If the central Powers were to emerge victorious in late 1918, how would Austria-Hungary stay together or collapse?
The POD is the usual USA never joins the first World War. Germany is victorious in September 1918. No colonies are taken from Germany, as Germany eases reparation demands to get the Entente to release her colonies. The Ottomans become a confederation of Yemen, Asia minor (with an enclave in Mesopotamia), Hejaz, Mesopotamia, Kurdistan, Syria, Jerusalem and Beirut. Austria-Hungary becomes Austria-Hungary-Croatia with other parts of Cisleithania becoming autonomous provinces.
In this timeline, I think Austria-Hungary-Croatia would collapse in the late 1930's, due to protests in Galicia by Poles for more autonomy. Austria decided to cede the region to Poland altogether, but Ukraine then demanded that Austria cede the rest of Galicia (minus Bucovina). Due to Vienna's handling of the situation, or rather, lack of, Slavs in Croatia started protests, followed by Czechs and Italians. Hungary started lobbying for independence while Slovaks and Romanians also stirred up unrest. The Imperial-Royal Landwehr and Landsturm tried to quell opposition in Cisleithania since most of the K.u.K. deserted or joined the protests, but they were spread far too thin and were too outnumbered to make an impact, other than anger rioters. The Honvéd stayed loyal to Hungary and made sure that not a single Austrian soldier set foot within Hungarian land (minus Landsturm regiments forming in German enclaves). The kingdom of Croatia with it's Kraljevsko Hrvatsko Domobranstvo, took a similar stance. Serbia and Montenegro, puppet states of Austria, arrested Austrian ministers and mobilize forces to liberate their Slavic brethren. Albania, a protectorate, declares independence. Italy and Romania mobilize, followed by Romania.
For Germany, this was a chance to get rid of the "corpse" that they were shackled to during the Great War. Germany allowed Romania and Ukraine to mobilize, but only partially. After much debate in the Reichstag on whether or not to help their closest ally, stay neutral, or unite their German brethren into the empire, Germany moved troops to the Habsburg border.
Vienna was in chaos. The empire was collapsing around them. Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, Italy, Ukraine and even Germany were poised to march into their territory. Charles I tried to promise even more autonomy but it was too late for that. He turned to Germany to help in any way, but he was denied multiple times. He reluctantly resigned, leading to a provisional government that sought personal union with Germany. About two months after Poland was given part of Galicia, the collapse of Austria-Hungary-Croatia would be total. The Reichstag agreed to the union of Austria with Germany. As surrounding countries marched their armies into Austria, fighting broke out between the Romanian army and the Honvéd, that was already busy putting down Transylvanians and Slovakians, while keeping a watchful eye on German exclaves. Serbian and Montenegro forces were met with crowds celebrating them as liberators. The mood was similar in Venice and Istria. Italian army units also made landings in Dalmatia. While the region did have a significant number of Italians, it also had a significant amount of Slavs. Italians and Slavs soon began clashing in the street. As Italian and Serbian/Montenegro army units raced for territory, skirmishes broke out. As Germany feared that the situation might turn into bloodbath for control of the Balkans, a conference was held in Berlin to divide up the lands peacefully.
The conference solved some problems but left a lot of tension between countries. Ukraine got its part of Galicia, while Romania got Bucovina, the Carpathian mountain passes and the Banat. Most of Transylvania was still part of Hungary, but with significant autonomy. Hungary had to cede some lands to the newly formed Yugoslavia and to Germany, while granting the Slovaks independence. Italy got Istria, Venice, a lot of Dalmatia and the Italian part of South Tyrol. Most Croatian lands went to Yugoslavia. Austria became a German kingdom with autonomy similar to Bavaria. Austria had the Sudetenland, Bratislava and Slovenia as an autonomous province, giving Germany direct access to the Mediterranean. Czechoslovakia was formed but as a German protectorate. Albania, despite declaring independence, was split. Yugoslavia acquired the North, Greece got Northern Epirus, Italy got Valona and set up a protectorate in the rest of the country while Bulgaria got a few border adjustments.
Overall the conference was a success. Italy became friendlier to Germany which was a major goal. Germany also gained direct access to the Mediterranean. But the conference was negative in two aspects. The first was that Germany failed to set up a puppet Croatian state. Yugoslavia formed since Serbia took too long to send delegates, sending them after Yugoslavia was proclaimed. The second was that Germany gained a major kingdom that challenged Prussia's dominance within the Kaiserreich.
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But I wasn't sure if Austria would or even could collapse this way. Perhaps it would just grant (nominal) independence to some of it's territories? Maybe Venice, Croatia, Galicia and Bohemia would be nominally independent while Serbia, Montenegro and Albania are able to break off Austria's shackles while Hungary is granted full independence?
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So, what is the most realistic way Austria-Hungary would collapse? Would it be able to stay together?
Here's the base map if anyone wants to show their interpretation. Any and all input is appreciated, thank you.
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(sorry for the small image sizes btw)