Austria-Hungary survives WW1 and interwar years.

I didn't think of Mussolini being butterflies away by a more successful Italy in ww1 but the scenario wouldn't be as interesting if it was all of Europe vs Germany on it's own.

At what point do you think Austria Hungary would enter the war? Without Czech and Austrian industry or Slovakia to launch the invasion from and with the long Austria Hungarian border for germany to garrison, Poland might last at least into the new year. Would the Soviets be more cautious about entering Poland in this scenario? Stalin may prefer to focus on the baltics and Finland for a while, especially as the allies might support Poland more practically if they can hold the ports at Danzig.
 
I didn't think of Mussolini being butterflies away by a more successful Italy in ww1 but the scenario wouldn't be as interesting if it was all of Europe vs Germany on it's own.

At what point do you think Austria Hungary would enter the war? Without Czech and Austrian industry or Slovakia to launch the invasion from and with the long Austria Hungarian border for germany to garrison, Poland might last at least into the new year. Would the Soviets be more cautious about entering Poland in this scenario? Stalin may prefer to focus on the baltics and Finland for a while, especially as the allies might support Poland more practically if they can hold the ports at Danzig.
I would have to imagine that Austria is sending massive quantities of supplies to Poland, rapidly building up their military, and will enter the war once Germany bogs down. Maybe come Spring they enter the war on the condition that Poland is still actively fighting and France launches a serious offensive.
 
I think your issue is that Austria, under our guy Charles, tried to arrange a separate peace. Italy vetoed it
 
Good thinking. Do you think Poland can last into the spring? They'd have to contain the germans to west of the Vistula and hold galicia for that to be viable.

Also, what would Germany's plans for the spring be? Attempting the ardennes offensive with fewer forces than the had IRL or take out Austria Hungary? I imagine they could only focus on one, especially if Poland holds out.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Hitler would have zero justifiable claims to annex the Sudetenland in this scenario. He can't claim that the Sudetenland Germans are being oppressed by Czechs. Without the Anschluss he can't make the case to the international community that the Third Reich is the representative of all Germans either. So the UK and France are much more likely to show some backbone in this scenario. Considering his hatred of the Habsburgs, Hitler would probably demand all of German-speaking A-H anyways, which is something even less likely to be accepted. The Habsburgs won't go down without a fight if that happens. Also, Serbia isn't going to attack Austria on its own. They would coordinate their attack with the Italians and Romanians.

One interesting possibility though is that the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact could include Austria-Hungary. Soviets would annex Carpatho-Ruthenia to the Ukrainian SSR and install a puppet regime in Hungary and Slovakia. Germany would get Cisleithania and the Burgenland. Italians and others might join in for their own slice of the pie.
 
I didn't think of Mussolini being butterflies away by a more successful Italy in ww1 but the scenario wouldn't be as interesting if it was all of Europe vs Germany on it's own.
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The mutilated victory myth will have less appeal if there is not Wilson to pubblicy humiliate the italian negotiation team and is was just an end due to A-H demanding peace and we had probably butterflied away D'Annunzio Fiume takeover and the great expansion of the Arditi (a lot of early fascist stormtroopers come from them), no Caporetto (i doubt that's compatible with this scenario) mean also a lot less destruction in Veneto and a lot less money and blood spent in the war mean less pressure on the society. This doesn't mean that Benny or D'Annunzio will not do what they have done in OTL, but the goverment is much less unlikely to go with them and not answer in a very harsh manner as they have less and less reason to try to use them against the socialist.
As with Hitler, Mussolini rise of power was a series of very butteflyed events; frankly i will keep them at the possible minimum and don't make him take power, maybe a Strasserite regime or even a more 'mainstream' dictatorship is better, maybe someone that can create a stable alliance with Poland (they want their piece of the pie) against A-H...basically Germany, Poland, URSS (co-belligerant), Romania and Serbia vs A-H, France and UK with countries like Netherlands, Finland and Belgium being engulfed by the war

There is the possibility that in the middle 30's with eventually the ITTL equivalent of the Great Depression (still with an early end of the war and an A-H that will be more capable to pay reparations things can be different) a more fascist-like regime will come in power, but at this stage Mussolini will be already a political has been

I not say that Italy will join, just that's probably is not fascist and will have a 'we mind our business and we sell to everyone' attitude, Dalmatia was not so high in the irredente wishlist (except Zara and maybe Sebenico) and it was more the treatment received at Versailles that caused the damage.
 
I did think of having Hitler demand Austria or at least a referendum at Munich, but thought that he would be less likely to get a compromise if he demanded all German speaking lands without at first having Austria. He would argue the old habsburg dynasty is unjustly and anachrinistically ruling over lands that are rightfully German, and I think pan germans would still have some, albeit less support in AH.

AH would probably not beat Germany in 1938 as Germany were a few years ahead of them on rearming and I dont think would have allied backing for a war, even with less 'legitimate' German claims.

As for Serbia attacking Austria Hungary, keep in mind in this scenario the country is still thought of as disarmed by most of the world. Also, Serbia see AH practically falling apart and giving up land without a fight and believe they can take advantage of that to proclaim a Yugoslav state. I believe they had recruited a large percentage of their adult population in WW1 so under a more militaristic government would expect no challenge from a disarmed and ally less austro Hungary that could fall apart any day. Of course in this scenario they find out they're wrong and this is enough to stop Hitler going for anscluss.

Do you think Hitler would demand unification with Austria at Munich instead of the sudetenlands? I only went for the sudetenlands because going for Austria would be less realistic​
 
Having Austria-Hungary survives means that Poland is Piedmontized from Galicia-Teschen with a Polish Habsburg in place.
 
I've updated the scenario based on some feedback, and gone into some detail about some events that may take place in the first few months of the war. I'm not a huge military expert, so I'm not sure who the commanders or personnel would be, so I've tried to focus on the geography of the war. I think that this war would be much less mobile than WW2 was in our timeline with more stalemates and battles of attrition, especially in the alps.

1st September 1939 – Germany attacks Poland. WW2 begins. Austria Hungary remains neutral for now, with some parts of the empire reluctant to go to war with Germany and Prague especially being strategically vulnerable. However, the armed forces are mobilised, and the general population see war with Germany as inevitable.

12th September 1939 – Poland is holding on, constraining German forces to west of the Vistula. This is due to a portion of the German army having to garrison the border with Austria Hungary in case of attack and Germany having had no access to Czech or Austrian industry. Germany is also unable to invade through Slovakia for obvious reasons. Although Molotov Ribbentrop stands, the USSR for now focuses on the Baltics and making demands of Finland.

Talks begin between Britain, France and Austria Hungary, who will enter the war, but only on the condition that France launches an offensive into Germany and Poland continues to actively fight. In the meantime, Austria is keeping Poland supplied, whilst rapidly building up and modernising their own military. The Skoda works are being swiftly relocated to Transylvania.

10th October 1939 – Having secured support of each autonomous region of the empire, Austria Hungary declares war on Germany and begin an offensive to retake the sudetenlands.

Kaiser Otto 1st addresses the world in a passionate speech, which he repeats in German, Hungarian, Croatian, English and French, recounting personal stories from refugees fleeing persecution in Germany and declaring that German demands will not end with Poland or Austria. He states that neutrality will not be an option for any European nation, and that it is the duty of every European rise up against the Third Reich.

11th October 1939 – The Wehrmacht organises forces attacking Poland into Army Group North, and forces along the Austro-Hungarian border as Army Group South

12th October 1939 – Heavy German bombing raids start on Prague and Vienna. Austria Hungary retaliates with bombings of Berlin, Dresden and Leipzig using license built Amiot bombers. Over the coming weeks, Austrian Hungarian bomber squadrons would often encounter British bomber squadrons dropping propaganda leaflets on the same cities the Austrians had just bombed.

13th October 1939 – The south sudetenlands between Austria and Bohemia is reclaimed, facing only token German opposition in this strategically undefendable area. Austria Hungary also make gains in Silesia, thwarting an ongoing offensive into southern Poland. The land corridor between Danzig and the rest of Poland is lost in a pincer movement from north and south. Danzig is now surrounded.

21st October 1939 – The offensive into the sudetenlands runs out of steam, succeeding in retaking most of the province. A German offensive into the Tyrol is halted north of Innsbruck and constantly harassed by well-trained Kaiserschutzen fighting on home turf.

28th October 1939 – Danzig falls.

11th November 1939 – Army Group South begins an offensive into Austria northeast of Salzburg and the northern sudetenlands. Army Group North attacks from east Prussia simultaneously. By the 20th, the offensives are halted with only limited territorial gains. In contrast, German forces are forced to withdraw to more defendable land from the Tyrol following an attrition campaign from the mountains.

The Eastern Front remains static until the new year. The direction of the war is uncertain, with plans for offensives into Munich and Leipzig being explored. Conversely, an offensive in Bohemia could endanger much of the army and necessitate a withdrawal to behind the Danube to defend Vienna. Austria Hungary and Poland complain to Britain and France that a large-scale offensive has not begun in the west, and that now was the time for an assault on the Rhinelands France insists that the Saarland offensive has been very successful. The eerie quietness on both fronts over the winter allows for both Poland and Austria Hungary to resupply with more modern equipment and aircraft.

Although the priority of the British Expeditionary Force is to be ready to protect Belgium in case of invasion, several divisions and squadrons of RAF aircraft are redirected to Bohemia and Austria. This is in addition to lend leased and license-built Hawker Hurricanes entering Austrian Hungarian service, replacing obsolete Avia biplanes.

30th November 1939 – The Winter War between Finland and the USSR begins.

11th January 1940 – A Polish offensive into East Prussia is repelled and a small German Offensive into the Sudetenlands has limited success.

18th January 1940 – A full scale invasion of Austria Hungary begins, and Italy enters the war on the German side, with Germany invoking a pact of friendship signed between the two countries a year before. Italy believes the defences along the French and Austro-Hungarian borders to be weak, and conducts an invasion of both countries. An attack on the suburbs of Warsaw also begins on the Polish front, which over the next month is heavily contested becomes a frontline city

19th January 1940 – The Italians have some early successes, penetrating as far north as Patsch and Finkenberg in Austria and as far west as Moutiers in France. Italy aims to open a supply corridor through the Tyrol with Germany to facilitate the invasion.

22nd January 1940 – However, by the 22nd January, stiff opposition from both France and Austria Hungary reverses the offensive, and Austria Hungary even begins a counterattack, moving into the Austrian South Tyrol and the Istrian peninsula. German forces are only successful in the lower lands in North Austria, and a siege on Linz starts.

7th February 1940 – Austrian Hungarian forces start a renewed siege on Trieste which will last several days, with a narrow land corridor maintained by Italian forces. The invasion into north Austria is halted as the Kaiserschutzen are redeployed to the Italian front.

8th February 1940 – Bogged down in Austria, Army Group South presses the offensive into Bohemia with the aim of encircling Prague. Over the next few days, Austrian Hungarian forces withdraw from Carlsbad and the north Sudetenland in order to defend Prague and counter the pincer movement from Liberec in the north and Plzen to the west.

11th February 1940 – Polish and Austrian Hungary forces win the battle of Gleiwitz, capturing the city and providing a much-needed morale boost for the men of both countries as this is the first German city to fall so far in the war. German forces however take Wels in Austria

12th February 1940 – The siege of Trieste ends and Austria Hungary forces enter Trieste and Bolzano in the South Tyrol.

16th February 1940 – Following a month-long battle, Warsaw falls, and the remaining defenders of the city are forced to withdraw to east of the river Vistula. The Polish government has evacuated to Lvov. Austria Hungary pledges that the first of its freshly trained recruits will be sent to defend Poland, and that retaking Warsaw will be a top war priority. Italian Forces begin a counterattack into the South Tyrol.

17th February 1940 – After only holding the city for 5 days, the Italian Counterattack succeeds in retaking the western suburbs of Trieste, with clashes devastating the city.

The German offensive in Bohemia reaches the outskirts of Prague.

28th March – After a quiet month on the eastern front where all attempted attacks have resulted in stalemate, Austria Hungary begins an offensive to retake Trieste.

30th March – Taking advantage of Austria Hungary’s army being tied up in Trieste, a refreshed Italian force with their own mountain Alpini forces advance into the South Tyrol, undoing Austrian gains.

29th April – The second battle of Trieste is an Austrian victory, but in the Tyrol, Italy breaks the Austrian lines at Lagenfeld, before being halted short of the Inn Valley.

4th May – Italian forces traverse challenging terrain to capture key Tyrolean towns along the Zillertal and Wipptal valleys, but are unable to break through Austrian bottlenecks to reach the Inn Valley

27th May – A thrust from north Bohemia threatens to encircle Prague from the east, starting the first real Blitzkrieg attack of the war since September 1st.

5th June – A counter offensive from Prague from the west and Pardubice from the east succeeds in surrounding a portion of the German attack force but leaves Prague vulnerable from the west. German troops enter Prague and fight their way into the centre of the city.

7th June – Prague falls completely under German control, and what is left of the Austria Hungary forces defending the city and surroundings begins to withdraw to the south Sudetenland’s through a tenuous corridor, exhausted and running out of supplies. The encircled German forces east of Prague are freed by a Panzer thrust, breaking the line east of Prague.

12th June – Considerable strain is put on the forces defending Bohemia to widen the salient south of Prague to enable forces to withdraw to a line stretching from the south sudetenlands to Brno.
 
Just one a couple of things, nobody in the right mind will launch a serious invasion on the French border as it's not only heavily fortified on both side but by nature the most defensible terrain in Europe...OTL italian invasion was hastily done just to partecipate at the peace conference and everybody knows as it ended.
The OTL border with Italy in Tyrol is the second most defensible terrain in Europe and is still fortified...but only on the italian side (there was a reason we want it), basically any Austrian offensive through there will be basically a suicide (a direct attack to the Maginot Line will be easier)
Regarding the border in the est, even OTL was not only heavily fortified but Italy had kept the mountain line, so to have a natural defensive line in poor words the Austrian will have needed months of bloody battles to reach Trieste
 
That's a good point about the border with France. In this scenario it's believed that most of AH's forces are either defending against Germany or propping up Poland, so I suppose Italy would see an AH collapse as inevitable with their involvement and that if they could reach Vienna they could knock AH out of the war and focus on France. I just thought that strategically pressure would be put on Italy to enter the war as if AH falls, Poland falls too and if they fall, Germany can then focus on France. Italy probably would be more defensive against France at this point. I didn't realise that the Italian / Yugoslavian border was that heavily fortified. Do you have any info on this as I'd find it useful?
 
Well A-H was indeed still using “obsolete” Avia B-534, which still had decent performance but by September 1939 they would be probably on good way for rearming to this babies from Avia:

rs92024.jpg


On picture is Avia from one of Czech manned Fliegerkompanies of K.u.K. Luftfahrtruppen attacking German bombers over Prague.

Were Hurricans needed due to evacuation of Avia werke to rear areas?

Wouldn’t Nazis be pretty much screwed with Oil supplies? No Romanian, Hungarian (Hungary and Slovakia) Austrian or Galizian oilfields available. Transport from Soviets basically blocked by Poland for now.

What is position of Romania in this war? Are they pro A-H Polish allience or pro German?

Edit: Markings are not regular A-H markings but persoymarkings of Hauptman Alois Vasatko, commander of Flik Prague and ace with at least 32 German planes on his account.
 
Oh wow, I really like that. What was that model called? Would it be mass producible by 1940? I think Hurricanes would arrive to supplement the air force before these fighters can enter mass production. In this scenario the ones that went to Finland would have probably been more useful to the AH's and Poles. I know that PZL had prototypes and designs for contemporary monoplanes by the time of the invasion of Poland.

As for the B-534 I meant no disrespect. It was probably the best biplane fighter ever produced, I was using the BF-109 E as a benchmark for obsolescence, so really only considering low wing monoplanes. In experienced hands I can imagine the B-534's agility causing trouble for 109s and it'd probably still give the 110 a run for its money.

I think the K.u.K would be fascinating in general with squadrons from all over the empire, but probably dominated by the Czechs who would probably specialise in aviation. I believe they were already license building Amiots in 1938 so not a stretch to see them take on other French designs either.

Hm, as for the oil supplies, I considered getting the USSR involved in Poland, but in this scenario with Poland better able to resist and another ally in eastern Europe the Allies would be unable to admit anything other than being at war with the Soviet Union, and I think that the USSR and allies probably would have little appetite to have to commit to a full blown war with each other. Also, I think that the Nazi hatred for Russia and Communists might be a road block for a long term military alliance. What do you think?

I just imagine Romania to be trying their hardest to stay neutral and appease all sides as they did in OT in 1940. I think they'd probably have more sympathy to Poland and AH despite old grudges with the latter and might have more leeway to assist in some way without committing to war. All it'd take would be for the Ussr to join Germany and strategically Romania would be done for.

As for A-H markings, that would make for some interesting illustrations.
 
Coming late to the thread I would like to make some points.

While Yugofaschism might come to power I see no real reason for it since Serbia got most of what was promised in London, as has been pointed out Istria wasnt part of Croatia before WW2 and probably wouldnt affect Croatian attitudes (however resentment towards Hungary and the Magyarization that has been going on since the Ausgleich is very real).
Romania on the other hand is unlikely to come to any kind of agreement with a surviving A-H as long as Transylvania is A-H (now here is a real mutilated victory scenario in the east).
 
Oh yeah, Romania pretty much hate A-H, but also dont want another European war, especially involving nations on their border that could drag them in so would probably be leant on by France to accept A-H rearmament as a deterrent and buffer to any German or Serbian aggression. I believe Romania was on decent terms with Poland though
 
Romania did have good relations with Poland (and a defensive agreement which the Poles released them from OTL), Romania also had good relations with Serbia and no real territorial disputes (even refused Serbian banat when it was offered).
You are right that Romania OTL wanted to avoid war but that was a Romania that had fullfilled its war aims, in this scenario I suspect that we would see an Italian situation that is on the winning side but feel cheated of its main prize.
 
Werent the czech basically rebelling by the end of WWI and pretty much a given that they were independent?

And Hungary only went red about half a year after they have gone independent.
 
That's a good point about the border with France. In this scenario it's believed that most of AH's forces are either defending against Germany or propping up Poland, so I suppose Italy would see an AH collapse as inevitable with their involvement and that if they could reach Vienna they could knock AH out of the war and focus on France. I just thought that strategically pressure would be put on Italy to enter the war as if AH falls, Poland falls too and if they fall, Germany can then focus on France. Italy probably would be more defensive against France at this point. I didn't realise that the Italian / Yugoslavian border was that heavily fortified. Do you have any info on this as I'd find it useful?

https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vallo_Alpino_del_Littorio it's in Italian but you can use the automatic translation and there are ususeful link in the end

In general Italy can't really do easy and quick offensive, due to the terrain...maybe the only place is the Tyrol due to the control of the most important border pass but is all relative; on the plus side nobody can go through Italy quickly and without spill a lot of blood due to the natural defense and the border fortification.
 
Werent the czech basically rebelling by the end of WWI and pretty much a given that they were independent?

And Hungary only went red about half a year after they have gone independent.
Czech and Slovak POW in part formed Legions in Russia as well as Italy. However on home front they were serving till last day. They were some rebellions, like parts of “Slovak” 71st Regiment “Trencsen” in Bosna. However desertions from frontlines were I believe rare.
 
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