Austria-Hungary didn´t occupy Bosnia-Herzegovina

What if in 1878 the Ottoman province hadn´t been given to Austria for administration and military build up ? What geopolitical consequences would it have, if the country hadn´t been administrated by Austria for 30 years until 1908 , when it finally was annexed ? Would it have stayed formally Ottoman or could a greater Serbia want it to swallow in 1912 ? Imagine , no Sarajevo in Austrian territory wouldn´t have led to the visit of a certain Archduke in 1914 ...

edit: Well, it would possibly require for Russia to not occupy Bessarabia, too.
 
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Pomphis

Banned
The annexiation 1908 hurt russian-austrian relations. That would be avoided. I believe it also cost quite a bit of money which could have been used elsewhere. IMO AH would have been better off with B-H staying ottoman not just on paper, but also in reality. It might have been demilitarized and AH might have been permitted to base troops there.

1912 would have been a problem, as serbia would certainly have tried to occupy and annex it, which might have resulted in an AH-serbian war in 1912. Or AH might have taken part in the first balkan war and occupied it first, especially if it already had troops there.

Or 1878 might have seen the creation of one or two semi-independent principalities.
 
Well Austria got it because of an agreement with Russia - Austria/Hungary had interest to secure its Dalmatian posessions by adding Bosnia.

I believe you would need a big change in the 1870s to avoid Austria wanting (and getting Bosnia)

THis changes would likely change the history in 1912 that OTLs BAlkan war is butterflied away.

BUT

Even if the situation is the same in this 1912 Austria-Hungary would NEVER allow serbia to take Bosnia - this might actually lead to a wider conflict.
 
If A-H does not occupy BiH in 1878 but only neutralizes it under Ottoman overlordship, this will affect Serbian politics greatly. Add to that the sometimes unpredictable decisions of Prince/King Milan, the accession and assassination of Alxander with his whole family, the worsening relations with A-H, the Pig War, and it is impossible to jump from 1878 to 1912. In 1878 there is still a possibility to have serbia willingly inside the Austrian orbit (eve if the Magyars will do their best to sabotage that, presumably.
 
Since the insurrections in B-H (and the brief war between Serbia and Montenegro on one side and the Ottomans on the other) were the true spark for the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-78, it is difficult to see how B-H could be left out of the Berlin settlement of 1878. I suppose an autonomous principality of B-H under Ottoman suzerainty might have been created, although it is pretty unclear who would have supported it (and I am skeptic on the viability of such a state, given Austrian and Serbian appetites).

It is worth remembering that B-H benefited in economic and social terms from A-H administration over the 30 years between 1878 and 1908, but also that no separate Bosnian identity was born. The three-way split along religious (not ethnic) lines became actually stronger. I'm convinced that the end result would be more or less the same even if A-H had decided to set up a cantonal system.
Incidentally, I don't think A-H gained a real benefit from its administration (and later annexation) of B-H: the province required investments, standing troops and ultimately created a conflict between Serbia and A-H. Diplomatically, alienated Russia. In the end A-H would have been stronger if B-H had been left under Ottoman administration, provided that the Ottomans might be convinced to implement in full the reforms of Abdulmecid.

It is quite possible that the best (only?) solution for a peaceful Balkan peninsula would require much earlier (beginning of 19th century) Ottoman reforms, starting with the abolition of the Janissaries and the spahis system (neither the Obrenovic nor the Karageorgevich had any legitimacy other than leading more or less successful insurgencies against the Ottomans. This is however a topic that goes well beyond the scope of the OP and should be discussed in a separate thread.
 
If Bosnia isn't occupied by AH in 1878, then it probably becomes an autonomous principality under hybrid Christian-Muslim administration, while some small parts are ceded to Montenegro and maybe Serbia. From there on it's hard to guess at how things might develop in Bosnia. The native regime would probably do better at addressing social problems when compared to Austria-Hungary's administration in OTL, but it might also be more corrupt and less stable.

This also removes OTL's major bone of contention between Austria and Serbia. As a result the pro-Austrian Obrenovic regime stays in power in Serbia. (King Milan and his son were capricious rulers with questionable ideas on democracy and foreign policy, but without this part of the backlash their worst qualities wouldn't really come into play and they'd be only mildly unpopular. Thus the rival Karadjordjevic is never called to take the throne of Serbia, although they might still have a profitable career in Montenegro or Bosnia.)

The Ottoman Empire doesn't gain much by this change. There will probably still be a Balkan War to drive it out, but at a different time, due to Austria's greater influence in the Balkan states - it'll happen if and when Austria gives the green light and will likely involve Austria itself, slightly expanding its territory and greatly expanding its zone of influence (up to Thessaloniki?). If the autonomous principality in Bosnia isn't annexed by someone or broken apart by internal conflicts, it will likely be partitioned between Austria and Serbia at that point.

Not sure how this influences the relationship between Russia and Austria. Both will be in favor of the status quo for some time, but that doesn't prevent jockeying for influence and tripping up each other in the Balkans. In theory, Russia's desire for control over the straits and Austria's likely desire for a zone of political and economic influence stretching to Thessaloniki aren't incompatible, but in practice they could still turn out hostile.
 
How about an Austrian/Serbian_Ottoman War in the late 19th or early 20th century for control of Bosnia? Or an Ottoman victory in the 1st Balkan War due to Serbian plannings and Austrian intervention?

It could happen. I see in the scenario in my head TTL's Bosnia being divided under ethnic lines with the Croat parts forming what would be a Duchy of Bosnia and the Serb parts joining Serbia after it gets indepedence from the Ottomans. So there could be an Austrian-Serbian alliance against the Ottomans.
 
Could Bosnia-Hercegovina have ended up as part of Serbia already in 1878? I assume this would necessarily imply a stronger Russia? An interesting scenario would have been with an earlier POD, where Hungary became independent from Austria, rather than in union with it, possibly with a non-Habsburg monarch. If this happened, Russia would be relatively stronger, although this might be balanced by the other powers allying against it.
 
In Bosnia: it is annexed by Serbia latest in the Balkan wars. After that ethnic cleansing and chasing away as many muslims as they can. AH heavely promoted the development of a Bosnian muslim identity to separate the territory more from Serbia - this doesnt happen. I think that it becomes a mostly serbian territory.

If Serbia can get Bosnia in the Balkan wars maybe he will respect its agreement with Bulgaria (Russia would likely support this). This could mean the survival of the Balkan alliance under Russian influence.
 
How about an Austrian/Serbian_Ottoman War in the late 19th or early 20th century for control of Bosnia? Or an Ottoman victory in the 1st Balkan War due to Serbian plannings and Austrian intervention?
[Reposted with extension].
In 1878, Bosnia was suggested to become part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire or receive self government during negotiations with the Ottoman delegates to San Stefano, but the Russians were insisting that Bosnia should be consigned to Serbia instead. Finally, it was decided that Bosnia would remain part of the Ottoman Empire at the Berlin Conference and the province was to be safeguarded from Austria-Hungary and Serbia, along with the Sanjak to prevent Serbian claims to the Adriatic. This would also result in plans for 'Greater Bulgaria' to be reduced to allow Serbian expansion into Ottoman territory.

In 1912 [after a slightly delayed loss of Bulgaria and Ottoman coup in 1909 due to butterflies], the newly independent Bulgarian Kingdom signed an alliance with other Balkan Christian nations [except Romania] and declared war on the Ottomans on 1 October. In Serbia, the war plans were intended to ensure the conquer of Macedonia, but the Bosnian uprising diverted the Serbian Army's intentions to assist Bosnia and link up with Montenegro.
[To be continued.]


After the Serbian Army invaded Bosnia and the Sanjak Province on 5 October, the Bosnian Serbs and several deceived nationalists rose up and the Serbs took Uzice, with Sarajevo besieged on 15 October. At the same time, contact with the Montenegrin Army was made and the Montenegrins were asked to clear the forming 'Kosovo Pocket', which was achieved when the Serbian-Montenegrin Army linked up with units of the Bulgarian 1st Army on 28 October at Skopje after the defeat at Kumanovo earlier that day. After the encirclement of the Ottoman 4th Army in Macedonia, which was assisted by the pursuit of Bulgaria's 1st Army, the Ottoman Army prepared for an offensive to liberate Macedonia by attacking Thrace, assisted by the fact of the diversion of Bulgarian resources from Thrace after the failure of the Serbian offensive and the halting of the Bulgarian offensive with nearly an army destroyed and several brigades annihilated. The Ottoman counter-pursuit of the Bulgarians would liberate Adrianople and send the Bulgarian Army from the Kirklareli-Adrianople Line to the Maritsa-Burgas Line and lead to the virtual defeat of Bulgaria as a counterattack was impossible with the Macedonian Front diverting much of Bulgaria's attention.

To the south, an Ottoman offensive to the province of Thessaly and southern Greece with the intention of encircling the Greek Army and forcing its surrender was launched after the failure of the Greek Army to invade Ioannina and Epirus. Salonika and Western Thrace were secured temporarily and the Bulgarian 2nd Army was encircled and destroyed, first over 11-15 November 1912 at the Rhodope Mountains, which were barely defended on a wide front and left exploited gaps, and secondly, from 16 to 20 November during the following pursuit of the army remnants. After mopping up and refit, the Ottomans proceeded to invade southern Bulgaria from 24-30 November, stopping when shells fell over Sofia in early December. However, the stalled but successful Serbian and Greek offensives, along with a lack of air support, would seal the Ottomans' doom in Bulgarian heartland.


After the fall of the Macedonian Pocket, the Ottomans broke out on 31 October with heavy Ottoman and Serbian casualties assisted by defeated attacks from Albania and this contributed to the diversion of Bulgarian resources from Thrace as the troops who escaped [excluding a reduced pocket] linked up with Ottoman troops at Salonika and they led to the nearly successful Ottoman operations against Bulgaria. The Ottomans were defeated just after taking Sofia by the failure of its Stara Mountains-Struma-Eastern Thrace offensive in winter by logistics, weather, the fall of Albania and the Greek military in Thrace. Also, the Ottoman naval defeat on 16 December resulted in fears of an amphibious landing on Gallipoli and a crucial corps was transferred. Over the winter, the Serbs and Bulgarians launched a surprise counteroffensive that defeated overstretched Ottoman troops severely.

After the failure of the Ottoman offensive against Bulgaria on 11 December just after entering Sofia, the Serbs and Bulgarians counterattacked on the 15th-16th. Initial surprise resulted in the Ottomans retreating and the Greek assaults on the Dardanelles after the Ottoman defeats on 20 December resulted in the army retreating in chaos from the Bulgarian hinterland and prevented an initially planned counteroffensive against the Serbian-Bulgarian forces after stopping at the Rhodopes for the winter. The Ottoman withdrawal resulted in the effective loss of Bulgaria and its first army to the former empire in January 1913 [from 20 December to 30 January]. Other troops of the First Army and some of the Second Army's personnel [also ruined, but not removed from battle] ended up besieged in Adrianople and had to surrender in spring.


On 2 February 1913, the Bulgarian Army started its siege of Adrianople, which lasted until 26 May 1913. During the period, the Ottomans kept some relief by air and a narrow and frequently shelled corridor. This was assisted by the failure of an offensive against Lule-Burgas and Catalca [from the intentions of captured staff] on 7 February and subsequent counterattacks from 10th to 12th February. Although the fortress was relieved, shelling made sending supplies impossible. Meanwhile, Serbia and Montenegro had the besieged city of Scutari surrender and Albania fall into their hands [and Greek control in the south] by April. Macedonia was cleared while Bulgaria and Greece had eastern and western Thrace under their respective control. As Adrianople starved and wasted itself, the imminent surrender from threatening starvation was such that the Serbian offensive after transferring reinforcements from Albania, Macedonia and Thrace [along with Greek naval attacks and landings on the Dardanelles] succeeded when shells wrecked food-supplied buildings. The fall of Adrianople was followed by cleansing and resting, but the following offensive would rout the Ottomans from Kirklareli on 1 June, Lule-Burgas on 4 June and on 17 June, Catalca was pierced, allowing the Bulgarian advance to continue until Constantinople was reached on 23 June. By 3 July, the situation was totally hopeless that an armistice was signed exactly a week after, with exactly similar terms to the actual Treaty of London, but with more of Thrace for Bulgaria until Constantinople. Bosnia was taken by Serbia in a subsequent campaign during June as Greek forces from Thrace and Gallipoli caught up with the Bulgarians.

After the fall of Bosnia in July [from 7 June to 15 July, when the peace treaty was 2 days from being signed], the province was annexed into Serbia and would lead to international conflict. The Austro-Hungarians were offended, but couldn't be forced to invade Serbia until next year. The final campaign began after failed Ottoman attacks from the province led the Serbian 1st Army to counterattack and encircle the Ottomans in Sarajevo and Mostar from 3 February until 6 June, when the surrender and some conflict between nationalists, Serbs and Ottomans led to the successful invasion that led to the fall of Banja Luka on 13 July and the possibility of Austro-Hungarian intervention.
 
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