Cook
Banned
This seems like the most plausible scenario so far, although without knowing more I can't say how likely it is.
Given the anti internal migration violence in Borneo and ethnic violence in Ambon and West Irian Jaya (West Papua) and religious separatists in Aceh Province and the general lack of confidence in the long term expressed by many Indonesians prior to SBY becoming president I’d say it had even odds.
If Habibie had been president longer it would have had better than even odds.
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