Okay so this is (yet another) attempt for a united Scandinavia/Nordic countries. I know there have been quite a few threads about it before but in my opinion most of them have either been wanks, unrealistic or unresolved. This is my attempt for an atleast semi-realistic Scandninavian union, born in the age of nationalism. The point of diversion is around 1864 but does not include Denmark winning the second S-H war.
November 1863: King Christian IX signs the November constitution, making the duchy of Schleswig a part of the Kingdom of Denmark both sharing succesion laws and parliament. This is seen as a violation of 1852 London Protocol.
December 1863: Danish soldiers move to the banks of the Eider to counter the German-support soldiers in Holstein. Sweden declares support of Denmark but doesn’t ship over troops to danish soil.
January 1864: Prussia and Austria sends ultimatum to Denmark. Sweden mobilizes it’s army and move into Denmark.
February 1864: Prussian soldiers enter Holstein. The danish army is pushed back from Kongehøj to Dannevirke where they are joined up by the swedish army. With the additional forces and pressure from swedish command the army tries to hold the Dannevirke.
March 1864: As the snow disappears the prussians begin a serious assault on the dannevirke. In a matter of hours the modern prussian artillery destroy the so-thought mighty defenses of Dannevirke, and then it’s stormed. The battle is a chrushing victory for the prussians who capture about one third of the danish army. The remaining army begins a retreat to Dybbøl.
April 1864: The danish-swedish forces entrench themself at Dybbøl. The will to fight is still high in Denmark but in Sweden government starts to lose faith in the war, seeing how technologically outmatched their soldiers are.
May 1864: Increased naval activity in the baltic sea disturbs Russian trade. The russians begin pressuring Sweden to pull out of the war. A conference is held in London and with the additional pressure from Sweden and indirectly Russia, Denmark reluctantly agrees to a partition of Schleswig-Holstein. A treaty is signed ending the war.
Now that was the easy part, i.e giving Denmark a what might seem to be a slightly better peace deal in Schleswig-Holstein. What could this mean in the aftermath? The moral was still high in Copenhagen and both the higher classes and people feel that the government gave up to early. This anger starts being directed towards the King Christian IX, who wasn’t very popular but most of all: German. General unrest and resent towards him starts rising, and it soon riots starts to break out in the country. The situation isn’t easened by the fact that a large part of what was the danish army is still in “captivity” in Germany and Austria. The riots start escalading and the people starts to demand the abdication of the King under the word of “Ud med tysken” (out with the german). Though Prussia highly dislikes this they have already been entangled in the Austro-Prussian war to prevent it. Sweden can’t do much either since their army is exhausted from the war. Britain doesn’t see it fitting to enter with forces in Denmark since they went to great lengths to be neutral in the war. Therefore the danish king has no choice but to accept the demands of the people and abdicate. The question now remains: Who is to be King of Denmark? The danes aren’t looking to create a republic since they at this point is one of Europe’s most democratic countries anyway and that wouldn’t be tolerated by the rest of Europe anyway. The people of Denmark chooses the King of Sweden to for a candidate. And even though the great powers of Europe don’t like the thought of one country controlling the entry to the baltic, they even less wish for an extended European conflict, either due to Danish revolutionary thought or having to invade Sweden to back down it’s claim. King Charles the 5th is crowned King of Denmark, there is now after 350 years, a united scandinavian kingdom.
What will happen later? Well since pan-scandinavian nationalism is bound to skyrocket in popularity after this it’s unlikely that Norway is as concerned about breaking free from the “New Calmar Union”. Industrialisation will come at about the same time as it did in OTL and the Kingdom will probably become more and more democratic (since the danes probably demands that atleast parts of the Danish constitution be incorporated in the Swedish-Norwegian). The new united kingdom is most likely neutral through WW1 like in OTL (they really don’t have a reason to join either side). In the aftermath of the war, if assuming it goes like in OTL, is however interesting: What will happen to Finland? In my opinon it’s not likely that they will want to join the union, seeing as Finnish nationalism was quite anti-swedish. The Åland crisis might play out differently, seeing as how the united Scandinavian government is bound to be more nationalistic than the one Sweden had in OTL. If it is pressured Åland might be allowed to self-determine who to belong to, and would most likely choose the Scandinavian union. Scandinavia might also be given back a little of Schleswig, though it is less likely.
What happens in WW2? This is where it gets REALLY interesting, seeing as all Scandinavian countries had quite different fates in OTL. I’d say the following scenarios are all within reason:
1) If Åland islands either isn’t allowed to self determine, or chooses to remain finnish, Scandinavia might make a deal with the Soviet Union and participate in a invasion (which might well lead to a partition, such as the one of Poland). The finns will unlikely be able to hold off both Scandinavia and the soviets, especially with the lack of swedish supplies. After the war, Scandinavia probably won’t be able to remain neutral.
2) If Åland islands becomes part of Scandinavia, a sort of friendship like that which happened between Finland and Sweden IOTL might happen. Scandinavia might declare war to support Finland against the soviets, which might make them join the axis in the same way Finland did (i.e sort of but not really). This probably won’t change a lot. Scandinavia will probably pull out of the war after operation Barbarossa, much like Finland did. If they don’t I doubt Scandinavia would be enough to stop the allies. Bombing and a possible invasion of either the allies or the soviets is possible. It probably leads to and end of the union after the war with Iceland being a indpendent republic, and Denmark, Norway and Sweden either being allied occupied or part of the soviet union (atleast for a while).
3) If Åland becomes part of Scandinavia but Sweden doesn’t help Finland, Hitler might feel the need to invade Scandinavia. This will probably only drain Nazi Germany even more (rebel activity in an occupied Sweden will likely be the same as it was in Norway, railroads will be blown ect to stop shipping of Iron), and the war will end like it did IOTL. Scandinavia might survive as a united kingdom in this timeline.
And after the war? Scandinavia is likely to join both EU and Nato (assuming those happens) and be quite like what it is today.
Am I reasonable in my assumptions? Did I manage not to make this into a wank? Are you all just tired of United Scandinavias? Please tell me, I’m eager to hear.
Valdemar