Attempt at three-way cold war timeline

[Strategos' Risk]

I’m trying to write a timeline where a Axis-Soviet-Allies cold war occurs after World War II, heavily based on Harry Turtledove’s “Ready for the Fatherland” short story from Counting Up, Counting Down. This is my first World War II timeline, and in fact my first actul TL. I’d really appreciate some help in writing this. Italicized portions are directly from the story.

February 19, 1943: As in “Ready for the Fatherland”, Field Marshal Erich von Manstein assassinates Hitler during a meeting in the small Russian factory town of Zaporozhye for making fun of his nose. The only witnesses are Hitler’s puppets, Generals Jodl and Keitel, and the “real soldier” Von Kleist, who conspires with Manstein to clean up the mess.

Presumably, they cook up some story heroic enough to explain the deaths of the fuehrer and two generals.

Summer 1943: After several weeks or so of politicking and purging, Manstein emerges as the leader of the Reich, or at least at a position of enough power to deal with the SS and super-Nazis, taking steps to stop the concentration camp system in exchange for slave labor. If not, he gets someone to sanction dismantling the camps and deporting the undesirables instead to focus war production on war instead of genocide. Maybe Heydrich is assassinated. He also negotiates a separate peace with the Soviet Union.

The USSR leaves the Allies and the war. [[I need help in coming up with the terms of peace]]

The massacre of Poles by the Soviets is much more publicized than in OTL, as the people who know it are angry at the separate peace.

July 1943: The Allied Invasion of Sicily begins on the 10th.

A vote of no-confidence is achieved against Mussolini, and he is removed from power and confined on the 25th.

September: Italian Prime Minister Badgolio negotiates a surrender with the Allies on the 3rd. The invasion of Italy begins.

December: No Battle of Kursk, so enough German forces are transferred and drive the invasion back to the sea. However, the Allies still have possession of Sicily.

The Germans announce the formation of the Social Republic of Italy after the failed invasion. Mussolini is reinstated in Rome; Badgolio and King Emmanuel flee.

…That’s all I have for now. Like I said, this is my first TL. I’d really appreciate it if someone can tell me if what I have so far is realistic enough.

I’d like some help with the Russo-German peace treaty. In the story, Poland, half of Ukraine, and Serbia are Germany’s lands. The Balkans is probably Axis-dominated, with Croatia also dominating parts of Yugoslavia. The Middle East is independent of the Axis or Commies, but I can change that.

What’s supposed to happen next is Rommel had the men to crush the Anglo-American lodgment in France, but I’m not sure how that would go. The War in the Pacific is basically the same.

Can anyone please help me?

 

[Codeman]

u could have a peace after the invasion failied in italy i doubt the people in america would be happy about a failed invasion maybe an operation sealion revisted knocking britian out or a germany getting the a-bomb same time as america and they negotiate a peace after germans nuke britian and allies nuke japan

 

[FlyingDutchman]

He also negotiates a separate peace with the Soviet Union.

That means that where ever the Allies have a landconnection to the Axis, they're going to get overrun. The Allies should be lucky if they manage to hang on to Sicily, they just don't have the amount of divisions to face the Germans. In order for a D-Day to succeed you'd need the Americans to fully mobilise, not limit themselves to 90 divisions. That will mean less industrial production for the Allies, so no Lend-Lease to other Allies or the Soviets any more. OTOH why would they give Soviets LL if they 'left' WWII?

A Sealion I don't really see happening at all. The Germans are too far behind with regard to naval/air matters.
Regarding air; the Germans don't have access to high-octane fuel and the precious metals needed for exotic alloys for (jet)engines. Ofcourse they'll be able to massproduce Focke Wulf's but in the end the Axis' airforce are going to be outperformed and outnumbered by the Allies.
Regarding navy; Even if the Germans start producing carriers like there's no tomorrow (since they'll have less capacity than the Allies that'll be difficult), by the time those start getting ready it'll be '45 and the Allies can nuke the Germans into surrender.

 

[dmz23]

I think your TL is pretty good.Maybe the seperate peace in the East is similar to the brest-Litovsk treaty in WW1.I think Stalin talked about that kind of arrangement at the height of the Germans victories in 1941.
Well,
If you want Rommel to win in Normandy:His panzer divisions are placed closer to the beaches[not split in half as in OTL].With no war in Russia,the Germans should be able to accelerate production of Panther and Tigers.In OTL about a half of German tank strength in Normandy consisted of Panthers,I think they could push it up to three quarters in your TL.The allies presumably have Air superiority as in OTL,but this could be offset by more German armour and high quality infantry.Result:Allied beach landings are a bloodbath.German machine-gunners cut down droves of allied soldiers.Panzers are probably delayed by Air attacks,paratroopers and naval gunnery,but eventually role onto the beaches from the East,smashing british/Canadian forces and pinning down remaining American near Utah,Omaha beaches.Trapped Allies surrender,Churchill government probably falls.Japan-first strategy is now adopted by U.S and a reluctant Roosevelt.Pacfic war ends,U.S public has no mood for re-entering Europe so they withdraw and Truman uses threat of A-bombs to keep Germany in line for the rest of the 40s.Britain is also given a few U.S nukes.
If you want a German defeat:Allies learn from failure in Italy.They need bigger and better tanks.In OTL,a prototype Sherman with a 90mm was produced in late 1943.The design was never adopted,but in your TL,it would make the Shermans much more Competitive by giving them the firepower equivalent to a Tiger one.Allies could also improve their anti-tank weaponry by using the british 90mm anti-aircraft gun in a tank busting role.D-Day,allies manage to push off the beaches as in OTL.Fighting in Normandy goes on for Weeks as terrain favors defense and the Germans will have more units than OTL.Allies build up,quicker than Germans can reinforce[their logistics are disrupted by French resistance,allied planes etc].Allies break out,Germans withdraw from France.Massive attritional conflict along Germanys West Frontier,all take heavy casualities.Unable to break the deadlock,a peace treaty is agreed,where the Germans lose territory but keep some important areas.Casualities make U.S more isolationist in Post-war years and Britain is poorer due to larger war debts.
That stuff I wrote there is pretty rough,the major problem in all these ATLs is that the Americans and British in OTL recognised that anywhere they faced the Wehrmacht on equal terms they would lose.
Anyway thanks for the TL,keep it up.

 

[M79]

Potential 3rd powers for a Cold War timeline:

1) Germany
2) Japan
3) Italy, assuming it stays neutral in WWII and is managed a bit differently in the 1930s
4) Greece/Byzantines if they can hold their turf from 1922 and expand depending on their neighbors
5) UK if relations between Allies sour near war's end or if US goes overboard somehow
6) Alliance of South American states walking the line between Communism and Capitalism
7) United Arab Republic

 

[Wendell]

Possible Peace terms:

• Annexation of Ostmark to Germany, minus pre-1939 Byelorussian SSR.
• Annexation of General-Gouvernement Polen by Germany
• Recognition of lands annexed to the Reich directly by the USSR as legitimate parts of Germany
  [*}Recognition of dismantling of Czechoslovakia, and its occupaton by Germany.
• Legalization of opposition parties in Germany
• Restoration of Ukrainian SSR, and a rump Byelorussian SSR
• Evacuation of ethnic Germans from the USSR, in return for prewar Soviet citizens in areas granted to Germany.
• Immediate evacuation of military forces to new frontiers.

See Here
and Here.

 

[Riain]

Since the Industrial Revolution there have been only 3 potential superpowers, the USA, SU and Greater Germany-which needs sattelites to achieve this status. All other great powers have unsolvable impediments when it comes to superpowerdom, and thus competing against superpowers. Perhaps the closest cooperation between France and Britain could see them act in concert as a 4th superpower, but neither can do it alone. So to have the 3 sided Cold War Greater Germany must come into being. My preference is for this to happen in WW1 so we miss out on the joys of Nazism, and perhaps force the Anglo-French strategic partnership to bring about a 4th superpower.