Austria-Hungary Collapse in a Cp victory

[No_Names_Left321]

If the central Powers were to emerge victorious in late 1918, how would Austria-Hungary stay together or collapse?

The POD is the usual USA never joins the first World War. Germany is victorious in September 1918. No colonies are taken from Germany, as Germany eases reparation demands to get the Entente to release her colonies. The Ottomans become a confederation of Yemen, Asia minor (with an enclave in Mesopotamia), Hejaz, Mesopotamia, Kurdistan, Syria, Jerusalem and Beirut. Austria-Hungary becomes Austria-Hungary-Croatia with other parts of Cisleithania becoming autonomous provinces.

In this timeline, I think Austria-Hungary-Croatia would collapse in the late 1930's, due to protests in Galicia by Poles for more autonomy. Austria decided to cede the region to Poland altogether, but Ukraine then demanded that Austria cede the rest of Galicia (minus Bucovina). Due to Vienna's handling of the situation, or rather, lack of, Slavs in Croatia started protests, followed by Czechs and Italians. Hungary started lobbying for independence while Slovaks and Romanians also stirred up unrest. The Imperial-Royal Landwehr and Landsturm tried to quell opposition in Cisleithania since most of the K.u.K. deserted or joined the protests, but they were spread far too thin and were too outnumbered to make an impact, other than anger rioters. The Honvéd stayed loyal to Hungary and made sure that not a single Austrian soldier set foot within Hungarian land (minus Landsturm regiments forming in German enclaves). The kingdom of Croatia with it's Kraljevsko Hrvatsko Domobranstvo, took a similar stance. Serbia and Montenegro, puppet states of Austria, arrested Austrian ministers and mobilize forces to liberate their Slavic brethren. Albania, a protectorate, declares independence. Italy and Romania mobilize, followed by Romania.

For Germany, this was a chance to get rid of the "corpse" that they were shackled to during the Great War. Germany allowed Romania and Ukraine to mobilize, but only partially. After much debate in the Reichstag on whether or not to help their closest ally, stay neutral, or unite their German brethren into the empire, Germany moved troops to the Habsburg border.

Vienna was in chaos. The empire was collapsing around them. Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, Italy, Ukraine and even Germany were poised to march into their territory. Charles I tried to promise even more autonomy but it was too late for that. He turned to Germany to help in any way, but he was denied multiple times. He reluctantly resigned, leading to a provisional government that sought personal union with Germany. About two months after Poland was given part of Galicia, the collapse of Austria-Hungary-Croatia would be total. The Reichstag agreed to the union of Austria with Germany. As surrounding countries marched their armies into Austria, fighting broke out between the Romanian army and the Honvéd, that was already busy putting down Transylvanians and Slovakians, while keeping a watchful eye on German exclaves. Serbian and Montenegro forces were met with crowds celebrating them as liberators. The mood was similar in Venice and Istria. Italian army units also made landings in Dalmatia. While the region did have a significant number of Italians, it also had a significant amount of Slavs. Italians and Slavs soon began clashing in the street. As Italian and Serbian/Montenegro army units raced for territory, skirmishes broke out. As Germany feared that the situation might turn into bloodbath for control of the Balkans, a conference was held in Berlin to divide up the lands peacefully.

The conference solved some problems but left a lot of tension between countries. Ukraine got its part of Galicia, while Romania got Bucovina, the Carpathian mountain passes and the Banat. Most of Transylvania was still part of Hungary, but with significant autonomy. Hungary had to cede some lands to the newly formed Yugoslavia and to Germany, while granting the Slovaks independence. Italy got Istria, Venice, a lot of Dalmatia and the Italian part of South Tyrol. Most Croatian lands went to Yugoslavia. Austria became a German kingdom with autonomy similar to Bavaria. Austria had the Sudetenland, Bratislava and Slovenia as an autonomous province, giving Germany direct access to the Mediterranean. Czechoslovakia was formed but as a German protectorate. Albania, despite declaring independence, was split. Yugoslavia acquired the North, Greece got Northern Epirus, Italy got Valona and set up a protectorate in the rest of the country while Bulgaria got a few border adjustments.

Overall the conference was a success. Italy became friendlier to Germany which was a major goal. Germany also gained direct access to the Mediterranean. But the conference was negative in two aspects. The first was that Germany failed to set up a puppet Croatian state. Yugoslavia formed since Serbia took too long to send delegates, sending them after Yugoslavia was proclaimed. The second was that Germany gained a major kingdom that challenged Prussia's dominance within the Kaiserreich.

But I wasn't sure if Austria would or even could collapse this way. Perhaps it would just grant (nominal) independence to some of it's territories? Maybe Venice, Croatia, Galicia and Bohemia would be nominally independent while Serbia, Montenegro and Albania are able to break off Austria's shackles while Hungary is granted full independence?

So, what is the most realistic way Austria-Hungary would collapse? Would it be able to stay together?
Here's the base map if anyone wants to show their interpretation. Any and all input is appreciated, thank you.

(sorry for the small image sizes btw)

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Victory in *WWI would prolong the Empire, not lead to it's dissolution. Contrary to majority opinion on this site, prior to OTL WWI Vienna was doing a pretty good job of keeping the various Crownlands content and balancing the differing claims they presented. The Hungarians were not agitating for independence, either.

If the CP are victorious, the only *Poland that would exist (in the immediate post-war period, at least) would be some form of Kingdom of Poland as a CP puppet. I think it's unlikely that AH would be losing territory to *Poland and a victorious Vienna ceding territory is nigh-on impossible.

 

[Riain]

Implosion isn't the only option for a country with internal problems, constitutional reform is another. Perhaps AH could reform into a more federal and less imperial structure and stay whole.

 

[lukedalton]

Victory in *WWI would prolong the Empire, not lead to it's dissolution. Contrary to majority opinion on this site, prior to OTL WWI Vienna was doing a pretty good job of keeping the various Crownlands content and balancing the differing claims they presented. The Hungarians were not agitating for independence, either.

If the CP are victorious, the only *Poland that would exist (in the immediate post-war period, at least) would be some form of Kingdom of Poland as a CP puppet. I think it's unlikely that AH would be losing territory to *Poland and a victorious Vienna ceding territory is nigh-on impossible.

We are talking about a very late victory, by now the enstablishment is discredited and the Empire is basically an appendage of Germany, any serious legitimancy is gone. Post-war there will be all the problems that afflicted OTL victors...plus the previous one that have not be resolved but only exacerbated, there will be economic and social distress...and frankly i don't see Wien as really equipped to face them (and if pre-war and during peacetime the Hapsburg goverment was not capable to decide any serious reform, i doubt that in that kind of situation they will capable of decide anything.
Maybe it will last till the 30's, but only with German support and as i said everyone will know who really give the order.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

We are talking about a very late victory, by now the enstablishment is discredited and the Empire is basically an appendage of Germany, any serious legitimancy is gone. Post-war there will be all the problems that afflicted OTL victors...plus the previous one that have not be resolved but only exacerbated, there will be economic and social distress...and frankly i don't see Wien as really equipped to face them (and if pre-war and during peacetime the Hapsburg goverment was not capable to decide any serious reform, i doubt that in that kind of situation they will capable of decide anything.
Maybe it will last till the 30's, but only with German support and as i said everyone will know who really give the order.

You mean like the British and French empires collapsed after WWI?

What do you mean by “the previous one that have not be resolved but only exacerbated”? Also, you mention “serious reform” as if AH was hanging on by a thread pre-WWI, when it was nowhere near such a situation. Victory in *WWI would bring financial restitution in some form of reparations, territorial aggrandisement (allowing various Crownlands to be redrawn) and weakening of neighbouring, competitive powers.

Quite how you interpret this situation to mean Vienna would be weaker than in 1914 is beyond me.

 

[Mikestone8]

Why would the Croats secede from A/H if the Italians are attacking them in Istria and Dalmatia? Their first priority would be repelling this invasion, though they might seek greater autonomy as well after Italy was beaten off.

Incidentally, in a CP-victory world, Italy, Serbia and Rumania are all on the losing side. What sort of armed forces do you envisage them being allowed to have?

 

[lukedalton]

You mean like the British and French empires collapsed after WWI?

Not collapsed but were economically and politically spent (expecially the French) and have a lot of problem; they survived (France barely) thanks to having a stronger and modern nation system. A-H was more something out of the 18th century than a modern nation.

What do you mean by “the previous one that have not be resolved but only exacerbated”? Also, you mention “serious reform” as if AH was hanging on by a thread pre-WWI, when it was nowhere near such a situation. Victory in *WWI would bring financial restitution in some form of reparations, territorial aggrandisement (allowing various Crownlands to be redrawn) and weakening of neighbouring, competitive powers.

Well there were the situation with Hungary, the Croatian that demanded more autonomy, the growing nationalism of other ethnicity, the impasse of the goverment due to Hungarian obstruction and the general lack of represantation; much of the problem of A-H was that while the goverment know that reform were needed was totally uncapable to decide what reform.
Territorial expansion will be very scarce, Wien don't want other minority to add at the already problematic situation at max some border rettification to make thing easier for them (basically Romania); money from who? Russia is in civil war, Italy will be broken and occupied in her own civil war, the British will give nothing and France has already been drained by Germany...and frankly even OTL in the end Germany had payed just a fraction of the reparation and surely not enough to compensate France.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Not collapsed but were economically and politically spent (especially the French) and have a lot of problem; they survived (France barely) thanks to having a stronger and modern nation system. A-H was more something out of the 18th century than a modern nation.

Nonsense. France barely survived? Interesting interpretation of a nation that occupied territory of its greatest enemy and expanded it's colonial empire. That interpretation of A-H is not backed up by the facts, in relation to it's pre-War structure and internal politics.

Well there were the situation with Hungary, the Croatian that demanded more autonomy, the growing nationalism of other ethnicity, the impasse of the government due to Hungarian obstruction and the general lack of representation; much of the problem of A-H was that while the government know that reform were needed was totally incapable to decide what reform.

Not related to reality, but fair enough. None of the 'problems' you've listed caused A-H any issues when it came to mobilising and fighting WWI OTL. They were all issues that every Empire faced to one degree or another pre-WWI and there's no reason to doubt the masters of compromise in Vienna would find their way through them after a victorious *WWI.

Territorial expansion will be very scarce, Wien don't want other minority to add at the already problematic situation at max some border rectification to make thing easier for them (basically Romania); money from who? Russia is in civil war, Italy will be broken and occupied in her own civil war, the British will give nothing and France has already been drained by Germany...and frankly even OTL in the end Germany had payed just a fraction of the reparation and surely not enough to compensate France.

Territorial expansion won't need to be anything other than "scarce" - Vienna didn't want much in the way of 'more', rather to hold onto what it already had. Obviously the *Poland that is created would be significant territory and allied, if not tied, to Vienna. Seems a decent gain for a definition of "very scarce". This "problematic situation" needs some explanation, as I'm not sure to what you're referring. Money from who? Romania, Italy, Serbia probably - just enough to keep them docile and to make them appear to be the "bad guys" if they don't pay. Even if it doesn't come in, it's a good reason to hold onto territory or resources in exchange.


So, Austria-Hungary will be weaker after it's won *WWI because of reasons. Got it.

 

[Black]

I think an Austrian democratic federation with a nominal king would be super cool. Like a mega Yugoslavia. Much more interesting than the collapsing empire that always happens as a cliché.

 

[Halagaz]

An earlier CP victory might have seen Austria-Hungary stay together. But in one that takes until 1918 (late 1918 at that), it's going to collapse. And it's probably going to collapse very, very soon - no need to wait for a decade.

Let's review the situation at this point:
-The Austro-Hungarian regime was never super popular to begin with. But now, it's been utterly discredited by 4 years of hardship, mismanagement, scapegoating and violent repression. Whatever respect Vienna and the Habsburg dynasty once may have enjoyed is in tatters.
-Karl is sort of trying to salvage the situation...but his ideas, measures and promises are half-assed, vague, and contradictory at best.
-Strikes and riots are popping up everywhere. So are mass desertions and outright mutinies, with greater and greater frequency. The army is half-starved, disillusioned, and infected by "Bolshevist" ideas. It's not too far from the breaking point.
-There is a countryside rebellion across the crownlands. It's massive, and constantly growing. In fact, their lack of coordination is like the only thing stopping them from personally and immediately tearing A-H apart.
-Austria's occupation zones in Ukraine and Serbia are also exploding in rebellions, which are just barely being contained.

By mid 1918, the collapse of Austria-Hungary has already started. It'll just take a little more time to be fully noticed.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

An earlier CP victory might have seen Austria-Hungary stay together. But in one that takes until 1918 (late 1918 at that), it's going to collapse. And it's probably going to collapse very, very soon - no need to wait for a decade.

Here we go again.

Let's review the situation at this point:
-The Austro-Hungarian regime was never super popular to begin with. But now, it's been utterly discredited by 4 years of hardship, mismanagement, scapegoating and violent repression. Whatever respect Vienna and the Habsburg dynasty once may have enjoyed is in tatters.

-Karl is sort of trying to salvage the situation...but his ideas, measures and promises are half-assed, vague, and contradictory at best.

Nonsense to the bolded part, but it’s popular amongst those that haven’t read up I suppose. Agreed, however, that any unpopularity that the government faced OTL was largely self-inflicted. But, and this is almost universally true, victory is a wonderful balm to public opinion. Politicians may fall, but “the regime” will receive a massive boost in popularity in the aftermath of victory.

-Strikes and riots are popping up everywhere. So are mass desertions and outright mutinies, with greater and greater frequency. The army is half-starved, disillusioned, and infected by "Bolshevist" ideas. It's not too far from the breaking point.

Interesting. I’ve read a fair bit (such as there is) on the fall of the Empire and as such have failed to find much evidence of rebellions or defections towards the end of the war. I’m thinking of a TL on a “A-H Civil War” but evidence of any “independence movements” for say, the Hungarians, are thin on the ground. Do you have a source for this assertion?

-There is a countryside rebellion across the crownlands. It's massive, and constantly growing. In fact, their lack of coordination is like the only thing stopping them from personally and immediately tearing A-H apart.
-Austria's occupation zones in Ukraine and Serbia are also exploding in rebellions, which are just barely being contained.

By mid 1918, the collapse of Austria-Hungary has already started. It'll just take a little more time to be fully noticed.

You’re referring to OTL, where A-H lost. In an ATL where A-H is on the winning side, things will be different. There will be more battlefield victories, enemies will be defeated, territory will be gained, retained or not ravaged by war.

 

[MichaelWest]

An earlier CP victory might have seen Austria-Hungary stay together. But in one that takes until 1918 (late 1918 at that), it's going to collapse. And it's probably going to collapse very, very soon - no need to wait for a decade.

Let's review the situation at this point:
-The Austro-Hungarian regime was never super popular to begin with. But now, it's been utterly discredited by 4 years of hardship, mismanagement, scapegoating and violent repression. Whatever respect Vienna and the Habsburg dynasty once may have enjoyed is in tatters.
-Karl is sort of trying to salvage the situation...but his ideas, measures and promises are half-assed, vague, and contradictory at best.
-Strikes and riots are popping up everywhere. So are mass desertions and outright mutinies, with greater and greater frequency. The army is half-starved, disillusioned, and infected by "Bolshevist" ideas. It's not too far from the breaking point.
-There is a countryside rebellion across the crownlands. It's massive, and constantly growing. In fact, their lack of coordination is like the only thing stopping them from personally and immediately tearing A-H apart.
-Austria's occupation zones in Ukraine and Serbia are also exploding in rebellions, which are just barely being contained.

By mid 1918, the collapse of Austria-Hungary has already started. It'll just take a little more time to be fully noticed.

To be honest I am not a fan of the inevitable collapse of the A-H Empire but you present a compelling argument at this stage of the war. What is your opinion in an earlier stalemated war scenario, here the premise being no entry by the USA, thus a war likely ending as early as 1916 or by fall 1917 once the Entente exhausts its ability to easily fund the war and Germany might even get an armistice to the East? This leaves only Poland and maybe Latvia/Lithuania in CP hands, so issues there on who gets to rule puppet Poland. If the war thus ends with a cease-fire and frosty armistice to the West does the A-H collapse still begin and roll forward or is there breathing room to salvage it? And what is your take on a "federalizing" of the Empire akin to Germany, a place in the upper house for the constituent "lands" and more autonomy beyond just Vienna or Budapest? Is that realistic or just wishful reading into the vague rhetoric of FF? This is my scenario, a war that either does not se Germany invade Belgium and remain strictly Franco-Russian versus CP (Italy is a maybe) or it goes like OTL but avoids the USA and widening of the war thus just Entente versus CP (Italy a maybe neutral), thus a war that manages to see the CP fight a better defensive war overall and end it as a draw. Your thoughts are appreciated.

 

[Riain]

Did AH have any Hot-button panacea issues, the way Germany had the Prussian 3 Class franchise, that if addressed will result in hefty changes and satisfy many disgruntled groups within the Empire?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prussian_three-class_franchise

 

[Nivek]

Did AH have any Hot-button panacea issues

THe USGA might be theirs..

 

[Anderman]

Did AH have any Hot-button panacea issues, the way Germany had the Prussian 3 Class franchise, that if addressed will result in hefty changes and satisfy many disgruntled groups within the Empire?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prussian_three-class_franchise

Wasn´t the right to vote in Hungary very limited to only land owners? And iirc to read here that both FF and Karl wanted at least change that ie. increase the franchise.

 

[Riain]

THe USGA might be theirs..

What's that?

 

[Nivek]

The United States of Great Austria Plan/Idea, seems FF and Karl were on and off about implementing but FF did wanted way to restrenght the empire and curtail the magyar magnates power, seems FF was the creation of a Hasburg Empire over an Austria(ie german) one.

 

[Riain]

Wasn´t the right to vote in Hungary very limited to only land owners? And iirc to read here that both FF and Karl wanted at least change that ie. increase the franchise.

I don't know, but that is certainly a far more achievable means of reforming the Empire to avoid revolution than a rapid move to Federalisation.

 

[Halagaz]

Here we go again.

Apparently.

Nonsense to the bolded part, but it’s popular amongst those that haven’t read up I suppose. Agreed, however, that any unpopularity that the government faced OTL was largely self-inflicted. But, and this is almost universally true, victory is a wonderful balm to public opinion. Politicians may fall, but “the regime” will receive a massive boost in popularity in the aftermath of victory.

Well, let's see. There's large numbers of Franz Joseph's subjects voting with their feet (7% of the Czech population, 20% of Slovaks, 15% of Croats, 20% of Bosniaks, 10% of Ukrainians...left the monarchy in the last 2-3 decades before the war).
There's the way elections worked across much of the monarchy - not just restricted and tightly controlled, but accompanied by constant army intervention and occasional murderous violence against dissident voters.
There's influential political parties (especially Czech ones) engaging in secret separatist plots.
There's a steady - and rising - trickle of terrorist attacks in the crownlands, committed by members of like 4-5 different nations.

Those are some of my arguments for why the Austro-Hungarian government was not "super popular" before the war (to use - again - the mildest possible expression).

So please expand on that charge of "nonsense".

Victory does help a lot...but there are different types of victories. And, in extreme circumstances, the beneficial effects of a victory are very limited.

Interesting. I’ve read a fair bit (such as there is) on the fall of the Empire and as such have failed to find much evidence of rebellions or defections towards the end of the war. I’m thinking of a TL on a “A-H Civil War” but evidence of any “independence movements” for say, the Hungarians, are thin on the ground. Do you have a source for this assertion?

For example, many of the mutinies and defections are mentioned in The First World War: Germany and Austria-Hungary by Holger Herwig (Chapter 9).

IIRC, he also mentions the "Green Cadres" (which is what the close to 200,000 armed rebels operating across the Austro-Hungarian countryside were called). But might not deal with them in any particular detail. One good article on that is Zelené kádry jako radikální alternativa by Jakub Beneš.

You’re referring to OTL, where A-H lost. In an ATL where A-H is on the winning side, things will be different. There will be more battlefield victories, enemies will be defeated, territory will be gained, retained or not ravaged by war.

I'm referring to events of 1918, events that started while the Central Powers were still - for all intents and purposes - winning. And long before they've actually lost. In this scenario, the war still rages on until late 1918, and most of the factors that caused these events will still be in play.

Battlefield victories? Yes, more for Germany. And relatively few - if any - for Austria-Hungary itself.
Territory gained? Austria-Hungary had occupied large swathes of territory in all directions, anyway.
Territory not ravaged? A-H did not suffer direct ravages on its territory in 1917-1918 anyway.

 

[Halagaz]

To be honest I am not a fan of the inevitable collapse of the A-H Empire but you present a compelling argument at this stage of the war. What is your opinion in an earlier stalemated war scenario, here the premise being no entry by the USA, thus a war likely ending as early as 1916 or by fall 1917 once the Entente exhausts its ability to easily fund the war and Germany might even get an armistice to the East? This leaves only Poland and maybe Latvia/Lithuania in CP hands, so issues there on who gets to rule puppet Poland. If the war thus ends with a cease-fire and frosty armistice to the West does the A-H collapse still begin and roll forward or is there breathing room to salvage it? And what is your take on a "federalizing" of the Empire akin to Germany, a place in the upper house for the constituent "lands" and more autonomy beyond just Vienna or Budapest? Is that realistic or just wishful reading into the vague rhetoric of FF? This is my scenario, a war that either does not se Germany invade Belgium and remain strictly Franco-Russian versus CP (Italy is a maybe) or it goes like OTL but avoids the USA and widening of the war thus just Entente versus CP (Italy a maybe neutral), thus a war that manages to see the CP fight a better defensive war overall and end it as a draw. Your thoughts are appreciated.

I think that, with a scenario that ends the war in 1916/mid 1917, A-H is not quite doomed. The monarchy has greatly undermined itself, but it hasn't yet started the gallop towards collapse that we see by the spring of 1918. And maybe it can even be salvaged in the longer term...though I'm kinda skeptical of that.

IMO federalization is just wishful thinking, at least in the short- and mid-term. FF was no federalist at all, and as for Karl...well, as Christopher Brennan puts it: "...despite the mythology later developed by his supporters, Karl was, prior to his fall, as unconvincing a federalist as Franz Ferdinand."
It's not completely impossible, but I don't really see it happening. Let alone in a timely and well-executed manner.