Australian Third Party Victory

[BlackMage]

Australia has had probably the most stable two-party system in the world since 1909; bar the Country Party, which has effectively been in coalition with the Liberals for its entire existence, Australian politics has been dominated by the Labor Party and the Coalition for 80 years, and probably closer to 100. The same applies to the states, with the exception of Queensland (where the order of Lib and Nat is reversed). Throughout this time, no minor party has ever had more role than that of a spoiler, or holding the balance of power in the Senate.

But did it have to be this way? Is there any possible POD which can result in a non-Labor or non-Liberal (assuming that the Liberals have remained pretty much the same party, organisationally, since 1909, despite name changes) PM?

 

[MarkA]

Post 1900 is essentially post Federation.

Labor by this time was here to stay. The various disguises that the conservatives have adopted since then are moot since a conservative political force will emerge under some name or other.

Where is the room for a third party on the spectrum? Labor has always been a broad church in accepting both the socialist and what we would now call the aspirational working class vote. The conservatives have always been the representatives of small l liberals who are not supporters of working class aspirations and the hard core conservative electorate.

 

[BlackMage]

Post 1900 is essentially post Federation.

Labor by this time was here to stay. The various disguises that the conservatives have adopted since then are moot since a conservative political force will emerge under some name or other.

Where is the room for a third party on the spectrum? Labor has always been a broad church in accepting both the socialist and what we would now call the aspirational working class vote. The conservatives have always been the representatives of small l liberals who are not supporters of working class aspirations and the hard core conservative electorate.

Well, One Nation got 23% of the vote in Queensland, so there's room for a populist nationalist party. A social liberal party (a New Protectionists) could arise any time in the last quarter century, and an economic liberal party (a New Free Traders) could arise any time before that. An actual left-wing party could have arisen after Labor went free marketeering in the 80s. And, of course, there's always Christian Democracy. So I think there's definitely room for a successful third party.

 

[LacheyS]

Maybe if Senator Janine Haines had won the Division of Kingston in the March 1990 election. That might require a POD of Prime Minister Hawke not using the foreign affairs power to save the Franklin River.

 

[BlackMage]

Maybe if Senator Janine Haines had won the Division of Kingston in the March 1990 election. That might require a POD of Prime Minister Hawke not using the foreign affairs power to save the Franklin River.

How? Sure, the Democrats would have had a House of Reps seat, but even the Greens had one from 2002 to 2004 (in a byelection under Crean, admittedly). I suppose if Hawke or Keating does a bit worse they could need to put her into a coalition, which would definitely be a start towards the Democrats becoming a more successful third force.

If that had happened, would the Democrats have gone so completely up in flames as they have?