Austria-Hungary Collapse in a Cp victory

Italy got Istria, Venice, a lot of Dalmatia and the Italian part of South Tyrol. Austria became a German kingdom with autonomy similar to Bavaria. Austria had the Sudetenland, Bratislava and Slovenia as an autonomous province, giving Germany direct access to the Mediterranean.

If Germany has Slovenia, then how does Italy get to Istria? It will have no common border. And the former KuK Navy (whether under German or Croatian command) would be perfectly capable of defeating any attack by sea.

Indeed, will Italy even have a navy? If the CPs win, then it is quite likely surrendered to them, or else scuttled in order to avoid such surrender.

If Germany has Slovenia, it will surely annex Istria as well, as it will want the Austrian naval base at Pola, to give itself a naval presence on the Adriatic. It may also pressure the Croats into giving it a 99-year lease or similar of the other base at Cattaro.
 
If Germany has Slovenia, then how does Italy get to Istria? It will have no common border. And the former KuK Navy (whether under German or Croatian command) would be perfectly capable of defeating any attack by sea.

Indeed, will Italy even have a navy? If the CPs win, then it is quite likely surrendered to them, or else scuttled in order to avoid such surrender.

If Germany has Slovenia, it will surely annex Istria as well, as it will want the Austrian naval base at Pola, to give itself a naval presence on the Adriatic. It may also pressure the Croats into giving it a 99-year lease or similar of the other base at Cattaro.

I thought that if the non German elements of the K.u.K. would desert, shouldn't the non German elements of the K.u.K. Navy do the same? Italy surrendered ITTL due to France surrounding, followed by England asking for an armistice, so it was a negotiated peace instead of one where the Central powers could impose extremely harsh restrictions on the armed forces of Italy, unlike France.
 
I thought that if the non German elements of the K.u.K. would desert, shouldn't the non German elements of the K.u.K. Navy do the same?

Which was why I added the words "or Croatian".

The sailors in the KuK Navy were predominantly South Slavs (mostly Croats iirc) which was why all naval officers had to be proficient in the Serbo-Croat language.

Some of the officers might have wanted to stick with Austria (ie Germany) but the sailors might beg to differ. However it really makes little difference as both would be anti-Italian.

Italy surrendered ITTL due to France surrounding, followed by England asking for an armistice, so it was a negotiated peace instead of one where the Central powers could impose extremely harsh restrictions on the armed forces of Italy, unlike France.

If France falls, so does Italy. It won't last a week once the Western Front disappears. I don't quite see how GB seeking an armistice enables Italy (or France FTM) to get a negotiated peace. Afaics it would be about as "negotiated" as Brest-Litovsk.
 
Wasn´t the right to vote in Hungary very limited to only land owners? And iirc to read here that both FF and Karl wanted at least change that ie. increase the franchise.
Pretty much. I don't remember the percentage, but suffrage was incredibly limited. It was one of Hungary's major issues. As the war went on, there were growing calls for expanded suffrage at least for veterans, then universal.
 
As the war went on, there were growing calls for expanded suffrage at least for veterans, then universal.

Germany was the same, it wasn't going to fly that millions of 18-24 year olds could be denied equal suffrage after they had proven their loyalty to the state with incredible sacrifice in battle.
 
I think that, with a scenario that ends the war in 1916/mid 1917, A-H is not quite doomed. The monarchy has greatly undermined itself, but it hasn't yet started the gallop towards collapse that we see by the spring of 1918. And maybe it can even be salvaged in the longer term...though I'm kinda skeptical of that.

IMO federalization is just wishful thinking, at least in the short- and mid-term. FF was no federalist at all, and as for Karl...well, as Christopher Brennan puts it: "...despite the mythology later developed by his supporters, Karl was, prior to his fall, as unconvincing a federalist as Franz Ferdinand."
It's not completely impossible, but I don't really see it happening. Let alone in a timely and well-executed manner.

It is my impression that the Hungarians might have been the most supportive of the Empire after the Hapsburgs themselves, both seem to have no where to go when the Empire ends. Austrians can join Germany, the various ethnicities can gain independence but Hungary only gets dismembered. And as far as we can tell Karl was not savvy enough and FF would not be finessed enough to thread the peoples together. So I agree that war once begun held little promise of uniting the Empire and in fact accelerated the downfall. So do we get a divorce here? Do Austrian lands spin out and Hungarian lands form a still multi-ethnic Kingdom holding Slovaks, Croats and Romanians? At best the Austrian "half" becomes another German Kingdom? Can this Austria hold the Czechs or Slovenes? Do we see a South Slav nation built?

I think most folks here hope for the "three" Kingdom result but I think once it begins the thing ends up the patchwork, even Yugoslavia is unlikely, unless there is some external threat like Russia and Italy offered to make A-H look better than becoming part of someone else. None of these people wanted less than independence but simply being conquered by another Empire kept them nominally obedient to Vienna. I am not convinced Germany wants another Catholic Kingdom nor the Hapsburgs interjected into its internal dynamics but can we yet get Austria into the Empire? And can we get more than rump Hungary if this thing crumbles? I assume in a CP "victory" the ultimate implosion is simply pushed off, perhaps a generation, so we see the "Prague Spring" boil over in the 1930s or 1940s?
 
So, since it's unlikely that Austria-Hungary would collapse, how would it reform? Would a third Kingdom of Croatia come into existence? Is the idea of the United States of Greater Austria feasible? I heard that Charles I wanted a Croatian kingdom, but more input is appreciated
 
So, since it's unlikely that Austria-Hungary would collapse, how would it reform? Would a third Kingdom of Croatia come into existence? Is the idea of the United States of Greater Austria feasible? I heard that Charles I wanted a Croatian kingdom, but more input is appreciated
There were not a direct plan, seems Charle I thought FF was to be serious with USGA(that was one of his plan, but FF wanted a Hasburg empire, one trasncendt both german and magyar culture and all other minor ones in the Hasburg lands(hereditaries and non hereditaries one)) and think either applied piece by piece(the croatian kingdom as a south slav one under full Hasburg control and to curtail hungary piece by piece) so the plans of Charles I was to reform the empire step to step using FF USGA and other plans as convenient,a mess but that is how you untangled the hasburg knot.
 
Is something as drastic as USGA needed to avoid a post WW1 'collapse'?

Might giving all 20 year olds a secret, equal vote satisfy many of the concerns in the short term and allow a more measured constitutional reform process in the medium-long term? Indeed universal suffrage would most likely lead to constitutional reform suitable to the majority of the population.
 
If the central Powers were to emerge victorious in late 1918, how would Austria-Hungary stay together or collapse?

The POD is the usual USA never joins the first World War. Germany is victorious in September 1918. No colonies are taken from Germany, as Germany eases reparation demands to get the Entente to release her colonies. The Ottomans become a confederation of Yemen, Asia minor (with an enclave in Mesopotamia), Hejaz, Mesopotamia, Kurdistan, Syria, Jerusalem and Beirut. Austria-Hungary becomes Austria-Hungary-Croatia with other parts of Cisleithania becoming autonomous provinces.

In this timeline, I think Austria-Hungary-Croatia would collapse in the late 1930's, due to protests in Galicia by Poles for more autonomy. Austria decided to cede the region to Poland altogether, but Ukraine then demanded that Austria cede the rest of Galicia (minus Bucovina). Due to Vienna's handling of the situation, or rather, lack of, Slavs in Croatia started protests, followed by Czechs and Italians. Hungary started lobbying for independence while Slovaks and Romanians also stirred up unrest. The Imperial-Royal Landwehr and Landsturm tried to quell opposition in Cisleithania since most of the K.u.K. deserted or joined the protests, but they were spread far too thin and were too outnumbered to make an impact, other than anger rioters. The Honvéd stayed loyal to Hungary and made sure that not a single Austrian soldier set foot within Hungarian land (minus Landsturm regiments forming in German enclaves). The kingdom of Croatia with it's Kraljevsko Hrvatsko Domobranstvo, took a similar stance. Serbia and Montenegro, puppet states of Austria, arrested Austrian ministers and mobilize forces to liberate their Slavic brethren. Albania, a protectorate, declares independence. Italy and Romania mobilize, followed by Romania.

For Germany, this was a chance to get rid of the "corpse" that they were shackled to during the Great War. Germany allowed Romania and Ukraine to mobilize, but only partially. After much debate in the Reichstag on whether or not to help their closest ally, stay neutral, or unite their German brethren into the empire, Germany moved troops to the Habsburg border.

Vienna was in chaos. The empire was collapsing around them. Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, Italy, Ukraine and even Germany were poised to march into their territory. Charles I tried to promise even more autonomy but it was too late for that. He turned to Germany to help in any way, but he was denied multiple times. He reluctantly resigned, leading to a provisional government that sought personal union with Germany. About two months after Poland was given part of Galicia, the collapse of Austria-Hungary-Croatia would be total. The Reichstag agreed to the union of Austria with Germany. As surrounding countries marched their armies into Austria, fighting broke out between the Romanian army and the Honvéd, that was already busy putting down Transylvanians and Slovakians, while keeping a watchful eye on German exclaves. Serbian and Montenegro forces were met with crowds celebrating them as liberators. The mood was similar in Venice and Istria. Italian army units also made landings in Dalmatia. While the region did have a significant number of Italians, it also had a significant amount of Slavs. Italians and Slavs soon began clashing in the street. As Italian and Serbian/Montenegro army units raced for territory, skirmishes broke out. As Germany feared that the situation might turn into bloodbath for control of the Balkans, a conference was held in Berlin to divide up the lands peacefully.

The conference solved some problems but left a lot of tension between countries. Ukraine got its part of Galicia, while Romania got Bucovina, the Carpathian mountain passes and the Banat. Most of Transylvania was still part of Hungary, but with significant autonomy. Hungary had to cede some lands to the newly formed Yugoslavia and to Germany, while granting the Slovaks independence. Italy got Istria, Venice, a lot of Dalmatia and the Italian part of South Tyrol. Most Croatian lands went to Yugoslavia. Austria became a German kingdom with autonomy similar to Bavaria. Austria had the Sudetenland, Bratislava and Slovenia as an autonomous province, giving Germany direct access to the Mediterranean. Czechoslovakia was formed but as a German protectorate. Albania, despite declaring independence, was split. Yugoslavia acquired the North, Greece got Northern Epirus, Italy got Valona and set up a protectorate in the rest of the country while Bulgaria got a few border adjustments.

Overall the conference was a success. Italy became friendlier to Germany which was a major goal. Germany also gained direct access to the Mediterranean. But the conference was negative in two aspects. The first was that Germany failed to set up a puppet Croatian state. Yugoslavia formed since Serbia took too long to send delegates, sending them after Yugoslavia was proclaimed. The second was that Germany gained a major kingdom that challenged Prussia's dominance within the Kaiserreich.

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But I wasn't sure if Austria would or even could collapse this way. Perhaps it would just grant (nominal) independence to some of it's territories? Maybe Venice, Croatia, Galicia and Bohemia would be nominally independent while Serbia, Montenegro and Albania are able to break off Austria's shackles while Hungary is granted full independence?

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So, what is the most realistic way Austria-Hungary would collapse? Would it be able to stay together?
Here's the base map if anyone wants to show their interpretation. Any and all input is appreciated, thank you.
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(sorry for the small image sizes btw)


Unlike what everyone thinks, Austria-Hungary wasn't so close to dissolution. A victory in ww1 I believe would lead to Austria-Hungary surviving even further into the future. If they win, Austria-Hungary has no enemies. The Central Powers dominate the world under Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottomans, and the Bulgarians. Austria-Hungary could survive even if they don't implement United States of Greater Austria. If there was Civil war in Austria-Hungary, it's so easy. Germany, Bulgaria, and the Ottomans would send troops, and let the monarchy get back in power. There really isn't a way for Austria-Hungary to fall easily. If they impliment USGA, they're fine.

In a Central Victory, I wouldn't be suprised if Austria-Hungary, or USGA makes it to 2018 today.
 
Is something as drastic as USGA needed to avoid a post WW1 'collapse'?

Might giving all 20 year olds a secret, equal vote satisfy many of the concerns in the short term and allow a more measured constitutional reform process in the medium-long term? Indeed universal suffrage would most likely lead to constitutional reform suitable to the majority of the population.
Just giving ideas and other did take better points, in fact Full sufrage was FF Plan b, he expected hung parilament and thus be able to rule via decret so he can finally untagled the mess, so yeah post war and other will help slowly the empire
 
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