what if Austria traded Naples for Bavaria at end of war of Spanish succession. Bavaria was occupied by Austrian army. Naples and Sicily had not land border with Austria but Bavaria had border and very close to Vienna. Bavaria is strategically threat to Austria. what is effect on Bavaria part of Austrian empire on war of Austrian succession ?
Austria is not getting Bavaria for a number of reason.
First off Bavaria is not in favor of this. Max Emanuel II has spent his life trying to expand his demense and gain a crown. This saw him marry a Sobieski and run a campaign to be elected King of Poland-Lithuania. Later he got his son nominated as heir to the Spanish throne. And after the death of his son he tried to get Austria and later France to allow him to inherit Naples and Sicily. None of these were exchanges, they were attempts to gain additions. Max Emanuel II did not want to lose his German power base, he just wanted a foreign crown.
Second off Austria does not want this. Throughout the Spanish succession crisis Austria was single mindedly pursuing the inheritance of Spain's Italian holdings. Austria refused an attempted partition treaty by France solely based off the fact that Austria was being denied the Italian holdings even though it was being offered Spain and its American empire. The reason France wanted these Italian holdings was because they were rich and populous which meant that Austria could secure a major revenue base. It also allowed Austria to deny France and its allies a foothold in Italy.
Finally no one else wants this. The Grand Alliance's whole goal is preventing either the Hapsburgs or the Bourbons from becoming too powerful. This is why the Maritime Powers were completely behind a Wittelsbach inheritance. And when they did not have that they quickly supported any partition of the Spanish Empire that ensured one family did not gain of all of that wealth and power. Austria gaining Bavaria is absolutely contradictory to this goal. It establishes Austria as not just the dominant German Catholic power, as not German Catholic state is even powerful to oppose Austria if it gains Bavaria, but the dominant German power in general. At this point Prussia is just a rising German star, not a major European power. So giving Austria Bavaria basically means Austria owns Germany. Something the British, Dutch, French, etc. do not want. Also the entire empire doesn't want this, because it makes the emperor too powerful. Thus the diet will not approve at all of this.
Well, OTL hasburg plan was giving theWittelsBach the Austrian Netherlands(what will become Belgium, i called it Belgica) as their Remplacement Seat in the HRE thus merging with Palatinate(remember that was WittelsBach elecotral seat) thus that will keep the balance and the WittelsBach will be far better defended it against france.
Wrong time period, that plan was made in the 1770s.
WittelsBach Elector of Bavaria had pressed the Emperor into exchanging Bavaria for the Kingdom of Naples and Sicily, but when this was rejected he turned to France for the realization of his ambitions.France was defeated in war of Spanish succession and Dutch and English don't care about if Austria gain Bavaria instead of Naples. Austria should understand that keep Naples is impossible because they don't have shared Border with Naples. kingdom of two Sicily is mark two south Netherlands but without south Netherlands wealth. WittelsBach of Bavaria will jumping in joy if they exchange Bavaria for Naples and it will better if Austrian exchange Prince-Bishopric of Liege and Cologne for island of Sicily. Austria know that hostile Bavaria is lethal threat to Vienna. Austria know that kingdom of Naples is difficult to defend and Sicily only defend is English fleet. treaty of Utrecht is engineered in a way that with only help of English and Dutch can Austrian defend south Netherlands and Kingdom Naples and Sicily. Austrian power only don't have capability defend south Netherlands and Naples and Sicily but Austrian can defend Bavaria without help
The Wittelsbcach's were not interested in abandoning Bavaria, they wanted a crown. They looked for this first in Poland Lithuania and later in Spain and finally in Sicilies. The Wittelsbachs were not interested in exchanging Bavaria for Naples, they wanted Naples on top of having Bavaria. And Max Emanuel will not leap with joy after giving up Bavaria. Bavaria is a powerful electorate, not some minor German duchy. Which is why Max Emanuel's goal was always to add to his demense, not exchange. Also giivng up Liege and Cologne is not in Wittelsbach interests, they literally went to war to assure that the Wittelsbachs controlled Cologne, which is also an electorate. And Austria does not know that Bavaria is a threat to Vienna, alliances were extremely fluid in the 18th century. Further Austria definitely does not know about those problems with Italy. Something you witness with the fact that they mindlessly pursued acquiring those rich Italian holdings. Honestly it is unlikely that either side would take this deal. Bavaria loses its German power base and Austria loses the riches of Italy. Not to mention that this deal is contrary to the policies of both countries at this time.
Not sure that they would be allowed to keep Bavaria too (it would be also rather unmanageable as a state, even in a loose personal union).
The Habsburg would consolidate their hold on Catholic Southern Germany, this can in time lead to a very different German dualism. A more compact Austria would likely be stronger and this might already cause divergences in the XVIII century wars against Prussia. (No Charles of Bavaria contesting the Pragmatic Sanction will already cause huge butterflies).
A consequence would also likely be no Charles VII as Holy Roman Emperor. Instead he could marry into an Italian ruling house, maybe the Wittelsbach could end up inheriting Parma or Tuscany.
The only problem here is: who would get Bavaria's Electoral Vote?
Why would they not be allowed to keep Bavaria. If Bavaria gains Naples and Sicily through n alternate Spanish Succession there will be no question about them holding Bavaria, but about them holding those Italian holdings. If Bavaria gains Naples and Italy from an alternate War then they are being awarded with Naples and Sicily. And as to an exchange its simply implausible.
Another possibility is for a further slice of Belgium - perhaps Luxemburg and part of the Bishopric of Liege - to be given to Prussia, in order to buy her acquiescence in Austria's annexation of Bavaria.
The Elector Palatine might be similarly bought off by returning him the Upper Palatinate which had been lost in the Thirty Years War.
There is not mediatisation right now, the Emperor would never gett he diet to approve him giving away parts of Liege to Prussia. Also Liege is not enough to convince Prussia that giving Austria a huge swath of Catholic German land is a good idea. \
No, not at all. Replacing Bavaria with a behemoth Austria is not at all in Palatine's interests.
I keep wondering why would Austria give the princes anything? I mean I understand that they'd want something but why give them anything. For example, in exchange for participation in the War of Spanish succession the Brandenburg elector was recognised as the King in Prussia (regardless of the outcome, dude already got paid).
I understand that say if Austria kept Bavaria the Palatine may argue for the upper Palatine but why couldn't Austria argue that they're getting their electoral vote back completely (maybe some amount of money to compensate them for their claims) and that'd be it. After the mess of the 30 years war + the ongoing war itself, they may be related but I hardly see them wanting more Wittlesbachs close to the core powerbase if their being pragmatic and taking Bavaria instead.
Say the Bavarian elector gets the kingdom of Sicily he gets his king title, Piedmont gets Sardinia + Presidi (gets a king title, though poorer but more defendable). What exactly are the princes asking for? Only possible compensation would be in Alsace possibly?
Only issue is the balance of power argument but here we've exchanged slightly more power in Italy for slightly more power in Germany. And as we've seen in the thirty years war the princes always have outside help if push comes to shove.
For one because without the princes Austria can't do anything, because as a result of the Thirty Years' War the Emperor can't do anything without the approval of the diet, in which the princes hold a massive amount of sway. For two because Austria needs the princes' armies, so they throw money at the minor princes and titles and land at the major princes.
Because the Holy Roman Empire is not a true empire with Austria in complete control. Instead it is a fragile collection of states built off a strict set of laws which basically say that Austria can't act without the approval of the princes.
Why would a major electoral power like Bavaria be less of threat than a massive Austrian realm that has just annexed its biggest Catholic rival.