Austria defeats Prussia: What of France?

Had Austria defeated Prussia in the Austro-Prussian War, what would France have made of the situation?

OTL as Prussia defeated Austria, France pushed diplomatically for the Palatinate and Luxembourg. How might France take advantage of a Prussian defeat?

Austria wouldn't be able to exert the diplomatic force against France that Prussia historically did in, say, 1867 during the OTL Luxembourg Crisis.

France mediated the peace of Prague OTL. I imagine the French would be mediating the peace TTL, and I can't help but think they would push to gain lands along the Rhine - potentially even go to war perhaps.

What about Hohenzollern Spain? Would France be as opposed to the idea TTL?
 
OTL as Prussia defeated Austria, France pushed diplomatically for the Palatinate and Luxembourg. How might France take advantage of a Prussian defeat?

The Palatinate might fly, but Britain is a bit... touchy about French ambitions in the Low Counteries, and Napoleon III has been trying to stay on their good side. He'd have to dance around things carefully to make gains, and ALOT depends on just how much of a defeat Austria issues and how much they want to try to disrupt the Balance of Power in the Confederation. Fundimentally, there's only so much Austria can do at the moment to roll back Prussia's overwhelming economic hegemony over most of the Germanies even if they try to make political changes, and anything big enough to really turn the race for hegemony back in their favor would require the consent of all the other Greaet Powers.

Of course, there are a few things they will certainly get. Firstly, the Prussian declaration declaring the Confederation "Dissolved" will be definitively shot down, as its membershift have successfully defended their legitimacy on the battlefield. Austria will also be able to undo the unilaterial annexation of Slesvig-Holstein into Prussia Proper; likely restoring the Duchies as independent states within the Confederation as a hedge in the north. Likely several of the minor principalities who sided with Prussia will be receiving new pro-Habsburg governments, and minor territorial concenssions to create territorial integrity for the pro-Habsburg states at Prussian expense (Hannover in particular comes to mind) seems likely. Then, of course, Italy gets nothing either: not only did their allies lose but they got their behind handed to them, and may be compelled to drop claims on Veneto or aknowledge the legitimate sovereignty of the Pope over Rome. Anything more will require a Congress of all the powers to sort out some kind of settlement acceptable to all their interests and not overly disruptive to the European harmony.

What about Hohenzollern Spain? Would France be as opposed to the idea TTL?

I'm not entirely sure this would even be a thing, given that Bismarkian politiking woulden't be able to reach that far without a solid hegemony over Germany and the Sigmaringen lands, given their geographic location, would strike me as one of the first territories on the chopping block in an Austrian victory. While France would certainly be more accepting to the idea if it came up, France would still be in favor of virtually any of the other major candidates.
 
If Austria beats Prussia, does it also beat Italy at the same time? If it does, then it probably keeps Venetia. Meanwhile, France probably doesn't vacate Lazio.
 
Expectation: A Rhineland principality is carved out of Prussia that France can influence economically.

Reality: The Rhineland would prefer keep trading with the rest of Germany rather than with France.
 
Austria gets Silesia as compensation for giving up Venice.

Prussia loses her Rhenish Provinces. Both France and Austria agree on that. They may disagree, however, as to the disposition of the area. Austria would like to carve out new states for the deposed GDs of Tuscany and Modena. France might prefer thhe area just shared out among the middling States like Bavaria and Hanover. However, the RPs are big enough to do both at a pinch.

Saxony goes back to its pre-Vienna borders. The Duke of Augustenburg gets S/H, less any bits of North Schleswig that go back to Denmark.
 
I agree with the idea that there is very little Austria can do after her victory to diminish Prussia. Restore the Confederation and give S-H to the Duke of Augistenburg? Yes. A favorable economic treaty? Yes. Taking Silesia and the Rhineland? No. And they lose Venetia. That was the price of French neutrality.

But Prussian led consolidation of Germany is discredited. Maybe German nationalism peters out and something else becomes fashionable. Socialism?
 
I agree with the idea that there is very little Austria can do after her victory to diminish Prussia. Restore the Confederation and give S-H to the Duke of Augistenburg? Yes. A favorable economic treaty? Yes. Taking Silesia and the Rhineland? No. And they lose Venetia. That was the price of French neutrality.

But Prussian led consolidation of Germany is discredited. Maybe German nationalism peters out and something else becomes fashionable. Socialism?
Austria can take back Silesia and can give Rhineland to another ruler as they had a very good claim on Silesia and Rhineland was given to Prussia only at the Congress of Vienna
 
Well, if Austria defeats Prussia, then I expect that the French offer to buy Luxembourg that was OTL accepted by the King of the Netherlands on 23 March 1867 is going to go through. OTL, it was only stopped by the opposition of Prussia. A defeated Prussia will not be able to do that ITTL.

Regarding the Palatinate/Rhineland:
I think the Palatinate was a district of the Kingdom of Bavaria at the time. Bavaria being likely aligned with Austria ITTL, it seems unlikely that France will get something from them in case of Austrian victory. Except if exchanged with something else.

On the other hand, some part of the Prussian Rhineland could be taken by France. I think here mostly about Saarland, which has been an objective of France for a long time (Louis XIV founded Saarlouis).
You could add to that the small bit between Saarland and Luxembourg (including Trier/Trêves or not). Another small bit could be the part of the old Duchy of Luxembourg that was given to Prussia in 1815 (Bitburg, Neuerburg, Sankt Vith).

I think those changes are small enough to not have the British freak out, which was one of Nap III only consistent foreign policy objective, and on the other hand, sill be a significant net gain for France, with the coal deposists in the Saarland, and the strategic fortress of Luxembourg (and maybe Bitbourg as well in the best case scenario).
The winning Austrian won't be pleased, but this is also a small enough change that the balance of power won't be broken, even more so if they gains are significant as well (Austrian-aligned Southern German confederation and return of Silesia for example).

TL;DR
France should go for Saarland, Luxembourg (as OTL) and maybe the bits in between (Trier/Trêves). Not much more, but not much less either. It's a free win.
 
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