ATL possibilities for Russia in WWI:

Snake Featherston

Banned
I've mentioned before that there are some wars whose outcomes are very difficult to alter in terms of AH potential, at least as I see it. One of these to me is the situation of Imperial Russia in any WWI scenario. To me the reason for this has very little to do with any military decisions Tsar Nicholas II and his regime would make and a very great deal to do with the aftermath of the 1905 Revolution. Russia after that revolution had amassed a great deal of wealth and it made a great military recovery as well, but it had the major problem of a Tsar whose character tended to be indecisive and a regime which on the whole was not only rooted in force but lacked the kind of character willing to initiate draconian crackdowns *with* force. Leading to the worst of all worlds, namely reliance on force and revealing that force to be ineffectual.

It's not out of the realm of possibility for Russia to do better in fighting against Germany, but unless these PODs include serious resolutions to the internal issues of Russia (which in a regime dominated by someone like Grigori Rasputin is..........not likely) I don't really see any way for Russia to come out of WWI with Tsarism intact or strengthened. What I do think tends to be neglected is the degree to which the end of Tsarism might not mean the end of Russia as a unified imperial entity. If WWI ends sooner to a point where the Provisional Government has time to go from Provisional Government to the Rule of the Duma, that might well lead to at the very least a different, potentially better outcome to WWI in Central Europe.

I think what tends to be overlooked is how implausible the circumstances leading up to the Great October Revolution of OTL actually were, though when that Revolution gained all the old Tsarist arms depots and most of Russia's big cities, its victory against any Russian opposition was virtually guaranteed IMHO unless it suffered internal collapse.

So what kind of possibilities are out there for Russia's role in WWI that haven't been explored?
 

RadioSilence

If my memory is right the Bolsheviks were only a minority of radicals within some larger socialist party. What if this party as a whole, or a different part of it had gotten the upper hand? Perhaps they would've been elected to the Duma and the whole civil war may have been avoided.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
RadioSilence said:
If my memory is right the Bolsheviks were only a minority of radicals within some larger socialist party. What if this party as a whole, or a different part of it had gotten the upper hand? Perhaps they would've been elected to the Duma and the whole civil war may have been avoided.
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The thing is that this Party *did* actually represent the will of the majority of Russians. The Social Revolutionaries never developed an effective army, however. The Bolsheviks developed a huge army and had freebie logistics. No army in a civil war v. Big Dog on the Bloc = Big Dog wins.
 

RadioSilence

Snake Featherston said:
The thing is that this Party *did* actually represent the will of the majority of Russians. The Social Revolutionaries never developed an effective army, however. The Bolsheviks developed a huge army and had freebie logistics. No army in a civil war v. Big Dog on the Bloc = Big Dog wins.
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If the Provisional Government stays intact, why would they need an army? They could simply get elected into power and not have to fight anyone militarily.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
RadioSilence said:
If the Provisional Government stays intact, why would they need an army? They could simply get elected into power and not have to fight anyone militarily.
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Because if the war goes on too long, the greater are the odds that the greater organization in wartime of the Bolsheviks give them an opportunity to pull off a coup d'etat and initiate a civil war for the old Empire.
 

RadioSilence

Snake Featherston said:
Because if the war goes on too long, the greater are the odds that the greater organization in wartime of the Bolsheviks give them an opportunity to pull off a coup d'etat and initiate a civil war for the old Empire.
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By "war", do you mean the Eastern Front against the Germans?

I guess I am unclear on how divided the Social Revolutionaries were, and when this divide began to make a difference.

Perhaps there would be some way to have the Bolsheviks never manifest, but the SR still makes the decision to end WW1.
 

Snake Featherston

Banned
RadioSilence said:
By "war", do you mean the Eastern Front against the Germans?

I guess I am unclear on how divided the Social Revolutionaries were, and when this divide began to make a difference.

Perhaps there would be some way to have the Bolsheviks never manifest, but the SR still makes the decision to end WW1.
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Yes, that one. They were divided into three factions, the largest led by guys like Alexander Kerensky, the Mensheviks, and the Bolsheviks. The problem with the SRs making that decision is that they tried to adhere to Russia's agreement with their Allies instead of unilaterally abrogating it.
 

ModernKiwi

From recollection the Imperial Russian Government badly f***ed up the economy during the war. Inflation was high, wages in factories were luring farmers away from their lands leading to higher food prices (and price controls on wheat didn't help here) and so forth. I seem to remember that the first revolution was kicked off by a shortage of bread in St Petrograd.

Clearly they needed someone - anyone - with a bit more economics knowledge. A war bonds scheme to take out of circulation some of the higher wages and some fat taxes on war profits maybe.

Of course the taxes are going to affect the nobility who owned a large %-age of the factories so they're not going to give this much support. And the bonds are only going to be bought up if people believe they'll be paid back at the end of the war.
 

Catspoke

Prioritize completing the Murmansk railway before the war (at the expense of other rail if necessary). OTL: The Russians had thought about doing it before the war but didn't. It would greatly facilitate export and import since the Black and Baltic Sea was blocked.

OR

Dont do offensives past 1915, Gallipoli has failed, Kut has surrendered, Serbia has fallen, its obvious the war is lasting long, original war aims are hard to obtain, switch to survival mode, collectively all the allies should do this, rely on blockade

OR

Have the communists not surrender in March 1918 (or have the Germans keep going like Hoffman claimed he wanted), either way have the communist regime get taken out by the Germans in March 1918 (perhaps the Germans don't do 1918 in the west). When the Allies win, and they will if the USA is in the war (maybe the Czar and his family somehow dodge the July 1918 bullet in this scenerio and some white faction creates a constitutional monarchy) hope something better than the communists appears. Have the USA support whatever fills in the vacuum when the Germans surrender.
 

Rich Rostrom

Snake Featherston said:
I've mentioned before that there are some wars whose outcomes are very difficult to alter in terms of AH potential, at least as I see it. One of these to me is the situation of Imperial Russia in any WWI scenario.
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There are several major AH possibilities.

1) Goeben never makes it to Turkey, and Turkey remains neutral.

This relieves Russia of the Caucasus Front (where they kicked Turkish butt, BTW), and leaves the Straits open to Russian commerce, thus avoiding major economic problems for Russia. Is this enough to reverse OTL's outcome? Possibly, I'm sure. It will certainly change the outcome in some major ways.

Also, it deters Bulgaria from joining the Central Powers and encourages Romania to join the Allies.

2) The Gallipoli offensive succeeds, with Russian forces participating in the capture of Constantinople (from the north).

As above, though later. Also, France and Britain may offer Russia token status in Constantinople. If the Tsar is the first Christian to receive Communion in reconsecrated Hagia Sophia, that has to play well in Petropavlovsk.

3) Different generals in command in east Prussia in 1914.

The Russians had to bungle badly to lose that campaign. Even a limited success, combined with the failure of Germany's western campaign, would put great pressure on the Central Powers to bail out of the war.

4) Changes in the Imperial family.

The Tsesarevich is healthy, or one of his older sisters is a boy (PoD before the war, of course).

This eliminates the baleful influence of Rasputin, and probably reduces the folly of the Tsarina. Her understandably obsessive concern with her only son's illness was part of what unbalanced her.

What this means in terms of the military balance, Idunno. But it can't hurt.
 
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