Austria-Hungary falls apart before 1900, or at least before 1914

What if. Austria-Hungary falled apart before 1900, or at least before 1914? That is the Habsburgs lose control of the non-German areas. Would Germany try to conquer the German-speaking areas? And if so, would the Habsburgs ally with France? Possibly there would be German nationalists within Austria that would try to get rid of the Habsburgs and Germany would probably have given them economic support. And what about Britain. Traditionally Britain supported the German state that France did not support (and France always supported the weakest state, so as to keep Germany divided), but Britain would hardly want a united Germany, so I assume that Britain would have joined the French-Austrian alliance, which would probably have meant that Germany would not be able to take Austria. What do you say?
 

jahenders

Banned
While disputes over German/non-German states is possible, I think one main result would be more Balkan wars. With a weaker Austria-Hungary, Russia and Serbia are likely more aggressive So, you have a lot more fighting down there. With all that going on, you could almost have France, Germany, and England facing off without real Russian/Balkan involvement. So, you might have some other spark provide the excuse for a German attack on France. The Russians are bogged down in the South, so Germany doesn't have to shift forces East. Germany has better success in France, possibly taking Paris or, at least, more fully mauling French and British forces and pushing farther West/South. Then, since Austria is too occupied to threaten Italy, Italy might decide to come in against the French, attacking her Med fleet and making some thrusts into Southern France.

This puts France in a much worse position, so they might sue for peace long before American gets involved.

America could be called upon to mediate two wars -- one in the West and one in the Balkans. Assuming a 1913/14 start, both end in late 1915.
 
How far before 1900?

If it's after 1879, Germany will certainly intervene to prevent its main ally being dismembered.
 
How far before 1900?

If it's after 1879, Germany will certainly intervene to prevent its main ally being dismembered.

What if they broke the alliance and allied with Russia? Then they could divide the Habsburg domains among themselves. Germany could perhaps even get the Czech lands.
 
What if Austria kept modern-day Slovenia, Czech Republic, Tyrol and Istria?

It makes for a really attractive border, IMO :D
 
No, I mean Slovenia, Croatian Istria, South Tyrol and Trentino, Czech Republic and Austria with or without Burgenland

Not sure if I got you right. Do you mean as part of Germany or as a continued separate state? And what would happen with Hungary and Slovakia? Would it be conquered by Russia?
 
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Not sure if I got you right. Do you mean as part of Germany or as a continued separate state? And what would happen with Hungary and Slovakia? Would it be conquered by Russia?

I meant as a separate state, but you could have it join Germany just as easily. It was the eastern border of the German Confederation, after all.

Hungary, with its pre-1918 borders, could continue as an independent Hapsburg Kingdom if the Austrian lands are lost, it could become a Republic or it could divide into several successor stats. It'd probably have more land than OTL Hungary today, anyway.
 
And what would happen with Hungary and Slovakia? Would it be conquered by Russia?

The million dollar question is what would happen to Galicia, since if it remains within Austria, it will make for an impossible geographical situation. Russia would certainly eye it...
 
Why didn´t Germany and Russia end up as allies instead of as enemies? They hardly had any more territorial disputes than Britain and Russia, or did they? From a German perspective, I would assume that Russia would also be a stronger allied than Austria-Hungary.
 

Redbeard

Banned
Why didn´t Germany and Russia end up as allies instead of as enemies? They hardly had any more territorial disputes than Britain and Russia, or did they? From a German perspective, I would assume that Russia would also be a stronger allied than Austria-Hungary.

Old Bismarck certainly was very aware of not alienating Russia too much. But the weakened Russia after the Crimean war left a window of opportunity for Bismarck in which he could turn on first Denmark, than Austria-Hungary and last France.

It appears like the Germans after three stunning victories simply caught "victory-disease" and thought they could take on the whole world. It took two big lessons to learn otherwise, but a more sound German strategy would from late 19th century have focussed more on not aliennating both Russia and UK.

But back to Austria-Hungary I take that the Hungarian crisises in 1848 and 1867 both were very close to dissolving said Empire. If a Russian army hadn't intervened in 1848 Hungary probably would have separated. The tension between Hungary and the habsburgs remained very tense and only cooled down a little after the socalled Hungarian Compromise in 1867 which de facto elevated Hungary inside the Empire but at the cost of other monorities in the empire. I guess it would not necessarily take big PoDs to have the compromise fail.

Regards

Redbeard
 
Why didn´t Germany and Russia end up as allies instead of as enemies? They hardly had any more territorial disputes than Britain and Russia, or did they? From a German perspective, I would assume that Russia would also be a stronger allied than Austria-Hungary.

My opinion is, that Bismarck searched the alliance with Austria, because he needed to stabilize it. Bismarck had constructed the new german Reich in a way, that it stayed dominated by the prussian aristocraty. This dominance would be endangered, if the german parts of Austria would join the Reich. Therefore, as long the Reich was ruled by the prussian Establishment, Germany had no real interest to allies himself with Russia against Austria.
 

Redbeard

Banned
My opinion is, that Bismarck searched the alliance with Austria, because he needed to stabilize it. Bismarck had constructed the new german Reich in a way, that it stayed dominated by the prussian aristocraty. This dominance would be endangered, if the german parts of Austria would join the Reich. Therefore, as long the Reich was ruled by the prussian Establishment, Germany had no real interest to allies himself with Russia against Austria.

I think seen from late 19th century the Habsburgs still appeared the big rival for control over Germany. The Habsburgs had been beaten in 1866 but were still there and by 1900 had the second higest growth in industrialisation, only beaten by Russia. After the Hungarian compromise of 1867 I don't think the collapse of the Habsburg Empire was expected - it actually stayed surprisingly well togehter until October 1918 when the army began dissolving: As long as the army existed the Empire existed, but as soon as the army died the Empire did too - as the Austrian poet Franz Grillparzer wrote: "In deinem Lager ist Östereich" - In your camp is Austria(my own translation).

Even if the Habsburg Empire by late 19th century clearly was minor compared to the German Empire it still was essential that the Habsborgs were "sworn in" to not disturb the Prussian hegemony over Germany. In that context I think the basics of German strategy were OK but that still didn't necessiate an aliennation of both UK and Russia.

I don't think a Habsburg collapse and an inclusion of German parts of A-H would endanger Prussian control over the German Empire. Prussia already held most of the population after large areas had been annexed into Prussia, and the protestant German states (I guess all except Bavaria) would support Prussia if it came to a kind of rivalry vs the Catholic states. But of course Prussia had a strong interest in keeping A-H alive - better control A-H through A-H than not control it at all :)

Regards

Redbeard
 
It appears like the Germans after three stunning victories simply caught "victory-disease" and thought they could take on the whole world. It took two big lessons to learn otherwise, but a more sound German strategy would from late 19th century have focussed more on not aliennating both Russia and UK.

That is also a good point. Having Russia both Russia in the east and France+Britain in the west as enemies seems like a bit of a mouthful.
 
I once offered up an AHC/WI in which Maria Therese died in childbirth (and gave birth to a stillborn Joseph II). That would have probably butterflied Austria-Hungary away, along with the Austrian Hapsburgs.
 
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