masteroftheveiledthreat
Banned
If the Atlanta Campaign were an utter failure how likely is it the CSA wins the war?
My biggest question is what happens between the elction of McClellan and his inauguration the following March? Will the outgoing Lincoln administraion and Army leadership go for an all-out victory drive on all fronts to try to settle the issue before the Copperheads take over? If Lincoln decides to respect the will of the elctorate and orders the Army to stand and hold on all fronts, could some commands disobey and continue the fight against orders?
If Atlanta is still in Confederate hands on election day, 1864, then it's probably better than even money that McClellan would win. Best case scenario for the CSA at this point in the war is the lost of Tennessee, Virginia north of the Rappahanock, and southeastern Lousiana (the Union has held the mouth of the River up to Baton Rouge since summer 62 and aren't giving it up), though perhaps the North lets them keep the Indian Territory. Other "minor" but strategic territories such as the Virginia end of the Delmarva and the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas would also remain in US hands.
I think the best case for the Confederacy is even worse than that. By 1864, the Union controls much of Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama as well. If the Union strategy changes from "crush the entire Confederacy and win the war" to "secure as much Confederate territory as possible" than all three of those states and Louisiana is basically lost.
Why take it? Well for one in much of the areas held the population of unionist. The second reason is to criple their rival to the maximum extent possible. I don't see a confederacy that doesn't control New Orleans lasting all that long, even if it does manage a peace settlement.But if the independence of the Confederacy is acknowledged, why would the Union want said territory? If the population is granted political equality, you'll have significant white pro-slavery representation in the federal government once again. If they disenfranchise former Confederates in those territories, then you'll have a never-ending guerrilla war - Mosby's Confederacy times a hundred.
As for Louisiana in particular, the Union didn't control the state except within the range of gunboats on the Mississippi River. In early 1864, the Confederates smashed the Union army when it tried to take over the western part of the state.
I think the best the CSA could hope for at this point was a draw. Then they'd just be setting themselves up for another war 10-20 years down the road.
It's conventional wisdom on AH.com that the United States would eventually try to reconquer the Confederacy, but I have never seen a convincing argument fir this belief.
But if the independence of the Confederacy is acknowledged, why would the Union want said territory? If the population is granted political equality, you'll have significant white pro-slavery representation in the federal government once again. If they disenfranchise former Confederates in those territories, then you'll have a never-ending guerrilla war - Mosby's Confederacy times a hundred.
As for Louisiana in particular, the Union didn't control the state except within the range of gunboats on the Mississippi River. In early 1864, the Confederates smashed the Union army when it tried to take over the western part of the state.
It's conventional wisdom on AH.com that the United States would eventually try to reconquer the Confederacy, but I have never seen a convincing argument fir this belief.