ATC: The Second Bulgarian Empire Survives

some things in OTL are even more wankish: if you do not know history, would you believe and not mark as wankish the histories of , say, the Roman...

One can't consider the Romans as wankish. Though they did start as a city state, it's not like Athens conquering Persia- Rome played other city states in Italy together, had a remarkably effective military system, which the Bulgarians were not known for, and were talented diplomats.
 
You do reallize that for all that to happen in the same timeline it would require a huge ammount of luck. Actually it's mathematically impossible for everything to go your way, like you described it. Something WILL go wrong in every scenario.

Of course I do. But this is valid for every imperial project and actual performance. The only recepie is grow and grow avoiding the crunches. When the seed is small it is easy to be stomped down into oblivion, at some section of the growth curve things start looking "inevitable" ... until the maximum possible size is reached ( which depends on the available social and material technologies - who can't catch up with implementing adaptation mechanisms - perishes; quite similar behaviour have all population-like entities: cellular automata, living creatures populations, epidemics ... ).
 
Dragos,

First up, the Latin nobles are going to compete with the Bulgarian nobles, even if there's plenty of land for both.

Well, yes, they'll fight for ranks in the imperial hierarchy, and the guys with better resources will win. I bet on the Bulgarian noble party, supported by the other Slavic noblemen originating from the vast millions of people and square kilometers of Central and Eastern Europe.

The latter would want the best lands and privileges, causing the Latins to rankle.

Who breaks the law will be punished.

Not merely that, but Kaloyan might be amenable to Catholicism, but about his relatives, the Orthodox Bulgarian clergy, and the peasantry? You might find that a Papacy-Kaloyan alliance is weaker than you think.

In 9th century when the First Bulgarian Empire adopted the Byzantine christianity almost half the nobles rebeled and have been wiped out by a king ( Boris the Ist ), who was just a tiny fraction so warlike compared with Kaloyan. The oposing relatives shall be dispossessed of land, titles, priviledges. The rebeling peasants steamrolled ( IF there are such, cause do not forget that Ortodoxy have been imposed by blood and force initially, hence the reaction of Bogomilism which infected badly Western Europe, too ). The old clergy will split -- catholicization is wonderfull mechanism the pro-greek parties to be annihilated and to be given way to younger, progressive, pro-Kaloyanic clergy. Bulgaria DID have experience and infrastructure to produce culture and education - in OTL Russia / Muscovy was 99% cultural product shaped by "pirated" Bulgarian spritual and cultural "copyright".

That's not counting the fact that if Kaloyan becomes Emperor, he might think that he should be equal or even superior to the pope.

And to get deprived by the living instrument of his power legitimation? I doubt. Much later Kaloyanic descendants on the throne would step by step take Papacy under their control.

A word more for the East ( except the Nestorian Christians pre-prepared allies ). At the end of 13th century the populatioon of Europe is 70ish millions, while the China one is almost half of this - 40ish. Imagine the reversed mongol-like invasion importing decease which to wipe out 1/2nd or 2/3rds of the Chinese population... China - a WHITE settler colony of the Kaloyanic Romania??!!
 
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Okay, your English is bad and I can't make sense of what you're saying. And no, "I'm not a Native Speaker is no excuse" as I'm not a Native Speaker as well and guides to Spelling and Grammar are available online.
 
And what if you guys stop being jerks for each other? Seriously, i began to wonder if Dementor and I didn't being too far off the subject, but you are winning this.

Seriously, regarding a surviving of Bulgarian state, I asked myself, basing on the thracian basis pointed by Dementor, if a Bulgaria that reached the third sea (Adriatic, Egea, Black Sea) would have managed to contain Ottoman pressure, as an Austria-like, or if the geopgraphical features wouldn't be enough (regarding that this state would cover a good part of the main OTL resistance to the Turks)
 
Of course I do. But this is valid for every imperial project and actual performance. The only recepie is grow and grow avoiding the crunches. When the seed is small it is easy to be stomped down into oblivion, at some section of the growth curve things start looking "inevitable" ... until the maximum possible size is reached ( which depends on the available social and material technologies - who can't catch up with implementing adaptation mechanisms - perishes; quite similar behaviour have all population-like entities: cellular automata, living creatures populations, epidemics ... ).

You say you do realize and then you continue to compile a string of best-case scenario events. Empire building doesn't work like that. You will say "it worked for Rome". Well, Rome was a completely different thing in a completely different age and setting.
 
I've been trying to do something like this for a while, and suspect that there are several possibilities for a POD. My suggestion though would be to have one during the reign of Kaloyan. By the way, if Bulgaria gets control of Constantinople for any length of time, then under most circumstances, the Bulgarians risk becoming a Balkan version of the Manchu, despite having developed a culture and literary tradition distinct from that of the Greeks.
 
I've been trying to do something like this for a while, and suspect that there are several possibilities for a POD. My suggestion though would be to have one during the reign of Kaloyan. By the way, if Bulgaria gets control of Constantinople for any length of time, then under most circumstances, the Bulgarians risk becoming a Balkan version of the Manchu, despite having developed a culture and literary tradition distinct from that of the Greeks.
The ratio between Greeks and Bulgarians is far lower than the one between the Chinese and the Manchu. In fact, the Bulgarians would probably be in the majority (especially if the Empire didn't include parts of Anatolia). So the Manchu scenario is quite unlikely. It should that large parts of Bulgaria have been under Greek rule/influence for centuries, yet only a relatively small number of Bulgarians were assimilated to Greek culture. So there seems to be little reason that this would happen in a state which the Bulgarians dominate.
 
You say you do realize and then you continue to compile a string of best-case scenario events. Empire building doesn't work like that. You will say "it worked for Rome". Well, Rome was a completely different thing in a completely different age and setting.

Well, I'd say that "it worked for any Empire". In the beginning EVERY empire is indistinguishable from the non-empires. Rome, Muscovy, Ottomans, Mongols, ... ... have been just tiny stains on the maps, insignificant population, technology, etc. etc. centers. I say that EVERY empire emergence is a string of more than average lucky events until the "pest" manages to grow enough - to become the monster which is noticed, observed, named an empire. NO polity / society is "pregnant" with imperialism. Imperialism is emergent phenomenon of growth. Slightly prevaling growth acceleration vs. growth restricting factors and voila! out of unexpected corner erupts and Empire in existence.

About the comparison with Rome.: Well, you are right from your perspective I recon. To be clear my one is: the total reserve of humans in the scope of the project.

In case with 1200es "Kaloyanic Catholic-Slavic ERE" the imperial growth is fuelled by very significant comparativelly homogenous human masses occupying very strategicaly important area. If these estimates I quoted are true in 13th century countrary to the usual situation the population of Europe was almost twice higher than the Chinese one, and of these nearly 70 million Europeans, nearly 40 million ( more or as much as the contemporary Chinese population ) were Slavs. Which populate 60+ % of the whole territory of the continent, which are already christianized, and who will be ( I believe ) very happy to take part in an Empire which promotes their own language as official state and church one, or as a dominant one.

Rome have grown from several dozens of thousands into several dozen of millions humans in approx. 500 years and quickly reached its maximum available intake. 25-30 million was almost the maximum they can conquer and make to work for them in their maximum geographic range. They sucked in all the densely populated territories and installed their power, leaving outside only the sparsely populated, hyper poor regions, which does not worth the effort. From then on Rome could grow only intensivelly, which on their stage of tech development and economical growth level ( roughly today's Kongo ), they could barely afford.

From the other hand the "Kaloyanic ERE / Kaloyania" starts with reserve of 25-30 million ethnically similar people...

There must be some objective criteria. Prejudice is the father or mother ( I do not remember exactly the proverb ) of ignorance. ;)
 
The ratio between Greeks and Bulgarians is far lower than the one between the Chinese and the Manchu. In fact, the Bulgarians would probably be in the majority (especially if the Empire didn't include parts of Anatolia). So the Manchu scenario is quite unlikely. It should that large parts of Bulgaria have been under Greek rule/influence for centuries, yet only a relatively small number of Bulgarians were assimilated to Greek culture. So there seems to be little reason that this would happen in a state which the Bulgarians dominate.

I agree. Both ERE and later Ottomans fed on the Balkans which in the period 7th - 20th century had over 50% Bulgarian population. Nobody can have Constantinople ( or extract the full advantage of it's geography ) without controlling the Balkans ( or at least vast part of Thrace )... And it seems the one holding Constantinople , needs to control the Balkans in order to dominate Anatolia, but not vice versa...
 
First up, 'christianic', 'crussaders', and 'furiosity' aren't words. I know this must seem a petty problem to you, but most of the other threads seem to avoid these mistakes. Second, go compare your scenarios to some of the better TLs on the board. Read 'Issac's Empire' and 'Raptor of Spain', especially the latter if you want to focus on Catholics. You know what they have in common? The ATL nations featured there had reverses at some point.

Same for Rome, the Mongols, and those other empires you keep talking about. Rome had Hanibbal, the Corruption of the Senate, various civil wars, and several bad emperors like Commodus or Caligula. The Mongols had the Japanese, the Mamluks, the Viatnemese and several family squabbles. Every major empire has civil wars, bad rulers, economic downturns and overextension as problems.

I've reread your posts (especially that large one with the map) and I've encountered none of these. Yes, you've establised that Kaloyan can turn eastern and southern Europe into his own personal polity, have a strong alliance with the Pope, exterminate the Greeks, turn the Knights Templar and Teutonic Knights and Cumans into an unstoppable military juggernaut that can do a 'Reverse-Genghis' and a 'Reverse-Black Plague' and turn China into a 'White setteler colony of the Kaloyanic Empire', but does it follow that it will happen?

Simple probability states that he or his sucessors will fail at one of those tasks, or even encounter accidents that cause a setback in their plans. Again, contrast this with 'Issac's Empire' or 'Raptor of Spain', or even actual history, in which reverses and crisises do happen to great empires. And no, don't reply to me saying that Kaloyan or his dynasty will always do the perfect thing to avert those problems, or that all the other nations will be idiots and sheep waiting to be swept up by the Bulgarian 'Manifest Destiny'.

Because that's not a proper TL. That is Draka.

PS: I'll probably get yelled at for this, and I'm sorry. It's just that I'm so fustrated that Mr. Rend violates everything I've observed from history and good ATLs, yet states that his vision is backed up by previous examples and historical forces.
 
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