August 1991 Coup Succeeds = WWIII?

Like it says on the tin. Could a successful August Coup, assuming the USSR does not collapse more violently before that, eventually push the hardliners to start WWIII?

Hopefully not. But still, I am just asking for fun. :p
 
Like it says on the tin. Could a successful August Coup, assuming the USSR does not collapse more violently before that, eventually push the hardliners to start WWIII?

Hopefully not. But still, I am just asking for fun. :p

This late in the game, highly unlikely. The focus would likely be on domestic issues, at least initially - securing the stability of the regime, cracking down on rival factions, seperatists in the SSRs, etc. While there are still large amounts of Soviet troops in Eastern Europe, they have suddenly found themselves in the middle of unfriendly territory and would likely be attacked by their former Warsaw Pact comrades if they tried to start anything. In the future, a Soviet attack on Eastern Europe or on Iran would still be a possibility.

You might have a greater chance if the coup is launched in, say, 1988 - 1989 and the hardliners try to launch a crackdown in Eastern Europe that spirals out of control
 
This late in the game, highly unlikely. The focus would likely be on domestic issues, at least initially - securing the stability of the regime, cracking down on rival factions, seperatists in the SSRs, etc. While there are still large amounts of Soviet troops in Eastern Europe, they have suddenly found themselves in the middle of unfriendly territory and would likely be attacked by their former Warsaw Pact comrades if they tried to start anything. In the future, a Soviet attack on Eastern Europe or on Iran would still be a possibility.

You might have a greater chance if the coup is launched in, say, 1988 - 1989 and the hardliners try to launch a crackdown in Eastern Europe that spirals out of control

What would be the exact borders of a post-coup Soviet Union, though? I imagine that at least the Baltic states would be able to successfully assert their independence.
 
What would be the exact borders of a post-coup Soviet Union, though? I imagine that at least the Baltic states would be able to successfully assert their independence.

Which is one thing I was wondering as a possible WWIII flashpoint in this timeline. :p
 
What would be the exact borders of a post-coup Soviet Union, though? I imagine that at least the Baltic states would be able to successfully assert their independence.

Checking the Wiki page it says that the coup held the support of Azerbaijan, Belarus, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. They also had the support of Transnistria, but thats not very important.
 
What would be the exact borders of a post-coup Soviet Union, though? I imagine that at least the Baltic states would be able to successfully assert their independence.
My guess is that the hardliners would do their utmost to keep the Baltics in the Union - especially seeing as Boris Pugo was himself Latvian
 
What would be the exact borders of a post-coup Soviet Union, though? I imagine that at least the Baltic states would be able to successfully assert their independence.
Same as pre-war the Baltics and other republics that left pre-coup are not powerful enough to leave by force
 
Called it! WWIII happening over the Baltics! :p

But why? They weren't given NATO memberhip until 2004 IOTL. Besides that, the US and most of the Western world had considered the Soviet claim to the Baltics illegitimate for years and did very little - why would they fight and die for them now?
 
But why? They weren't given NATO memberhip until 2004 IOTL. Besides that, the US and most of the Western world had considered the Soviet claim to the Baltics illegitimate for years and did very little - why would they fight and die for them now?

That is kind of the thing. WHY would the post-coup USSR start WWIII? And where?
 
Wasn't that the plot of the video game "World In Conflict"?

IIRC the actual state of the Soviet government is never explicitly stated, but the game takes place in 1989 and the Warsaw Pact is still intact.

That is kind of the thing. WHY would the post-coup USSR start WWIII? And where?
Iran seems like the safest bet. Shares a land border with the USSR, is historically an enemy of the USSR, and the US would intervene to defend against Soviet domination of the Persian Gulf as per Carter Doctrine.

A semi-plausible scenario could be that the hardliners fear that Iran will take advantage of the somewhat chaotic state of the post-coup Soviet Union to spread Islamic Revolution to the Muslim SSRs, leading to an invasion.
 
IIRC the actual state of the Soviet government is never explicitly stated, but the game takes place in 1989 and the Warsaw Pact is still intact.


Iran seems like the safest bet. Shares a land border with the USSR, is historically an enemy of the USSR, and the US would intervene to defend against Soviet domination of the Persian Gulf as per Carter Doctrine.

A semi-plausible scenario could be that the hardliners fear that Iran will take advantage of the somewhat chaotic state of the post-coup Soviet Union to spread Islamic Revolution to the Muslim SSRs, leading to an invasion.

*cue Threads becoming a reality*
 
Iran seems like the safest bet. Shares a land border with the USSR, is historically an enemy of the USSR, and the US would intervene to defend against Soviet domination of the Persian Gulf as per Carter Doctrine.
It would be if they're dumb enough to try to take the whole thing, It's more likely they just rip off Azerbaijani parts and call it a day.
 
It would be if they're dumb enough to try to take the whole thing, It's more likely they just rip off Azerbaijani parts and call it a day.

Why not just make an Iranian pro-Communist government after they annex the Azerbaijani parts?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
A semi-plausible scenario could be that the hardliners fear that Iran will take advantage of the somewhat chaotic state of the post-coup Soviet Union to spread Islamic Revolution to the Muslim SSRs, leading to an invasion.
This is only a little more than a decade after the Embassy crisis. If the USSR wants the Ayatollah gone then it could work out a deal with the USA to either partition the country or install a regime tolerable to both.
 
This is only a little more than a decade after the Embassy crisis. If the USSR wants the Ayatollah gone then it could work out a deal with the USA to either partition the country or install a regime tolerable to both.

Then again, not like the hardliners wanted to negotiate with the West. So..... o_O
 
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