Austria-Hungary annexes Sandzak along Bosnia

Novi Pazar is annexed by Vienna. This means no Sandzak in Ottoman Hands dividing Montenegro from Serbia. Thus an alternate or no 1st Balkan War.

How likely is it for Serbia to declare war on Austria-Hungary? How does Germany and Italy see this annexation by Austria-Hungary, worse or same as OTL? What happens to the Balkan Alliance? Does Bulgaria join Serbia in the Serb conflict with Austria-Hungary?
 
Most likely, the 1st Balkan War is avoided; the Ottomans, Serbia and Montenegro enter an alliance. If and when WW1 breaks out, there's a strong chance the Ottomans will join the Entente coalition. If not, they'll certainly stay neutral.

Italy is even more pissed at Austria and could break away from the Central Powers a bit earlier or. Germany has no strong opinion on the subject and will not protest.

However, there is nothing really exceptional about the Sandzak itself; so it's still possible things play out as in OTL with no major differences.
 
A Serb-Ottoman alliance... for what? Serbia wants Bosnia, Ottomans want what?

The Ottomans could expand at Bulgaria's expense and just want to use diplomacy to focus Montenegrin and Serbian expansion towards Austria (and perhaps Bulgaria) rather than southwards.

Plus, joining the Entente in order to (a) have various unfair treaties revisited, (b) have the British abandon the Kuwaitis, and (c) declare Central Power debts null and void could work just fine.
 
A Serb-Ottoman alliance... for what? Serbia wants Bosnia, Ottomans want what?

To prevent (what looks like) an Austrian Drang Nach Osten at their expense, maybe to recover Novi Pazar. They Ottomans also considered it very important to make Bulgaria isolated and vulnerable, which is why they briefly negotiated for such an alliance even in OTL.
 
To prevent (what looks like) an Austrian Drang Nach Osten at their expense, maybe to recover Novi Pazar. They Ottomans also considered it very important to make Bulgaria isolated and vulnerable, which is why they briefly negotiated for such an alliance even in OTL.

Fair enough.

I like it so far.
 
Serbia and Montenegro allying with the Ottomans against the Austrians (and Bulgarians) means no Balkan Wars.

No Balkan Wars means no dispute over the Aegean Islands with Greece. But, without the Balkan Wars, we won't see the union of Crete with Greece. One of the things the Ottomans may be looking for in TTL's Great War could be the Great Powers looking the other way as the Ottomans reassert control over an island that they still have nominal suzerainty over. Cyprus would also be on the list. The British offered it to Greece OTL in 1915 for entry into the War, so it isn't implausible that that'd be part of the deal here.

Then there's the matter of Italy. I wonder if the Italo-Turkish War TTL goes as it did OTL. Maybe the Italians join the Central Powers in order to expand at the Ottomans' Expense.
 

Germaniac

Donor
In 1908 the Serbians mobilized and embargoed Austrian good for this exact fear. The Serbians were already infuriated over Bosnia and a move to permanently cut off Serbia from Montenegro would be more than enough for the Serbs to react with aggression.

I think its much more likely to cause a Great Powers conference om the issue, which almost happened in OTL. This could very well prevent the Italo Turkish war since the italians will demand libya in any situation where Austria takes the Sanjak.

Russia will be spurned because it will not get any assurances in the straights. Russo Austrian relations will be even more strained than OTL and they may push an more aggressive policy in the Balkans.

This would also be an even bigger blow to the Young Turks as along with Bulgarian Independence and Bosnian annexation they will lose part of Kosovo vilayet and Libya, likely leading to a weakening CUP grasp in the Parliament.
 

Germaniac

Donor
I also don't believe this would lead to a Serbo Ottoman alliance. Serbia has far more to gain from a Balkan alliance against the Ottomans, before eventually going after its real enemy, Austria.
 
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