Austria-Hungary leaves the Central Powers in the end phase of WW1

Karl I. wanted peace with the Entente , because he saw that he cannot win the war. He tried to talk to Wilhelm II. but failed. Austria Hungary actually had talks with the Entente but after all, they didn´t make peace due to Germany´s opposition. The German high command wanted to prolong the war alone as long as possible in case of Austria´s exit. What if Karl actually pulled Austria-Hungary out of the war ? The Austrian people had been highly sceptical about the Habsburgs and the war, they were starving. How big was German Nationalism among the Austrian Germans at this time ? Would they accept the breakup with Germany ? Would the k.u.k monarchy survive a little bit longer and developes into a more democratic federation ? Could the German Reich actually declare war on their former closest allies ?
 
I find it very unlikely, A-H was basically on life support, with said support being Germany, which was its only neighbor that wasn't at war with Vienna, neither wanted a piece of it.

Simply put, the dissolution of Austria-Hungary was a goal for the Entente, peaceing out was't an option if Karl's goal was the survival of his realm.
 

Spengler

Banned
They did, and they were broken up. The allies are not going to forgive them for the rape of Serbia and they were as Monter said on life support.
 
The German-Austrian public will be very displeased at abandoning Germany, but will tolerate it if the food shortages end. There will still be many in favor of joining Germany later, of course.

At this point, Karl might save his throne and prolong the Habsburg dynasty's rule in a rump Austria and/or Hungary (secure or just prolong? no idea); but he is not going to keep his empire. The Entente doesn't want it, the monarchy's minorities don't want it, and there's very little Karl can do about either of those factors.
 
Didn't negotiations between Entente and KuK fail, because former wanted separate peace, while latter a general end to the war? French and Karl were actually relatively close to an agreement even for a general peace, but Germans wanted none of it, since it involved loss of A-L.
If Karl was willing to ditch Central Powers, well. Only Russia had major beef with KuK, while Italy was merely opportunistic in wanting piece of their territory. Neither France nor UK had any problems with it, in fact, UK would probably welcome some counterweight to Russia. So Karl should start to negotiate with UK, not France or Russia.
If we are talking about peace in 1916, nearly immediately after Karl becomes Emperor, Austria would certainly lose Galicia to Russia, Bosnia to Serbia, and whatever Italians were promised in treaty of Paris. Empire would not be dismembered since it would have to be a peace that Karl would have to accept. It might've still fallen apart though. In 1917, after Russia collapsed, they might get a better deal, but it would be harder to justify defeat after such a major victory. Not to mention sunk cost fallacy means the longer war goes on, the less willing to compromise either sides are.
So, there is very short window of opportunity, that is late 1916, when Karl is already an emperor and Russia still looks scary enough for CP defeat appearing as a matter of time.
 
The problem with Karl proposal were two (not considering any German reaction at A-H goverment trying to get a separate peace); first he agreed just in principle to give A-L to France and the restoration of Belgium and Serbia independence, not giving a clear political commitment and second he refused to give up any territory to Italy.
 
Didn't negotiations between Entente and KuK fail, because former wanted separate peace, while latter a general end to the war? French and Karl were actually relatively close to an agreement even for a general peace, but Germans wanted none of it, since it involved loss of A-L.
If Karl was willing to ditch Central Powers, well. Only Russia had major beef with KuK, while Italy was merely opportunistic in wanting piece of their territory. Neither France nor UK had any problems with it, in fact, UK would probably welcome some counterweight to Russia. So Karl should start to negotiate with UK, not France or Russia.
If we are talking about peace in 1916, nearly immediately after Karl becomes Emperor, Austria would certainly lose Galicia to Russia, Bosnia to Serbia, and whatever Italians were promised in treaty of Paris. Empire would not be dismembered since it would have to be a peace that Karl would have to accept. It might've still fallen apart though. In 1917, after Russia collapsed, they might get a better deal, but it would be harder to justify defeat after such a major victory. Not to mention sunk cost fallacy means the longer war goes on, the less willing to compromise either sides are.
So, there is very short window of opportunity, that is late 1916, when Karl is already an emperor and Russia still looks scary enough for CP defeat appearing as a matter of time.
The Entente had already promised the Czechoslovak their own state and even occupied Romania was still an Allied power, so the destruction of the KuK had become a Entente goal by 1917.
 
The Entente had already promised the Czechoslovak their own state
Promises made to Czechoslovak National Council were the best kind of promises, ones that you can break with impunity.

occupied Romania was still an Allied power
Okay, Romania was occupied. So? Poor Romanian performance means that Entente don't need to give them anything, just restore their pre-war border.

the destruction of the KuK had become a Entente goal by 1917.
Goals are just that, goals. Germany had goal of capturing Paris, didn't mean it happened.
If Entente decides that best-case result is unlikely, they'd try to settle thing with KuK without destroying them. Not that their attempts would succeed, since both sides were to meet half-way, and both wanted to go less further than that.

The problem with Karl proposal were two (not considering any German reaction at A-H goverment trying to get a separate peace); first he agreed just in principle to give A-L to France and the restoration of Belgium and Serbia independence, not giving a clear political commitment and second he refused to give up any territory to Italy.
So basically, while Karl was one of most sensible and willing to compromise for peace CP statesmen, he was still wholly unrealistic in his estimates for peace?
I mean, it was a start, so maybe if negotiations didn't break up, they'd hammer a mutual commitment that includes Italian demands?
 

Spengler

Banned
There still is the problem of Italy. Also Karl would have been at the least expected to agree to some of the Italian goals, and pay an indemnity to Serbia at the very least.
 
So basically, while Karl was one of most sensible and willing to compromise for peace CP statesmen, he was still wholly unrealistic in his estimates for peace?
I mean, it was a start, so maybe if negotiations didn't break up, they'd hammer a mutual commitment that includes Italian demands?

It's that by now it was too little; if he was at least clear that France A-L and Belgium independence was a 'conditio sine qua non' that he wholly agreed (Serbia can be independent but with an Hapsburg king or/and a custom union and face can be saved) things can happen but he also need to be quick and resolute otherwise the occasion will vanish (due to Germany blocking him or simple due to event of the war).
Italy can be satisfied but it need a mix of heavy handed diplomacy by Paris and London, forcing them to accept what offered and some real offer by A-H and not some vague promise...and at that you need to add some bonus gain over colony and the Ottoman Empire as a way to compensate Rome.
 
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