Austria-Hungary stays on the defensive

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Deleted member 1487

Riffing off one of my other posts, lets say that Conrad is not in charge of the Austro-Hungarian army during the fighting in 1914, and the replacement chief keeps the Galician forces on the defensive while tackling Serbia with the 5th, 6th, and 2nd armies. This leaves the 1st, 4th, and 3rd armies with the Koevess Group (really just a corps from the 2nd army) defending Galicia. This means they have too much territory to hold and abandon the Eastern half up to Lemberg (Lwow), while grabbing the useful stuff and burning the rest (I'm mainly thinking crops).
http://www.deutsche-schutzgebiete.de/webpages/kuk_Galizien_u_Lodomerien_1914+.jpg

This leaves the Galician detachment holding the San-Vistula line to the Lubaczow river and down Lemberg, utilizing the limited forts there for cover. The 3rd army and the Koevess group hold from Lemberg down through the Dniester, with forces dug in along river lines and broken ground whereever possible. Can they hold against the Russian steamroller?

The Russians were historically cautious moving into Galicia, especially the 3rd and 11th armies moving in from the east. The eastern group was especially cautious given that they thought they were going to meet the largest portion of the Austrian army and the supply lines ended significantly further back in the Ukraine. Historically they only reached Lemberg around September, pausing only briefly to let the Austrians dash themselves agains their artillery. So let's say the Russians don't meet the Austrians until about September 1st along the Lemberg-Dniester line. They outnumber the Austrians 2:1, but the ground is broken, there are plenty of defensible rivers and the Austrians are dug in, in full supply, while the Russian rail heads end several hundred miles back in the Ukraine.

The Northern groups are evenly matched numerically, but the Austrians are dug in on the strongest river lines in the area. They again have the advantage of superior rail, while the Russian supply is quite far back. These Russian armies were also marching far from their supply lines, but faster than the Eastern army group. They reach the Austrians about August 28th.

Can the Austrians hold until their reinforcements from Serbia arrive? Do their armies hold up against superior numbers and remain intact enough to be effective later on in the war, say by 1915 and 1916?
 

Deleted member 1487

Nothing? Really? Well, bump regardless.

Edit:
Okay, I will add my opinions, so hopefully I will get some bites.

In the north near the San-Vistula lines, the Russians are going to lose badly. They were smashed up pretty bad OTL when they went against the Austrians and it was only the collapse of the 3rd army near Lemberg that forced them to draw troops off their successful advance, which caused their later collapse. So, Northwestern Galicia holds pretty easy given the positional and geographic advantages that they hold, which means the Russians are hurt pretty bad in the exchange, as qualitatively (though the Russians have more big guns/howtizers) and numerically, they were about equal.

Eastern Galicia is going to be the decisive sector, but I think that they can hold, given that Brudermann and Koevess have the river lines and broken terrain plus the forts at Lemberg while the Russians are well beyond their lines of supply and probably too cautious to take advantage of their numbers immediately. This means that in the first few engagements the Russians feel out the Austrians, finally realize that they are weaker and go on the full attack. But this delay means that the fighting up north is settled enough to allow a corps or two to make the trip to Eastern Galicia to reinforce the situation. OTL the only reason the Russians were able to advance so quickly was the Austrians frittering away their troops in pointless, inconceived, and poorly-executed attacks. ITTL, the Russians are going to hamstrung by their logistics, which means that they are going to run through their ammo without being able to capture vast stores of Austrian supplies to fuel their advance. Which means that they are going to run out of steam much quicker here and be forced to charge Austrians trenches, using their manpower advantage to force a breech, only to run into a force that is fully supplied (though underequipped compared to their Russian opponents, who cannot take advantage of this).

This should get the Austrians through September, allowing enough time for replacements to come in and beef out the Eastern wing of the advance. Now, as for the Russian 9th army, without the Austrians knocking on the gates of Lublin, they will probably head north to Prussia, where they might meet the fate of the other armies sent there. Though it does have the interesting effect of drawing in greater German forces to the East, which means they don't have the numbers to launch the human wave attacks in Flanders later on that year. This wrinkle means a lot for the course of the war, as more British, French, and Germans survive 1914 and the Ypres salient probably doesn't exist.

Anyway, the Serbian campaign really will determine what happens in Galicia later on, which means that it needs to be thought about. With the 2nd army, the Serbs are outnumbered 2:1 immediately, which means Belgrade falls quickly, depriving the Serbs of a source of replacements and manufacturing. But they are likely to pull back to the south to continue the campaign. I really see it going until December and the Bulgarians getting involved for some easy territory. Especially if the Austrians are able to score some early victories, the Bulgarians are likely to be much easier to convince to enter the conflict.

So, if Serbia is wrapped up by December, Galicia is going to have to hold til then. I think it should be so long as the Austrians remain on the defensive and shout for the Germans to help them. So far they have suffered far less than historically, while the Russians are probably as poorly off or worse, given they are fighting at the end of their supply lines while the Austrians are on the defensive right on the hub of theirs. Given that Prussia is threatened earlier by more forces, it is more likely that they are going to be forced to commit more forces in the north, not mixing with the Austrians. Expect some serious bash ups, that may even draw some of the Russian Southwestern Front to the north. Even if not, the commitment of the reserves and first call ups of reservists and new recruits should hold them over until December.

As the Serbian campaign is wrapped up, the 2nd army is reunited with its lost corps and committed to Eastern Galicia. The 5th army and 6th armies probably ditch their Landsturm, which now are used to occupy Serbia, while they are fitted out with new, younger recruits and reservists and are either committed to the front in Galicia or become the sector reserve as new offensives are planned.

The major benefit to remaining on the defensive is the saving of lots of equipment, supplies, leaders (NCOs and Officiers), and especially trains. The Austrians lost 1,500 locomotives and 15,000 rolling cars in Galicia in 1914 historically. The average yearly production of locomotives was 350, so the blow was huge, meaning that troops could not be switched around easily nor food transported, which is a major cause of the lack of food in cities during the war. The food existed, it just could not be transported.

This means by 1915, the Germans are not present in Galicia and are separately positioned in Prussia and Poland. The Austro-Hungarians have their own exclusive front, probably with some Germans staff and training help.

1915 is going to be interesting, as it will mean that Falkenhayn won't be as pressured to commit to the East by Austrian weakness, but could be compelled to by politics. I think that he would anyway, just to get the threat to Prussia taken care of, which the Austrians were not going to be able to handle with only the 8th and 9th German armies. As it is, come April, the Austrians and Germans are going to both be launching their own massive attacks, the Austrians with at least 6 armies and the Germans with 4 or more. I don't expect the Austrians will do exceptionally well without German support, but that depends on how bashed up the Russians are and whether or not the Germans go with Ludendorff's plan to drive on Minsk, which I imagine would be possible with all the extra German strength concentrated in Prussia.

5 Russian armies would be in various states of readiness in the north and 4 would be in the south, against probably 4-5 German armies in the north, but 6 Austrian in the south. I expect something like Conrad's pincer dream comes true and the Russians get caught up pretty badly in the fighting, perhaps with even greater losses than OTL.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Nothing? Really? Well, bump regardless.

Edit:
Okay, I will add my opinions, so hopefully I will get some bites.

In the north near the San-Vistula lines, the Russians are going to lose badly. They were smashed up pretty bad OTL when they went against the Austrians and it was only the collapse of the 3rd army near Lemberg that forced them to draw troops off their successful advance, which caused their later collapse. So, Northwestern Galicia holds pretty easy given the positional and geographic advantages that they hold, which means the Russians are hurt pretty bad in the exchange, as qualitatively (though the Russians have more big guns/howtizers) and numerically, they were about equal.

Eastern Galicia is going to be the decisive sector, but I think that they can hold, given that Brudermann and Koevess have the river lines and broken terrain plus the forts at Lemberg while the Russians are well beyond their lines of supply and probably too cautious to take advantage of their numbers immediately. This means that in the first few engagements the Russians feel out the Austrians, finally realize that they are weaker and go on the full attack. But this delay means that the fighting up north is settled enough to allow a corps or two to make the trip to Eastern Galicia to reinforce the situation. OTL the only reason the Russians were able to advance so quickly was the Austrians frittering away their troops in pointless, inconceived, and poorly-executed attacks. ITTL, the Russians are going to hamstrung by their logistics, which means that they are going to run through their ammo without being able to capture vast stores of Austrian supplies to fuel their advance. Which means that they are going to run out of steam much quicker here and be forced to charge Austrians trenches, using their manpower advantage to force a breech, only to run into a force that is fully supplied (though underequipped compared to their Russian opponents, who cannot take advantage of this).

This should get the Austrians through September, allowing enough time for replacements to come in and beef out the Eastern wing of the advance. Now, as for the Russian 9th army, without the Austrians knocking on the gates of Lublin, they will probably head north to Prussia, where they might meet the fate of the other armies sent there. Though it does have the interesting effect of drawing in greater German forces to the East, which means they don't have the numbers to launch the human wave attacks in Flanders later on that year. This wrinkle means a lot for the course of the war, as more British, French, and Germans survive 1914 and the Ypres salient probably doesn't exist.

Anyway, the Serbian campaign really will determine what happens in Galicia later on, which means that it needs to be thought about. With the 2nd army, the Serbs are outnumbered 2:1 immediately, which means Belgrade falls quickly, depriving the Serbs of a source of replacements and manufacturing. But they are likely to pull back to the south to continue the campaign. I really see it going until December and the Bulgarians getting involved for some easy territory. Especially if the Austrians are able to score some early victories, the Bulgarians are likely to be much easier to convince to enter the conflict.

So, if Serbia is wrapped up by December, Galicia is going to have to hold til then. I think it should be so long as the Austrians remain on the defensive and shout for the Germans to help them. So far they have suffered far less than historically, while the Russians are probably as poorly off or worse, given they are fighting at the end of their supply lines while the Austrians are on the defensive right on the hub of theirs. Given that Prussia is threatened earlier by more forces, it is more likely that they are going to be forced to commit more forces in the north, not mixing with the Austrians. Expect some serious bash ups, that may even draw some of the Russian Southwestern Front to the north. Even if not, the commitment of the reserves and first call ups of reservists and new recruits should hold them over until December.

As the Serbian campaign is wrapped up, the 2nd army is reunited with its lost corps and committed to Eastern Galicia. The 5th army and 6th armies probably ditch their Landsturm, which now are used to occupy Serbia, while they are fitted out with new, younger recruits and reservists and are either committed to the front in Galicia or become the sector reserve as new offensives are planned.

The major benefit to remaining on the defensive is the saving of lots of equipment, supplies, leaders (NCOs and Officiers), and especially trains. The Austrians lost 1,500 locomotives and 15,000 rolling cars in Galicia in 1914 historically. The average yearly production of locomotives was 350, so the blow was huge, meaning that troops could not be switched around easily nor food transported, which is a major cause of the lack of food in cities during the war. The food existed, it just could not be transported.

This means by 1915, the Germans are not present in Galicia and are separately positioned in Prussia and Poland. The Austro-Hungarians have their own exclusive front, probably with some Germans staff and training help.

1915 is going to be interesting, as it will mean that Falkenhayn won't be as pressured to commit to the East by Austrian weakness, but could be compelled to by politics. I think that he would anyway, just to get the threat to Prussia taken care of, which the Austrians were not going to be able to handle with only the 8th and 9th German armies. As it is, come April, the Austrians and Germans are going to both be launching their own massive attacks, the Austrians with at least 6 armies and the Germans with 4 or more. I don't expect the Austrians will do exceptionally well without German support, but that depends on how bashed up the Russians are and whether or not the Germans go with Ludendorff's plan to drive on Minsk, which I imagine would be possible with all the extra German strength concentrated in Prussia.

5 Russian armies would be in various states of readiness in the north and 4 would be in the south, against probably 4-5 German armies in the north, but 6 Austrian in the south. I expect something like Conrad's pincer dream comes true and the Russians get caught up pretty badly in the fighting, perhaps with even greater losses than OTL.

Brudermann was a really bad general. He worked his way up in cavalry and resisted ever innovation of the previous half century viewing cavalry charges as the decisive instrument of battle. He was very much a "best defense is a good offense" type of guy. That combined with the point Keegan belabors about the AH Third Army not being very Kaisertreu in its mix of nationalities I do not see the KuK holding very long at Lemberg. Nor do I see Koevess holding off Brusilov too long. The best case IMHO is after Lemberg falls Ruszki advances slowly while Brusilov dashes ahead. This could cause a gap similar to Limanowa-Lapanow OTL esp. if the rest of Second Army is now freed up (I think you are being a tad overly pessimistic about how long it would take to crush Serbia with Second Army not reassigned)

And I am not sure things would go quite as easy further north. Arguably the second best Russian general after Brusilov was von Plehve the commander of Russian Fifth Army. He was able to get his command to move and change direction at a pace that astounded his enemies incl. the Germans at Lodz. I would see him going through AH Fourth Army's rear guards like a knife through butter.

Lastly I found a passing reference somewhere recently that the original plan Stavka had for Ninth Army was to attack Silesia heading for Posen. Then later the Grand Duke toyed with the idea of hitting East Prussia with 1st, 9th and 10th Armies but was persuaded by Ivanov & his chief of staff Alexeev to give SW Front the Ninth Army.
 

Deleted member 1487

Brudermann was a really bad general. He worked his way up in cavalry and resisted ever innovation of the previous half century viewing cavalry charges as the decisive instrument of battle. He was very much a "best defense is a good offense" type of guy. That combined with the point Keegan belabors about the AH Third Army not being very Kaisertreu in its mix of nationalities I do not see the KuK holding very long at Lemberg. Nor do I see Koevess holding off Brusilov too long. The best case IMHO is after Lemberg falls Ruszki advances slowly while Brusilov dashes ahead. This could cause a gap similar to Limanowa-Lapanow OTL esp. if the rest of Second Army is now freed up (I think you are being a tad overly pessimistic about how long it would take to crush Serbia with Second Army not reassigned)

And I am not sure things would go quite as easy further north. Arguably the second best Russian general after Brusilov was von Plehve the commander of Russian Fifth Army. He was able to get his command to move and change direction at a pace that astounded his enemies incl. the Germans at Lodz. I would see him going through AH Fourth Army's rear guards like a knife through butter.

Lastly I found a passing reference somewhere recently that the original plan Stavka had for Ninth Army was to attack Silesia heading for Posen. Then later the Grand Duke toyed with the idea of hitting East Prussia with 1st, 9th and 10th Armies but was persuaded by Ivanov & his chief of staff Alexeev to give SW Front the Ninth Army.

Well Tom, it seems you and I are the only ones interested in WW1 PODs, thanks for your help.
Brudermann, on further research, does seem to fit the profile you have presented, though I cannot comment about the composition of this army. They seem to have fought, regardless of the consequences, but may not hold if forced on the defensive. As to Serbia, thinking over the course of the campaign after I found the original plan for invasion before Conrad's orders tampered with it, I believe that the 2nd army can be taken out of the theater by mid-October if the Bulgarians enter the war, which given the prospect for gains, should be assured, provided the Germans could guarantee that the Ottomans won't back stab the Bulgarians.

I don't have as high an opinion of von Plehve as you though. His army was pretty well defeated by the Austrians in the first days of the war, and was only saved by Conrad calling off the pursuit and transferring forces away from the 4th army and forcing them to retreat. Sure, he reoriented his army quickly and fell on the retreating, weakened force, driving them back, but beyond successfully rallying his forces and returning them to battle, I have not seen anything to suggest that he was a particularly stellar commander. His later armies fought decently on the defensive, but nothing particularly inspiring.

Von Plehve's army was in possession of more howitzers and heavier guns, which would give them an advantage in positional warfare, but nothing that strikes me decisive. Both the Russians and Austrians strike me as forces that could fight well on the defensive, given enough time to prepare, but depending on the circumstances, were generally no too effective on the offensive, mainly due to poor leadership from above, as well as lack of trained NCOs and officers, both factors which were crucial later in the war.

The 9th army was originally to invade Germany, but was given to Ivanov due to the Austrians advancing on Lublin and Cholm, leading to the 9th being committed to stop the invasion of Poland. Without this pressure, I am not convinced that Ivanov will have the necessary argument to convince STAVKA to release that army to him. Sure it would be useful, but the 2nd army was smashed, Silesia was still to be invaded, and the Germans would be mauling Rennenkampf shortly. I see this army as staying with the Northwestern Front as was planned. It would probably be committed to invading Silesia, only to be recalled to help Rennenkampf in Prussia.
 
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