Austria-Hungary goes to war a year or years earlier - Great Power reactions?

raharris1973

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1. What if Austria-Hungary went to war with Serbia in 1913, either on behalf of Bulgaria in the second Balkan War (especially if it went longer and did not conclude so quickly), or over the status of Albania?

Will the Russians mobilize to protect the Serbs and their Balkan allies, and will drawn in Germany, France and Britain?

2. What if Austria-Hungary went to war with Serbia in 1912 and aligned itself with the Ottoman Empire for this purpose. Will the Russians mobilize to protect the Serbs and their Balkan allies, and will drawn in Germany, France and Britain?

3. What if Austria-Hungary did as Conrad wished in 1911 and attacked the Italians, using the Italian war against the Ottomans as the occasion?

What stance would Triple Entente powers take towards this "civil war" among formal Triple Alliance powers?

Do the Russians, and others, just sit back and have popcorn and enjoy watching German discomfiture as it loses one or both of its allies?

Or do the Russians think it is a ripe time to get revenge on Austria-Hungary for the Bosnian Crisis, with they or the French thinking that the divide in the Triple Alliance is an opportunity too good to pass up?

4. What if Austria-Hungary decides it *wants* to go to war with Serbia in 1908-1909 over its impudence and therefore does not want Serbia to accept any ultimatums. Under these circumstances, does Russia hang back and let the Austro-Hungarians deal with the Serbs unopposed, or do the Russian feel compelled to mobilize and fight against the Austrians and ultimately the Germans despite St. Petersburg's fears of domestic trouble and lack of military confidence at this time?
 
A prerequisite for actually going to war is a better prepared Austrian military - that is an increase in spending earlier than OTL. There were reasons why Austria-Hungary did NOT intervene/go to war like OTL...

The earlier Austria goes to war the less likely is a Russian intervention - because Russia is weakened from the Russian Japanese war (maybe not actually weakened on teh Wester n Front, but maybe less confident to be strong enough)

So lets start with 4. - Serbia is much weaker than OTL (lesser territory, less experienced army), so a "mingling of Serbia" in "domestic Austrian" situation could lead to the other big nations ignoring the situation (Russia is probably not seen as war ready which might lead to france trying to defuse the situation even when Russia tries to intervene).

But WHAT are A-Hs war aims?

An interesting chain of thought... Austrai goes bold and not only puts serbia in its place, but starts a wider campaign to reorder the Balkans i its favor.

If the Austrians pay off the Italians with ceding trient/trento and offering Libya as spoils of war, Austria could attack the OE - probably with making friends with Greece and Bulgaria too not only annexing Bosnia, but also Novi pazar (a wedge between Montenegro and Serbia) and establishing "albania" as a puppet ruled by an Austrian noble...

It would also prevent the Balkan wars a few years later...

3. Its a much different situation - officially Austria would attack an allied nation - even one that it believed unreliable (correctly in hindsight). But there is almost no real casus belli for Austria - and even if it had one, would it intervene, relations to the OE ware not THAT good after 1908?

Again what are the war aims of Austria?

2. If timed well A-H could make facts before Russia can mobilize - Serbian Army fighting south leaves less resistance. Then it improves Austrias situation and status, if A-H acts slowly and mkes blunders the dominoes will fall with a similar outcome as OTL

1. Its too late to really act - Austria would have all Balkans nations and Russia against it - no way the Austrian government CAN react this time.

resume -acting early might suceed - the later the worse outcome...
 
To expand on what Richter said, the Austro-Hungarian armies were in decent-ish shape in 1914, not so much before that. While it's definitely suitable for a quick war, something that is extremely laughable in hindsight, but if the war expands to include any other major power against A-H, massive problems will show.

One of its biggest problems is a serious lack of modern artillery. By 1914, A-H was only very recently issueing modern pieces and while they were excellent, they weren't enough iOTL and they certainly wouldn't in an earlier war. There may not even be any ready at all! This is a very, very big problem since artillery is the king of the battlefield and any shortages in modern guns and its ammunition will cripple the KuK armies' abilities on the field even against a weaker opponent.
 

BooNZ

Banned
To expand on what Richter said, the Austro-Hungarian armies were in decent-ish shape in 1914, not so much before that. While it's definitely suitable for a quick war, something that is extremely laughable in hindsight, but if the war expands to include any other major power against A-H, massive problems will show.
No. Relative to its peers and neighbours, the A-H military was in far better shape in 1900 than 1914. A-H military spending during that period lagged behind its peers, so stagnation during a period of innovation was the challenge facing the A-H military. However, the A-H military remained substantially better equipped and trained than its minor neighbours (including Italy) at least until the first Balkan war.

One of its biggest problems is a serious lack of modern artillery. By 1914, A-H was only very recently issueing modern pieces and while they were excellent, they weren't enough iOTL and they certainly wouldn't in an earlier war. There may not even be any ready at all! This is a very, very big problem since artillery is the king of the battlefield and any shortages in modern guns and its ammunition will cripple the KuK armies' abilities on the field even against a weaker opponent.
Agreed, but by the winter of 1908/09 modern fast firing 80mm artillery had been distributed to the whole of the A-H, while the Serbs were only starting to distribute a more limited number of French 75mm equivalents. The Italians introduced an excellent fast firing 75mm artillery piece in 1912, but it was not received by the troops until after 1914. Whatever their failings, the A-H military had a huge advantage in training and equipment over its minor neighbours that was steadily eroding over time.
 

BooNZ

Banned
1. What if Austria-Hungary went to war with Serbia in 1913, either on behalf of Bulgaria in the second Balkan War (especially if it went longer and did not conclude so quickly), or over the status of Albania?

Will the Russians mobilize to protect the Serbs and their Balkan allies, and will drawn in Germany, France and Britain?
Yes - OTL the Russians mobilized in late 1912

2. What if Austria-Hungary went to war with Serbia in 1912 and aligned itself with the Ottoman Empire for this purpose. Will the Russians mobilize to protect the Serbs and their Balkan allies, and will drawn in Germany, France and Britain?
Yes - OTL the Russians mobilized in late 1912

3. What if Austria-Hungary did as Conrad wished in 1911 and attacked the Italians, using the Italian war against the Ottomans as the occasion?

What stance would Triple Entente powers take towards this "civil war" among formal Triple Alliance powers?

Do the Russians, and others, just sit back and have popcorn and enjoy watching German discomfiture as it loses one or both of its allies?

Or do the Russians think it is a ripe time to get revenge on Austria-Hungary for the Bosnian Crisis, with they or the French thinking that the divide in the Triple Alliance is an opportunity too good to pass up?
At that point in time, I doubt France would have been prepared to back Russian Balkan adventurism - Britain certainly would not.

4. What if Austria-Hungary decides it *wants* to go to war with Serbia in 1908-1909 over its impudence and therefore does not want Serbia to accept any ultimatums. Under these circumstances, does Russia hang back and let the Austro-Hungarians deal with the Serbs unopposed, or do the Russian feel compelled to mobilize and fight against the Austrians and ultimately the Germans despite St. Petersburg's fears of domestic trouble and lack of military confidence at this time?
Ultimatum? OTL Russia told Serbia to back down, so no, Russia would have to suck it up.
 
1. What if Austria-Hungary went to war with Serbia in 1913, either on behalf of Bulgaria in the second Balkan War (especially if it went longer and did not conclude so quickly), or over the status of Albania?

Will the Russians mobilize to protect the Serbs and their Balkan allies, and will drawn in Germany, France and Britain?

Over Albania? Not a chance. Italy was too involved Serbian pretensions in Albania were of little concern to Russia.

If the effort is to create a greater Bulgaria, then yes. the Russians threatened Bulgaria with war if she threatened the straits and with Romania, Serbia Turkey and Greece as allies its a golden opportunity

2. What if Austria-Hungary went to war with Serbia in 1912 and aligned itself with the Ottoman Empire for this purpose. Will the Russians mobilize to protect the Serbs and their Balkan allies, and will drawn in Germany, France and Britain?

The Russians would have no problem putting a stop to the Balkan Wars before they started and wouldn't have minded the Balkan states being defeated either

3. What if Austria-Hungary did as Conrad wished in 1911 and attacked the Italians, using the Italian war against the Ottomans as the occasion?

What stance would Triple Entente powers take towards this "civil war" among formal Triple Alliance powers?

Do the Russians, and others, just sit back and have popcorn and enjoy watching German discomfiture as it loses one or both of its allies?

Or do the Russians think it is a ripe time to get revenge on Austria-Hungary for the Bosnian Crisis, with they or the French thinking that the divide in the Triple Alliance is an opportunity too good to pass up?

The Russians march. This is just too ripe of an opportunity to miss

4. What if Austria-Hungary decides it *wants* to go to war with Serbia in 1908-1909 over its impudence and therefore does not want Serbia to accept any ultimatums. Under these circumstances, does Russia hang back and let the Austro-Hungarians deal with the Serbs unopposed, or do the Russian feel compelled to mobilize and fight against the Austrians and ultimately the Germans despite St. Petersburg's fears of domestic trouble and lack of military confidence at this time?


The Austrians could get away with it. They won't gain much, it will alarm the Ottomans and the Russians would scrap their naval plans and build up their army fast
 

BooNZ

Banned
Over Albania? Not a chance. Italy was too involved Serbian pretensions in Albania were of little concern to Russia.

OTL Russia mobilized in 1912 to defend Serbia's right to initiate an offensive war against the Ottomans. OTL in 1914 Russia mobilized to defend Serbia's state sponsored terrorism in A-H. OTL the only reason Russia did not mobilize to defend Serbia's territorial aspirations against Albania was because international opinion (including France and England) united against those Serbian aspirations.

The Russians would have no problem putting a stop to the Balkan Wars before they started and wouldn't have minded the Balkan states being defeated either
OTL Russia was the key architect and sponsor of the Balkan League and the first Balkan war. A Russian sponsored Bulgaria-Serbian alliance for potential use against the A-H and/or Ottoman empires was a key part of Russian Balkan diplomacy since before the Russo-Japanese war.

The Russians march. This is just too ripe of an opportunity to miss
OTL in 1912 France made it perfectly clear they were not interested in war. Russian marching to war against Germany, A-H and the Ottomans, without England or France is a questionable 'opportunity'...

The Austrians could get away with it. They won't gain much, it will alarm the Ottomans and the Russians would scrap their naval plans and build up their army fast
A-H would have effectively countered Russia's ongoing efforts to build an effective Serbian-Bulgarian alliance, since the Balkan League would be dead without an independent and fully militerised Serbia. It is difficult to imagine why the Ottomans would be distressed about the elimination of OTL Serbian sponsored insurgency through Macedonia. OTL in 1908-09 the Russians were already building up their armies as fast as possible, it was only around 1912 the Russians started to refocus on their navy.
 
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