If they had stayed with Downer, I believe the Liberals will have won the 1996 election, just not as overwhelmingly.
Downer was personally unpopular; much more than his party . We have elected a government with an unpopular leader before. Howard himself has a -23 net satisfaction rating going into the 1996 election.
Looking back at old Newspolls, during the time he was leader the Coalition averaged 45.3% for primary voting intention compared to 43.1% for the ALP.
The Democrats were averaging 6.1%, with their preferences splitting 55-45 to the ALP.
This leaves 5.3% ‘Others’, of which approximately 2.5% of this Greens, which split approximately 70-30 to the ALP. The remaining was minor right-wing parties which split 70-30 to the Coalition.
This very rough 2PP shows Downer averaging 50.81% during his spell as opposition leader from May 1994 to January 1995.
There were several events in the aftermath of his tenure up until the election, that I believe would have widened this lead.
- Labor suffered a 16% swig in 2PP at the March 1995 Canberra by-election.
- The near loss at the QLD state election and then the loss of a seat in a by-election, forcing Labor into minority government.
- Labor being in government for 13 years and the ‘it’s time’ factor.
On the other hand, Keating would be probably destroying Downer in QT every day. So it may have all balanced out.
The focus was on economic performance and as 1995 ended with a rise in unemployment and a five-year peak in inflation, Keating was not looking so good.
Still it would be a squeaker. Assuming Downer’s average holds, on a win of 50.81% 2PP, assuming uniform swing, the coalition would gain a very slim majority. It’s important to note that Labor held a lot of marginal seats going into the 1996 election.
Here are the seat changes;-
ALP to Liberal (12) - Gilmore, MacArthur, Macquarie, Leichhardt, Moreton, Petrie, Kingston, Bass, McEwan, McMillan, Canning, Swan.
ALP to National (2) – Page, Richmond
Ind to Liberal (1) – North Sydney
Liberal to ALP (1) – Canberra
ALP to Ind (2) – Calare, Kalgoolie
Liberal to Ind (2) – Moore, Curtin
Ind to ALP (1) – Wills
National to Liberal (1) - Murray
Which has the make up of the 1996 parliament as follows (OTL in brackets).
Coalition 77 (94)
- Liberal 60 (75)
- National 17 (18)
- Country Liberal 0 (1)
Labour 66 (49)
Independents 4 (5)
Adding one more percentage to the Coalition would have netted them another 4 seats from Labor.
Downer Government
A Downer government would focus on business deregulation, reforms to capital gains. There won’t be any tax cuts in this term, Howard did not introduce tax cuts until FY2000-2001.
IR reform would be much the same and I suspect we would have the same level of unrest. Howard was the shadow IR minister in Downer's shadow cabinet.
Gun control would not be as strong. There would be a push for the various bans we had enacted after the Port Arthur Massacre, but Downer is faced with a National party that has a higher proportion of seats in the Coalition than Howard had. In fact, Howard won enough in 1996 to govern without the Nationals, Downer would not be in this position.
The stronger National presence will also have an effect on the government’s response to the Wik ruling.
I don’t believe Downer would equivocate on condemning Hanson early. Early condemnation from Downer ensures that Hanson does not win in the Division of Oxley. She spends time as a perennial candidate in council and state elections in QLD, a female Bill Heslop.
Graeme Campbell takes up the mantle of the maverick populist politician. An Arthur Calwell throwback, Campbell is not as shrill as Hanson. Campbellism is much the same as Hansonism, but with a touch more blue collar appeal and obviously stronger in WA and a little weaker in QLD. He forms the Australia First Party which has a little more success in the Senate next election. Downer does not co-opt Campbell’s policies, which gives his anti-establishment credentials a boost.
There would be no GST, not with such a slim majority. The government would have to take it to the next election. This will have knock on effect for the Democrats.
Support for a republic will keep building, but without Howard’s fix, the issue will be ignored by the Downer government as a third-order issue. Labor will announce their support for a Yes/No election if they win the next election.
Downer does not go to the polls early and the election is held in early March 1999. He loses.
Kim Beazley become PM.
Australia First gains 2 senators, Senator Eric Nagle of QLD and Senator John Fischer of WA. Pauline Hanson is not successful having been relegated to number 4 on the QLD Australia First ticket.
A referendum for the republic held in early 2000 results in a yes vote with 54% of the vote and majority of states voting yes (NSW, VIC, SA & WA).
Australia becomes a republic on 1st of January 2001, on the 100 year anniversary of Federation.