Austria collapses during the 1848 rebellion

I've seen enough (can the) Ottoman collapse topics. Time for a different one.

How plausible is it for the Austrians to collapse during the 1848 revolution?

If they do collapse, what is the reaction of great powers? (UK, France, Prussia, Russia, Ottoman...)
 
Very possible. The Hungarian Revolution was only really put down because of Russian involvement and Budapest's inability to placate non Magyars.

Keep the Russians out somehow and have luck go against Austria and Hungary can indeed breakaway and even Italy can get out of hand with the risings in Milan and Sardinian involvement.

As for foreign reaction? France was a republic at this time so positive from them (might play a role in Italy?). Britain concerned about the balance of power may seek to prevent Russia/Prussia from exploiting the Austrian collapse.
 
I've seen enough (can the) Ottoman collapse topics. Time for a different one.

How plausible is it for the Austrians to collapse during the 1848 revolution?

Depends what Prussia does.

If she decides to fight for the headship of Germany, Koniggratz may come 18 years early, in which case Austria could indeed collapse. Failing that it probably can't happen. As most of the peasant soldiers continued to obey their officers, once the government recovered its nerve it was always likely to win, though Hungary might have held out longer w/o Russian intervention.
 
For a surefire PoD, you could have Josip Jelacic, Ban of Croatia, decide to declare for Croatian independence rather than stay loyal to the Habsburgs.
 

raharris1973

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If she decides to fight for the headship of Germany, Koniggratz may come 18 years early, in which case Austria could indeed collapse.

How did Prussian armed strength compare with Austria's? Haven't you said in the past that Prussia was the weaker party all the way until the 1860s, only getting its act together after the failed mobilization of 1859?

Mike, Speaking of topics German, I've included them in a few ASB scenarios I would like to see your take on:

1) 14 years back - early 1927 Weimar Germany is ISOT'ed to early 1913 Europe

2) ASB retorts to Bismarck when he disses Africa.

3) Germany goes to Argentina (and vice versa) in 1880- what ensues?
 

raharris1973

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....and it ends here?

I thought there were more Prussia and Austria enthusiastic about.
 
How did Prussian armed strength compare with Austria's? Haven't you said in the past that Prussia was the weaker party all the way until the 1860s, only getting its act together after the failed mobilization of 1859?

OTL yes. Here, I envisaged a Prussian attack while Austrian forces are tied up in Hungary and Italy, so that 1848 and 1866 coincide. That would probably more than compensate for any deficiencies in the Prussian Army.


Interesting. I'll have to have a think about them.
 
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I think the aftermath of a successful hungarian revolution would be , most obviously, an Austria within the eventual German empire .

Hungary would likely become a parliamentary monarchy , The first "apostolic king of Hungary" would be an executive head of state , future kings are not likely to have the confidence of the parliament. In the crimean war hungary would declare war on Russia and gain moldova and the romanian principalities ,this would mean access to romanian oil fields a shore line on the black sea and the adriatic . Romanians and croats would have autonomy within the " Lands of the holy hungarian crown of st.Stephen". :D

Austria would enter the Prussian dominated German empire ,and it would consist of Bohemia and more importantly Veneto .
 
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Lets say Hungary secedes successfully. This will be a Hungary led by Kossuth - a very liberal Hungary. Kossuth also sought reconciliation with the nationalistic leaders in 1849. I think we will end up with a Hungary much more friendly to its national minorities than OTL. A Kossuth led Hungary is a very interesting POD.

Also Hungary will secede without Croatia which will either remain a part of Austria or gets independent. However as the hungarian revolutionary war really started with the Croatian attack on Hungary a POD with Croatian independence might mean butterflies here as well. If Croatia goes for independence they wont attack Hungary and the Hungarian-Austrian fighting from that point on is butterflied. We could try to avoid it altogether but it can simply start later.

Also, Hungary wont go conquering the Romanian principalities - not under Kossuth.
 
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In OTL veneto was forfeit by the Habsburgs to Napoleon III `s France who gave it to the House of Savoy

In TTL The Habsburgs would be effectively reduced to a small power , with german nationalism dominant in Austria i think Prussia would exploit this and strengthen economic and political ties between Austria and the rest of the german world ,thus an austro-prussian war is not likely .
An Austro-Italian ( Kingdom of Sardinia +Central italy) war could happen like in our timeline but with Prussia(+ some/all German states) on the side of Austria versus France( nap 3) ,Sardinia and Central Italy .
The german coalition would win and Italy would not come in to being , But Germany would and stronger and earlier than OTL
Even if this conflict over Veneto is just isolated between Austria and Northern italy , the long-term result would be the same:
NO ITALY AND LARGER GERMANY .
 
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