I am starting to work on a timeline where the POD is that Ibrahim Pasha decides to march on Istanbul right after winning the Battle of Nizip during the Second Ottoman-Egyptian War. As a result, the Ottomans agree to restore the status quo ante bellum. ITTL, Mehmet Ali Pasha dies around the time he does OTL, and Ibrahim succeeds him as Khedive. After becoming Khedive, Ibrahim decides to replace the Egyptian monopolies with a relatively high land tax, in order to incentivize industrialization. As a result, revolts occur, and the royal family becomes antagonistic to Ibrahim. The Ottomans take advantage of the turmoil and invade Cilicia/Syria. How plausible does this sound, and what would the outcome of such a war be?

As a side note, could the Russians take advantage of a distracted Ottoman Empire and invade them?
 
With regard to Russia, didn't they support the Ottoman Empire against the Egyptians in the first place? What would compel them to take a complete 180 on the situation, especially when Austria, Prussia, and the UK had also all sided with the Ottomans in the Oriental Crisis?
 
With regard to Russia, didn't they support the Ottoman Empire against the Egyptians in the first place? What would compel them to take a complete 180 on the situation, especially when Austria, Prussia, and the UK had also all sided with the Ottomans in the Oriental Crisis?

The Russians tepidly supported the Ottomans during the Oriental Crisis, but the Russians and Turks were far from being friends. This hypothetical third war would take place around the time of the Spring of Nations, so France, Austria, and Prussia will have more pressing matters at home, meaning the British would be alone in facing Russia.
 
The Russians tepidly supported the Ottomans during the Oriental Crisis, but the Russians and Turks were far from being friends. This hypothetical third war would take place around the time of the Spring of Nations, so France, Austria, and Prussia will have more pressing matters at home, meaning the British would be alone in facing Russia.

And Russia would be busy fighting the Hungarians to aid Austria.

In 1848, Egypt is not going to beat the Ottoman Empire alone.
 
With regard to Russia, didn't they support the Ottoman Empire against the Egyptians in the first place? What would compel them to take a complete 180 on the situation, especially when Austria, Prussia, and the UK had also all sided with the Ottomans in the Oriental Crisis?

Unless an Anti-Russian Coalition is formed in the late 1840s I don't see Russia turning 180 degrees.
 
I am starting to work on a timeline where the POD is that Ibrahim Pasha decides to march on Istanbul right after winning the Battle of Nizip during the Second Ottoman-Egyptian War. As a result, the Ottomans agree to restore the status quo ante bellum. ITTL, Mehmet Ali Pasha dies around the time he does OTL, and Ibrahim succeeds him as Khedive. After becoming Khedive, Ibrahim decides to replace the Egyptian monopolies with a relatively high land tax, in order to incentivize industrialization. As a result, revolts occur, and the royal family becomes antagonistic to Ibrahim. The Ottomans take advantage of the turmoil and invade Cilicia/Syria. How plausible does this sound, and what would the outcome of such a war be?

As a side note, could the Russians take advantage of a distracted Ottoman Empire and invade them?

In any given time between 1815 and 1853? Yes. Except in 1848 as they are fighting the Hungarians. Besides, the last war since 1848 was declared in 1828 because Mahmud II blocked the Straits. What is the Empire going to do to piss off Nicholas I enough to invade it again? Abdulmecid I was no dumbass to provoke Russia.

The problem of your scenario is that the Great Powers forced Mehmed Ali to give up the Levant. In 1848 Egypt would have their most Eastern border as the Sinai. Regardless if Mehmed Ali marches on to Istanbul.

And even then, the outcome would be likely the same (Ottomans prevented from taking Egypt back and Egypt reduced as an semi-independent Eyalet under Ibrahim Pasha).
 
In any given time between 1815 and 1853? Yes. Except in 1848 as they are fighting the Hungarians. Besides, the last war since 1848 was declared in 1828 because Mahmud II blocked the Straits. What is the Empire going to do to piss off Nicholas I enough to invade it again? Abdulmecid I was no dumbass to provoke Russia.

The problem of your scenario is that the Great Powers forced Mehmed Ali to give up the Levant. In 1848 Egypt would have their most Eastern border as the Sinai. Regardless if Mehmed Ali marches on to Istanbul.

And even then, the outcome would be likely the same (Ottomans prevented from taking Egypt back and Egypt reduced as an semi-independent Eyalet under Ibrahim Pasha).

The POD for this scenario is that the Egyptians managed to win the Second Ottoman-Egyptian War, and quickly enough so the Great Powers aren't able to intervene in time. Therefore, the Levant, Crete, Hejaz, and Adana are still part of Egypt.
 
The POD for this scenario is that the Egyptians managed to win the Second Ottoman-Egyptian War, and quickly enough so the Great Powers aren't able to intervene in time. Therefore, the Levant, Crete, Hejaz, and Adana are still part of Egypt.

I don't think you get it. Egypt DID WIN in OTL and went a second time deep in Anatolia. They'd be in Uskudar but the Powers can intervene even afterwards.

An example, Russia won in 1878 and had their own treaty with the Ottomans. But the Powers intervened anyway and changed the treaty.

You want a result that doesn't require Great Powers to intervene? Have them be busy fighting a major war in Europe. Because if the Great Powers are not busy they will intervene regardless after a treaty. They won't back out because is peace is made. That's just wishful thinking.

The only possibility with Egypt retaining the Levant is if Europe is at war during Nizip. With Europe, I mean UK, France, Russia and Austria. A crisis in Belgium or Italy would do the trick and it does not have to last too long, 3-4 years are enough. After that, your scenario gets more likely.
 
With regard to Russia, didn't they support the Ottoman Empire against the Egyptians in the first place? What would compel them to take a complete 180 on the situation, especially when Austria, Prussia, and the UK had also all sided with the Ottomans in the Oriental Crisis?
As far as I know the Russians supported the ottomans not because they supported the ottomans but because they supported the idea of the great powers acting in concert.

Their natural interests would have seen them supporting the Egyptians.

I wonder if there are any accessible sources that explain the Russian reasons for following along with the powers. If Russia didn't back the powers would it have made a difference.
 
I don't think you get it. Egypt DID WIN in OTL and went a second time deep in Anatolia. They'd be in Uskudar but the Powers can intervene even afterwards.

An example, Russia won in 1878 and had their own treaty with the Ottomans. But the Powers intervened anyway and changed the treaty.

You want a result that doesn't require Great Powers to intervene? Have them be busy fighting a major war in Europe. Because if the Great Powers are not busy they will intervene regardless after a treaty. They won't back out because is peace is made. That's just wishful thinking.

The only possibility with Egypt retaining the Levant is if Europe is at war during Nizip. With Europe, I mean UK, France, Russia and Austria. A crisis in Belgium or Italy would do the trick and it does not have to last too long, 3-4 years are enough. After that, your scenario gets more likely.

Considering this, is there a way that the Second Ottoman-Egyptian War could have been averted? What prompted the Ottomans to invade at the time they did OTL?
 
Considering this, is there a way that the Second Ottoman-Egyptian War could have been averted? What prompted the Ottomans to invade at the time they did OTL?

Could? Yes. The Ottoman Admiral does not take the Fleet to Egypt. Have him accept the newly appointed Grand Vizier or have him die... or just appoint a new Grand Vizier.
 
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