Grey Wolf
Donor
I also haven't fleshed out the exact timings of events, suffice to say we are talking a gathering crisis from the Summer of 1916 to early 1917. I have slightly changed the death dates of some individuals, mainly because their OTL deaths can be attributed to the stresses of the war, or in my opinion the boost that the war gave to determination and thus longevity. The new dates do not greatly alter things, they just are.
The POD unsurprisingly is that on that Sunday afternoon in late June 1914 the driver of Archduke Franz Ferdinand's car does not attempt to turn round and in so doing provide Princip with a target. The result is that the world learns of the attempted assassination of Franz Ferdinand by someone other than Princip (the chap who tried and failed earlier in the day), and the milder level of Austrian outrage is sufficient for Serbia to reign in its most extreme elements in the period immediately afterwards.
Thus 1914-1916 is mainly characterised by four events on the world stage
- Albania
- China
- Ireland
- Mexico
These will be touched upon in more detail in what follows, but to skip forwards to the events of Summer 1916 and the descent into crisis...
Summer 1916, Franz Josef, Emperor of Austria and King of Hungary dies of old age. He is succeeded by Franz Ferdinand who, as I recall reading, was simply going to have himself crowned as Franz (Francis) and would thus be Franz II if I got that right. There are immediate problems with Hungary. Franz Ferdinand has spent 1914-1916 outlining and fleshing out his plans for a federal empire, growing more certain after his close shave in Sarajevo that Bosnia needs to be a self-ruling kingdom within it. This is something to which the Hungarians are bitterly opposed. Negotiations stall, he is crowned emperor of Austria but the coronation for the crown of Saint Stephen is repeatedly delayed. Positions harden, Count Tisza is forced out of office as Premier of Hungary and replaced by a coalition of more extreme nationalists. With the Ausgleich up for renewal in 1917 both sides refuse to compromise.
The crisis within the empire begins to have affects elsewhere. In Bosnia, Serb nationalists set up an unofficial assembly to run parallel to the official institution. Franz Ferdinand is leery of using force to shut it down as such parliamentary spirit would be useful in the federal empire he envisages. Nevertheless he clamps down on its activities and newspapers, fuelling an undercurrent of dis-satisfaction.
There are also moves in Trieste and Fiume to establish Italian conventions of a similar ilk. These Franz Ferdiand represses ruthlessly, much to the anger of the Kingdom of Italy, and alarm of the German Empire.
By way of filling in the back story, it is pertinent to look at Ireland and Albania at this juncture as they impact at this point. Ireland in the Summer of 1914 headed into a rapidly more-complicated and more dangerous crisis as Asquith's government attempted to clamp down on the armed Unionists and faced growing dissent within the army, at the same time as the Irish nationalists were also arming as a counter to the Orangemen. With clashes breaking out, and incidents of army mutiny reported throughout late 1914, in January 1915 Asquith faces and loses a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons. In the subsequent election, Bonar Law's Conservatives sweep to power, and with Unionist backing reverse the trend of policy. It is too late to put a stop to events, but Bonar Law's government is identified with the Unionist cause and the troubles in Ireland become more clear-cut, although no less severe as armed insurrection among nationalist bodies breaks out. A low-level civil war, martial law and constant minor acts of sabotage characterise the years 1915-1916.
With regard to Albania, William of Wied appeals to the guarantor powers in the Autumn of 1914, and with Britain completely distracted, Austria and Italy move in, forging between them an agreement of sorts. Italy gets a defined zone of control, whilst Austrian forces officially support the King in the civil war that spreads in the East and South. Relations between Italy and Austria remain tense, but with the German Empire harrying both of them things remain peaceful if not cordial.
In other events, the German Empire has strengthened and deepened its relationship with the Ottoman Empire, brought about a Greco-Ottoman rapprochement of sorts, and drawn Bulgaria more towards Berlin than Paris.
These events of the last couple of years affect how the interplay of powers and rivalries develop during later 1916 and into 1917.
A variety of factors leads to the decision of the Hungarian Parliament in March 1917 to declare Hungary's independence.
In Sarajevo this is immediately followed by the Bosnian Serb unofficial assembly voting on a resolution to call for annexation by Serbia.
Italy engineers similar votes in Trieste and Fiume, though they have far less legitimacy.
The Hungarians are faced with an Austrian mobilisation. Taking direct control of the Honved units, they never-the-less lack heavy artillery (deliberate Habsburg policy), and get what they can by seizing the common army depots. Reserves and volunteer units are hastily called up, but they are facing a difficult task against a fully-mobilised Austrian army under a determined Franz II Ferdinand.
In consequence, the Hungarians agree to make a devil's pact and request Russian help. Hungary itself has no contiguous border with Russia, the Russian border being with Galicia, the Bukovina or with Rumanian Moldavia.
Rumania is ruled by King Ferdinand, and has grown closer to Russia since his accession and the betrothal of his son Carol to one of the Russian Grand Duchesses. With the break-up of the Habsburg empire appearing imminent, Ferdinand reveals the existence of the secret Austro-Rumanian treaty of alliance, and announces that he no longer considers it binding or relevant in today's world.
With Serbia intervening directly in Bosnia-Hercegovina, and with Greece making moves into Albania, Nicholas II is adamant that Russia is simply not going to sit on the sidelines. This becomes increasingly strong a feeling when Bulgaria and Greece begin to move against Serbia, and Franz II Ferdinand begins to move against Hungary.
Intially moving through Moldavia, Russian units enter Hungary as 'advisors'. King Ferdinand does a secret deal with Nicholas II, getting Russian support for Rumania's claims to Transylvania. This of course is not mentioned to Budapest! In addition, Rumania allows Russian units permission to pass across its territory to Bulgaria/Serbia should it become necessary.
Franz II Ferdinand demands the removal of Russian advisors from Hungary, but they are already being deployed in the frontline. Meeting with the Kaiser, he gets German assurances that the German Empire will back Austria in its fight for survival.
Bulgaria completes mobilisation and launches a joint attack on Serbia together with Greek units. Russia issues an ultimatum and begins to send army units through Rumania, initially into Serbia but increasingly to the Bulgarian border.
Faced with the prospect of Russian forces on its European border, should they over-run Bulgaria, the Ottoman Empire mobilises.
As Franz II Ferdinand begins the attack on Hungary, Budapest requests more Russian aid. Seeing the Hungarian border forces beginning to waiver, Nicholas II is under intense pressure to do something. He sends troops into the Bukovina intending to put pressure on Austria to withdraw from Hungary.
Franz II Ferdinand issues an ultimatum to Russia to withdraw from Austrian crown territory. As direct fighting occurs in the Balkans between Russian units and the Bulgarians, the crisis deepens across Europe. Germany mobilises in support of Austria, whilst Italy mobilises for a position of 'armed readiness'. With France mobilising in turn against Germany, the wheels for a general European war are in motion.
Grey Wolf
The POD unsurprisingly is that on that Sunday afternoon in late June 1914 the driver of Archduke Franz Ferdinand's car does not attempt to turn round and in so doing provide Princip with a target. The result is that the world learns of the attempted assassination of Franz Ferdinand by someone other than Princip (the chap who tried and failed earlier in the day), and the milder level of Austrian outrage is sufficient for Serbia to reign in its most extreme elements in the period immediately afterwards.
Thus 1914-1916 is mainly characterised by four events on the world stage
- Albania
- China
- Ireland
- Mexico
These will be touched upon in more detail in what follows, but to skip forwards to the events of Summer 1916 and the descent into crisis...
Summer 1916, Franz Josef, Emperor of Austria and King of Hungary dies of old age. He is succeeded by Franz Ferdinand who, as I recall reading, was simply going to have himself crowned as Franz (Francis) and would thus be Franz II if I got that right. There are immediate problems with Hungary. Franz Ferdinand has spent 1914-1916 outlining and fleshing out his plans for a federal empire, growing more certain after his close shave in Sarajevo that Bosnia needs to be a self-ruling kingdom within it. This is something to which the Hungarians are bitterly opposed. Negotiations stall, he is crowned emperor of Austria but the coronation for the crown of Saint Stephen is repeatedly delayed. Positions harden, Count Tisza is forced out of office as Premier of Hungary and replaced by a coalition of more extreme nationalists. With the Ausgleich up for renewal in 1917 both sides refuse to compromise.
The crisis within the empire begins to have affects elsewhere. In Bosnia, Serb nationalists set up an unofficial assembly to run parallel to the official institution. Franz Ferdinand is leery of using force to shut it down as such parliamentary spirit would be useful in the federal empire he envisages. Nevertheless he clamps down on its activities and newspapers, fuelling an undercurrent of dis-satisfaction.
There are also moves in Trieste and Fiume to establish Italian conventions of a similar ilk. These Franz Ferdiand represses ruthlessly, much to the anger of the Kingdom of Italy, and alarm of the German Empire.
By way of filling in the back story, it is pertinent to look at Ireland and Albania at this juncture as they impact at this point. Ireland in the Summer of 1914 headed into a rapidly more-complicated and more dangerous crisis as Asquith's government attempted to clamp down on the armed Unionists and faced growing dissent within the army, at the same time as the Irish nationalists were also arming as a counter to the Orangemen. With clashes breaking out, and incidents of army mutiny reported throughout late 1914, in January 1915 Asquith faces and loses a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons. In the subsequent election, Bonar Law's Conservatives sweep to power, and with Unionist backing reverse the trend of policy. It is too late to put a stop to events, but Bonar Law's government is identified with the Unionist cause and the troubles in Ireland become more clear-cut, although no less severe as armed insurrection among nationalist bodies breaks out. A low-level civil war, martial law and constant minor acts of sabotage characterise the years 1915-1916.
With regard to Albania, William of Wied appeals to the guarantor powers in the Autumn of 1914, and with Britain completely distracted, Austria and Italy move in, forging between them an agreement of sorts. Italy gets a defined zone of control, whilst Austrian forces officially support the King in the civil war that spreads in the East and South. Relations between Italy and Austria remain tense, but with the German Empire harrying both of them things remain peaceful if not cordial.
In other events, the German Empire has strengthened and deepened its relationship with the Ottoman Empire, brought about a Greco-Ottoman rapprochement of sorts, and drawn Bulgaria more towards Berlin than Paris.
These events of the last couple of years affect how the interplay of powers and rivalries develop during later 1916 and into 1917.
A variety of factors leads to the decision of the Hungarian Parliament in March 1917 to declare Hungary's independence.
In Sarajevo this is immediately followed by the Bosnian Serb unofficial assembly voting on a resolution to call for annexation by Serbia.
Italy engineers similar votes in Trieste and Fiume, though they have far less legitimacy.
The Hungarians are faced with an Austrian mobilisation. Taking direct control of the Honved units, they never-the-less lack heavy artillery (deliberate Habsburg policy), and get what they can by seizing the common army depots. Reserves and volunteer units are hastily called up, but they are facing a difficult task against a fully-mobilised Austrian army under a determined Franz II Ferdinand.
In consequence, the Hungarians agree to make a devil's pact and request Russian help. Hungary itself has no contiguous border with Russia, the Russian border being with Galicia, the Bukovina or with Rumanian Moldavia.
Rumania is ruled by King Ferdinand, and has grown closer to Russia since his accession and the betrothal of his son Carol to one of the Russian Grand Duchesses. With the break-up of the Habsburg empire appearing imminent, Ferdinand reveals the existence of the secret Austro-Rumanian treaty of alliance, and announces that he no longer considers it binding or relevant in today's world.
With Serbia intervening directly in Bosnia-Hercegovina, and with Greece making moves into Albania, Nicholas II is adamant that Russia is simply not going to sit on the sidelines. This becomes increasingly strong a feeling when Bulgaria and Greece begin to move against Serbia, and Franz II Ferdinand begins to move against Hungary.
Intially moving through Moldavia, Russian units enter Hungary as 'advisors'. King Ferdinand does a secret deal with Nicholas II, getting Russian support for Rumania's claims to Transylvania. This of course is not mentioned to Budapest! In addition, Rumania allows Russian units permission to pass across its territory to Bulgaria/Serbia should it become necessary.
Franz II Ferdinand demands the removal of Russian advisors from Hungary, but they are already being deployed in the frontline. Meeting with the Kaiser, he gets German assurances that the German Empire will back Austria in its fight for survival.
Bulgaria completes mobilisation and launches a joint attack on Serbia together with Greek units. Russia issues an ultimatum and begins to send army units through Rumania, initially into Serbia but increasingly to the Bulgarian border.
Faced with the prospect of Russian forces on its European border, should they over-run Bulgaria, the Ottoman Empire mobilises.
As Franz II Ferdinand begins the attack on Hungary, Budapest requests more Russian aid. Seeing the Hungarian border forces beginning to waiver, Nicholas II is under intense pressure to do something. He sends troops into the Bukovina intending to put pressure on Austria to withdraw from Hungary.
Franz II Ferdinand issues an ultimatum to Russia to withdraw from Austrian crown territory. As direct fighting occurs in the Balkans between Russian units and the Bulgarians, the crisis deepens across Europe. Germany mobilises in support of Austria, whilst Italy mobilises for a position of 'armed readiness'. With France mobilising in turn against Germany, the wheels for a general European war are in motion.
Grey Wolf