, what if Austria-Hungary had a sudden change of heart after the outbreak of WWI?

Here's the scenario:

Austria-Hungary realised they were being too heavy handed after issuing the ultimatum to Serbia, especially as Serbia accepted most of the terms and extended the olive branch and were reasonable in their response to Austria.

Austria realises that it could reconcile with Serbia and war with Russia isn't worth it.

They also come to the realisation that Germany is a domineering and dangerous ally, as the Kaiser's arrogant and clumsy diplomacy from the 1890s onwards alienated every Great Power in the world against Austria.

By allying with Germany, all of the other major powers became enemies of Austria-Hungary by default. At the time when the Dual Alliance was signed, only Russia was a potential enemy - now France, Britain, Japan and the US were either enemies or hostile, in addition to Russia. Austria-Hungary could engage with the rest of the world, as none of these powers were true enemies with major clashes of interests with Austria, instead of having to side with a diplomatically isolated Germany.

The Allies don't see Austria-Hungary as a major threat, but they still want to destroy Germany. They offer peace with Austria in exchange for Vienna declaring war on Germany. Austria-Hungary are offered slices of German territory should Germany be defeated. For the Allies, this will weaken Germany post war and help maintain a balance of power in Europe.

For the Austrian government, they see the odds in favour of an Allied victory, and acquiring German territory will help balance the empire with a larger German population.

How would the war go with a Franco-Russian-Austrian offensive, and British blockade on Germany? Would Germany surrender quickly?

Or would there be trench warfare, except on German soil instead of France?

If the war dragged on for longer, would Germany be starved into submission by 1917?

Or would a fragile power like Austria-Hungary allow Germany to make even more gains in Central & Eastern Europe than in OTL?
 
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There is no way this could happen. Austria allied Germany because of fear of Russia, and Russia would not allow Austria to join the Entente-Russia wanted to dissolve the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and that was without the fact that Austria basically started the war.
 
Did Russia want to go as far as dissolving the Austro-Hungarian Empire? I thought it was only midway through WWI that they wanted this.

Austria and Russia were regional rivals, but could have reconciled. Germany was the primary threat to Russia, as demonstrated by the Franco-Russian alliance. Austria had little to no significant overlapping or clashing interests with Britain or France other than being allied with Germany. So they might have been able to dump Germany for the other three powers if they could bury their differences with Russia.
 
There is no way this could happen. Austria allied Germany because of fear of Russia, and Russia would not allow Austria to join the Entente-Russia wanted to dissolve the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and that was without the fact that Austria basically started the war.

Was intention of Russia dissolve whole the empire from beginning? With my knowledge any Entente power didn't on early stage of war didn't care survival of the empire. And Russia wanting dissolve multinational empire not make any sense. It would cause chain reaction which could harm Russia too.

But this OP scenario is very implausible. You would need totally different mindset of kaiser JF and other government. Most what can do is that A-H withdraw from war but not when JF is alive. Probably best case is that Germans don't find out Carl I's secret peace negotiations attempts before it is too late like in OTL.
 
There is no way this could happen. Austria allied Germany because of fear of Russia, and Russia would not allow Austria to join the Entente-Russia wanted to dissolve the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and that was without the fact that Austria basically started the war.
Mostly true, but Russia didn't want to dismember Austria-Hungary in 1914. They wanted Galicia, obviously, and probably Bukowina, and supported Serbia's claims (which would have been at least Bosnia in 1914). The dismemberment of A-H wasn't a goal until 1917 (or 1916) if I remember correctly.

Honestly, once the war has started, it's too late. None of the war parties wanted to back down once War were Declared.

Your best bet is for the Assassination be defused. Either for the Blank Cheque not to happen or be delayed enough for the Emperor to make his decision and be swayed by opponents of the war, which was happening until German support was guaranteed and Prime Minister Tisza backed down. Then, the 'ultimatum' to Serbia is watered down to what the Serbs had accepted in OTL. Afterwards, it's possible Austria-Hungary distances itself from Germany; being a minor partner in the alliance made a lot of Austro-Hungarians rather bitter, and some even still had not forgotten 1866...

Otherwise, like Lalli said, you can have Karl I continue negociating for peace, but that would require him to abandon Germany since there was no way the latter wanted to give up Alsace-Lorraine and Belgium as Karl was trying to propose. With A-H pulling out, who knows what Germany would do in retaliation? They certainly threatened to invade when they found out about the negociations, but did they really have the capabilities to do so? The German nationalists in A-H are definitely going to be angry.
 
Let's assume Austria-Hungary did invade Germany in 1914, along with France and Russia.

Would they have fared better or worse than the Russians? I'd be interested to know if the quality of their army and the logistics was better than the Russians at the time?
 
Let's assume Austria-Hungary did invade Germany in 1914, along with France and Russia.

Would they have fared better or worse than the Russians? I'd be interested to know if the quality of their army and the logistics was better than the Russians at the time?
Quick and very over-generalised pros-and-cons overview of the A-H armies.

Pros
  • Very good replacement/replenishment system when it comes to manpower.
  • Excellent siege artillery
  • Large-ish standing army
  • In case of a war, the infrastructure in Austria, Bohemia and Hungary is excellent and well-connected to Germany.
  • NCOs and junior Officers are well-trained and excellent in 1914.
  • Top-tier Alpine Mountain infantry and decent Mountain guns.
  • The Danube Flotilla will wreck some shit on the Upper Danube and will be able to support the advance into Southern Germany.
  • The Sudetes and the Alps make excellent defensive positions when the counter-attack happen, likely funneling the attacks in the Danube region.
  • With Russia and France, Germany is surrounded by almost all sides.
Cons
  • When the inevitably massive losses happen, they will never be able to regain the quality NCOs and Officers
  • Conrad von Hötzendorf
  • Mediocre General staff with only a couple of good leaders
  • Conrad von Hötzendorf
  • Comparatively limited industrial capacity will make equipment replacement slow (equipment attrition was a massive problem for all armies in the War).
  • Not enough modern artillery. It will take time to catch up.
  • It's a veeeery long front line.
  • Southern Germany is a lot more densely populated than East Prussia, Galicia and Western Poland, which could make any offensive there very difficult and bloody.
  • German nationalists will be very angry at the Monarchy attacking Germany, but that might not be much of a problem. iOTL, Slavic soldiers of the Empire didn't mind fighting other Slavs initially (this changed quickly for Czechs because of idiocy in the leadership, less quickly for the Croats)
  • Did I mention Conrad von Hötzendorf?
Hötzendorf might even be a bigger problem iTTL than in OTL. He was a German supremacist if I remember correctly, although he did get bitter towards them later in the war.

The language problem is also very much an exaggerated problem in the army. It does get worse when the initial bloodbaths kill off the trained officers and NCOs, but they were usually from the same region as the unit they led, so were likely to speak the same language.

Regardless, it will be a bloodbath. With Germany fighting on three fronts, however, I doubt it can fight on for very long. Especially if they have no allies to help them out. After all, Austria-Hungary survived until 1918 with multiple fronts, but German help was essential post-1915.
 
Thanks Magyarország, that is a very informative post.

Hindsight would say Austria-Hungary got a raw deal by allying with Germany.
Glad it helped!

Certainly was by 1914, but it was far from obvious when the two Empires allied each other. When you have the Russo-French Entente, A-H's position in European politics becomes incredibly poor and Germany is pretty much the only possible ally. In the 1870s, they figured an alliance with Bismarckian Germany was the better bet for peace and stability despite the bitterness, while an alliance with France would give the chance to avenge Sadowa, it's definitely not a recipe for A-H's much-needed peace...
 

BooNZ

Banned
Hötzendorf might even be a bigger problem iTTL than in OTL. He was a German supremacist if I remember correctly, although he did get bitter towards them later in the war.
My understanding was Hötzendorf and the German High Command hated each other and that was why there were very limited (if any), joint planning/ liaisons prior to the war.

Hindsight would say Austria-Hungary got a raw deal by allying with Germany.
Yes, without Germany Austria-Hungary would have finished its war in 1914.
 
My understanding was Hötzendorf and the German High Command hated each other and that was why there were very limited (if any), joint planning/ liaisons prior to the war.

Yes, without Germany Austria-Hungary would have finished its war in 1914.
Yeah, he hated the German High Command because they consistently ignored him and the KuK establishment. He ressented becoming subordinated to them. Still, that didn't change his Pangerman nationalistic views, as I assume he had the wild idea that Austria was meant to lead a Greater Germany.
 
The war started entirely because of how poorly the austrians handled the situation. Serbia would basically be forced into the German camp, Romania and italy would be very tempted to join the centrals because now the entente hold all of their territorial claims. The Bulgarians would be surrounded on all sides by providing central powers, I doubt the entente could bank on them entering especially with the second Balkan war so fresh in their minds.
In the short time it applies a bunch of pressure to Germany but should they hold up and score some tactical victories all of a sudden the Centrals could be filled with the second and third tier powers of europe and given AH's disunity they could crumble in just a few months.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Let's assume Austria-Hungary did invade Germany in 1914, along with France and Russia.

Would they have fared better or worse than the Russians? I'd be interested to know if the quality of their army and the logistics was better than the Russians at the time?

This is ASB territory...

If the Schlieffen Plan has already kicked off, the Germans are screwed. The Germans will have 3 armies balls deep in Belgium and another two armies would need to hold the German-French border to avoid those being cut off. That leaves 3 German armies to fend off at least nine Russian and four A-H armies - that's not going to end well.

If the Schlieffen plan has not kicked off, Britain and Belgium are likely still neutral, but things still look bleak for the Germans. In my opinion, in that scenario the Germans would need to abandon East Prussia, perhaps with a couple of armies slowing the advance of the Russian steam roller. A couple of German armies would be left to fend off the French, abandoning the upper Rhine if required. That leaves four German armies to inflict a battle of annihilation against the A-H forces. If everything is executed perfectly, A-H is knocked from the war and the Germans can choose between Russian armies having advanced beyond their lines of supply and any French armies on the wrong side of the Rhine.
 
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