alternatehistory.com

Hi there,

I´ve been playing with idea for an alternate timeline for the last couple of months, which was more or less what ultimately brought me here.

The timeline starts with the idea that Wilhelm II, last Emperor of Germany, is not the sort of cocksure, megalomaniac fool he has shown himself to be in the OTL. Most importantly, he does not sack Bismarck two years into his reign, but retains him, as well as a handpicked successor who continues Bismarck´s policies after Bismarck retires due to bad health at some point in the mid-1890s.

To get to that point, I start with Wilhelm II´s birth. In the OTL Wilhelm II is born with a crippled arm due to complications during the birth; in the ATL this does not happen, the birth is easy and he is completely healthy. In the OTL, Wilhelm II suffered from... issues due to that crippled arm, which he doesn´t have in the ATL.
I´m too much of a realist to think that this is all that is needed, so I will also assume his childhood and upbringing were different enough for him to become, if not a good ruler, then a competent one who is smart enough to listen to competent (if ruthless) advisors such as Bismarck.

So, instead of a naval arms race and wanton colonization efforts which antagonize Britain, and undoing all of Bismarck´s hard diplomatic work to isolate France, Germany stays Britain´s (somewhat junior) partner, and loosely allied with Russia as well - Queen Victoria was Wilhelm´s grandmother, and the Tsar´s wife Alexandra was his cousin, so there were family ties (in fact most of the European nobility was related and intermarried to a ridiculosu degree).


Also, during the American Civil War, the Confederation wins the Battle of Gettysburg, which convinces Britain to give some support to them. I´m not talking about declaring war on the Union, or sending troops, just supplies, arms, allowing Confederate raiders to use their bases - that sort of thing. As a result, the Civil War lasts longer, maybe a year or so, and is quite a lot bloodier. The only substantial result of this change is that the relations between the US and Britain cool considerably for the next couple of decades.
That, in turn, has two results. The first is that ties between the US and France become closer, because they figure that Britain´s rival is their friend. The second is that the US is more involved in the modernization of Japan than in the OTL, because they plan to cultivate Japan as an ally and counterweight to British influence in East Asia.

So, at the turn of the century, we have two loose alliances - one with Britain and Germany as senior partners and the weakening Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires as junior partners, the other with the US and France as senior partners and the nascent Japan as a (right now) junior partner.
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