ATL Italy on par with OTL France?

I've been pondering ways to have a greater Italy during the 19th Century, and so far haven't been able to come up with much. The idea is to create an Italy with as much overseas influence by the end of the 19th Century as France did in OTL, which is hard because France had a major headstart given that it has existed as a unified state far longer than Italy.

My initial thoughts were to create some kind of pan-Italian identity born out of Napoleanic-styled nationalism - that is to say, after the end of the Napoleanic Wars, have an Italian state form that maybe excludes the Austrian lands and the Papal States until a later date.

Any other ideas?
 
I've seen the idea thrown around (an idea I myself intend to utilize in my own TL, thank you Eurofed ;)) of Napoleonic client King Murat of Naples surviving the Congress of Vienna and then paving the way for and Alt. Italian Unification lead by Naples instead of Piedmont-Sardinia ahead of schedule. With an earlier 19th century unification of Italy I think you might be able to get a stronger Italy that can better compete with France.
 
The Revolutions of 1830 are successful in Italy (somehow), leading to Louis Philippe losing his crown and a return to Bourbon absolutism, which retards France's development significantly. By the time of alt-1848, or its analogue, the Province Italiane Unite is posed to unite all of the peninsula, while France struggles under the most backward and reactionary of European governments outside of Russia.

Actually, that would make for a really interesting timeline. Hmm... ;)
 

Eurofed

Banned
Yes, the best way one can make Italy do better in the great power competition with France/A-H (and Germany in the competition with the British Empire/Russia) is to anticipate the success of Italian (and German) unification.

A victory in 1848 would in all likelihood suffice, but the earlier it happens after the Napoleonic Wars the better. Of course, much the better for Italy if the unification process can also somehow get it rid of the Papacy's corrupting influence on politics, enact a decent land reform, and/or recover the irredenta already (and for Germany if it can include Austria proper and Bohemia-Moravia).

An even better occurrence is if the early success of the Italian and German unifications can happen in close parallel and lead the two powers to stage a mutually beneficial partition of the Habsburg empire with Hungary.

Without the divisive influence of the Habsburg zombie between them, the two "new powers" were natural allies with complementary strategic interests that could easily strike a mutually beneficial partnership to withstand and eventually outstage the Entente "old powers" front of Britain, France, and Russia (well, actually Russia was either an "old power" like UK, France, Austria, and Spain, or a "new power" like Italy, Germany, and the USA, depending on how you looked at it), optimally turning one of the latter in an ally, a least for a while.
 
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Italy does not have the potential to become as powerful as a Napoleonic "super France" or as a France which manages to evolve and reforms itself instead of undergoing revolutions.

It can however easily become as powerful if not powerful than present day or Third Republic France if the right decisions are taken during the 19th century. The earlier the unification is, the better things would be but the rule of the law and effective governmental institutions will have to be built at the same time.

Economically, Italy geographic position is not as good as France, but much easier to turn into an asset, since there won't be any conflicts like "Atlantic or Mediterranean, Europe or the Oceans" which plagued and still plague French decision making and strategic outlook. If Italy manages to get her hand on Tunisia, Libya and Eastern Algeria, she will be a position to effectively control the entire Mediterranean bassin, including all the east-west trade routes. Securing Eritrea and Somalia would complement this very nicely, since Italy would in a way control two of the world busiests maritime and trade crossroads. The key will however be to extract as much value as possible from these geographical and political assets. Southern Italy will have to become the entryway to central and northern Europe from the south, for Italy to really leverage her geographical position in economic success. Unlike our history, the Italian railway network will have to have very strong and resilient north-south links. The aim should be that unloading goods in Taranto and railing them to Munich or Breslau, takes less time that shipping them to Trieste and the railing them, or even than going all the way around Europe to Antwerpen or to Hamburg.

A problem I see facing Italy especially for massive industrialisation to take place, will be the lack of combustible fuels, especially coal. Importing from Germany or Central Europe will only be good to a degree and places Italy in a position of weakness. Alpine dams and hydroelectricity won't come online until the late 19th century if not early 20th century, so there is a bottleneck there and one which needs to be solved. France faced the same issues, but had plenty of foresets to burn and large rivers to exploit then nuclear power came and made shortages a thing of the past.

Anothing highly important thing which Italy must do, is not to "waste" her sons and daughters by shipping them over to America for want or for lack of alternatives. If Emigration takes place, it should be directed towards settlements colonies in North Africa and the African horn. Easier said than done I know, but even if just 10% of the migrants go to Africa instead of America it will be enough to plant a seed there.

Eurofed what do you think?
 
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Eurofed

Banned
Italy does not have the potential to become as powerful as a Napoleonic "super France" or as a France which manages to evolve and reforms itself of undergoing revolutions.

It can however easily become as powerful if not powerful than present day or Third Republic France if the right decisions are taken during the 19th century. The earlier the unification is, the better things would be but the rule of the law and effective governmental institutions will have to be built at the same time.

More or less, yes. I think that an optimized "normal" Italy might still be the rough equal of an optimized "normal" France or close to, but otherwise I agree. All other things being equal, the natural resources assets of France would not make that overwhelming of a difference.

Economically, Italy geographic position is not as good as France, but much easier to turn into an asset, since there won't be any conflicts like "Atlantic or Mediterranean, Europe or the Oceans" which plagued and still plague French decision making and strategic outlook. If Italy manages to get her hand on Tunisia, Libya and Eastern Algeria, she will be a position to effectively control the entire Mediterranean bassin, including all the east-west trade routes. Securing Eritrea and Somalia would complement this very nicely, since Italy would in a way control two of the world busiests maritime and trade crossroads. The key will however be to extract as much value as possible from these geographical and political assets. Southern Italy will have to become the entryway to central and northern Europe from the south, for Italy to really leverage her geographical position in economic success. Unlike our history, the Italian railway network will have to have very strong and resilient north-south links. The aim should be that unloading goods in Taranto and railing them to Munich or Breslau, takes less time that shipping them to Trieste and the railing them, or even than going all the way around Europe to Antwerpen or to Hamburg.

Full agreement on this. :D

A problem I see facing Italy especially for massive industrialisation to take place, will be the lack of combustible fuels, especially coal. Importing from Germany or Central Europe will only be good to a degree and places Italy in a position of weakness. Alpine dams and hydroelectricity won't come online until the late 19th century if not early 20th century, so there is a bottleneck there and one which needs to be solved. France faced the same issues, but had plenty of foresets to burn and large rivers to exploit then nuclear power came and made shortages a thing of the past.

IMO, if a solid partnership with Germany is secured early and the north-south rail network optimized both domestically and with northern Europe, German coal may work as a good stopgap solution to Italy's energy needs. In the long term, a mix of hydroelectric power, exploitation of Italianized Maghreb oil and gas, and nuclear power would be the solution.

Anothing highly important thing which Italy must do, is not to "waste" her sons and daughters by shipping them over to America for want or for lack of alternatives. If Emigration takes place, it should be directed towards settlements colonies in North Africa and the African horn. Easier said than done I know, but even if just 10% of the migrants go to Africa instead of America it will be enough to plant a seed there.

Yep. With a different colonization pattern, the European powers (esp. the ones that had a large 19th century population surplus like Italy, Germany, and Russia) could have easily flooded the portions of Africa with valuable land, natural resources, and a congenial climate like the Maghreb, East Africa, and/or Southern Africa with settlers and Europeanized them.
 
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Without the divisive influence of the Habsburg zombie .....

Like it :D

What about Frances wealthy empire, this has to be cut down to size, or Italy needs to gain something similar, not on really.
Unless Germany whoops France and then agrees that Italy its ally should inherit a large part of Frances Empire.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Like it :D

What about Frances wealthy empire, this has to be cut down to size, or Italy needs to gain something similar, not on really.
Unless Germany whoops France and then agrees that Italy its ally should inherit a large part of Frances Empire.

Well, the various parts of French colonial empires were rather unequal in value, there were the quite wealthy ones (North Africa, Indochina), the decent ones (Congo, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Guinea), the so-so ones (Madagascar) and the albatrosses (most of French West Africa).

Depending on which PoD one picks to enhance Italy's fortunes, it may succeed to ensure Italian colonization of some of them (esp. Tunisia and eastern Algeria) before France gets them, or they may have to be won on the battlefield in an alliance with Germany (say in *WWI), or it may be an halfway case (say in a a *1870 Franco-German-Italian War). The earlier the national unifications occur, the more the "new powers" shall be in a position to take part in the 19th century colonial game as the equals of Britain and France.
 
I'm thinking having more people to throw around in Italy would help cement Italian power relative to France. Problem is the earlier you go, to a point, the ratio is more skewed in France's favor. The thing that shifted the population ratios is the massive kill-off that plagues did on the Italian population during medieval times, shifting the power of Europe northwards, along with relative population density. Going that far back is a problem though; you change so much that countries can be unrecognizable. Perhaps having France seep off Frenchmen into a settler colony and general immigration while massively limiting the amount of Italian immigration would help in terms of sheer population and potential clout and political weight?
 
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