Ataturk loses War of Independence

Say that the British and French did not abandon the Greeks and Armenians and that the Turkish War of Independence was a decisive loss for the Turks. What kinds of republics would arise? An independent Pontic Republic, an Armenian-Pontic confederation, or even a new "Greek Empire"?

800px-TreatyOfSevres_%28corrected%29.PNG
 

Keenir

Banned
Say that the British and French did not abandon the Greeks and Armenians and that the Turkish War of Independence was a decisive loss for the Turks. What kinds of republics would arise? An independent Pontic Republic, an Armenian-Pontic confederation, or even a new "Greek Empire"?

800px-TreatyOfSevres_%28corrected%29.PNG

Expect the Soviets to grab the Armenian area for themselves, like in OTL.

the French and Italians aren't going to let those areas go scot-free - look at North- and East-Africa for how they'll be handled.

and the Greeks will have a republic in name only, and an empire founded on death and international condemnation.
 

Spengler

Banned
I'd wonder if world war 2 would be worse I mean you'd have the turks probably gung ho on revanchism this time who would probably side with the axis wouldn't they?
 
Say that the British and French did not abandon the Greeks and Armenians and that the Turkish War of Independence was a decisive loss for the Turks. What kinds of republics would arise? An independent Pontic Republic, an Armenian-Pontic confederation, or even a new "Greek Empire"?

First off welcome!

You're fairly new so I don't blame you for not knowing that the dismemberment of Turkey following WWI is a bit of a dead horse topic on these forums. In fact your question is perfectly valid and was a fairly common one. If you want to read a more detailed discussion of what I'm about to explain use the Search function and be prepared to wade through a great deal of text.

Unfortunately the scenario you posit is fairly unrealistic for several reasons. Mainly due to the fact that Turkey at this point in time is MUCH more powerful and numerous than any of it's neighbors especially Armenia and Greece. Far from being defeated, it's armed forces following the war were probably among the strongest in the region at the end of WWI.

These facts necessitate the intervention of Britain and France to make anything resembling the Treaty of Sevres stick. However the problem lies in the fact that it's the inter-war period. Britain and France have bled themselves white in the fields of Flanders, both in terms of manpower and financial resources. They're in no way shape or form ready or willing to mount an expensive campaign on the other side of Europe for no perceived direct gain. Italy is much weaker at this time than either Britain or France, and is affected (to a lesser extent) by the same factors of war weariness and financial exhaustion. These factors would all contribute to the Western Allies' abandonment of the Turkish situation in the Inter-war period, and settling for their gains in the Middle east.

Further complicating matters is the fact that the territory ceded to Greece and Armenia was hardly uniformly Greek and Armenian and in fact had a large Turkish population that resisted their rule initially and would prove problematic in the long run.

In order to have a successful partition of the Ottoman Empire and to an extent Turkey, you're going to need a Point of Divergence much earlier than WWI, thus avoiding the conflict (as we know it) all together. Perhaps an option would be to have the 1st Balkan War somehow spiral out of control into a larger conflict, bringing in Britain, France, and Russia on the sides of the Baltic states against the Ottoman Empire and her allies in Austria-Hungary and Germany?

Even then, I'm not sure how long it would stick...
 

Eurofed

Banned
Perhaps an option would be to have the 1st Balkan War somehow spiral out of control into a larger conflict, bringing in Britain, France, and Russia on the sides of the Baltic states against the Ottoman Empire and her allies in Austria-Hungary and Germany?

Just a quip on the proposed PoD, since I discussed the scenario at some length sometime ago. A WWI spiraling out of the 1st Balkan War is quite doable.

However, it is bad news for the Entente, since it most likely involves Serbia getting its head swelled (more than usual, anyway) and refusing to quit when Austria and Italy warn it off Albania, perhaps because Russian diplomacy ITTL is experiencing a belligerant phase. Now, preventing Serbian expansion in the Western Balkans was one of the few issues on which Austrian and Italian strategic interests really aligned. Italy is totally going to stick with the Triple Alliance on this casus belli. Let's say that Serbia evades Austro-Italian ultimatum, both powers declare war, war expands to Germany, Russia, France, and Britain by an event chain much like OTL WWI. With German mediation, Italy and Turkey hastily bury the hatchet with a peace of compromise (most likely, Italy keeps Libya and returns Dodecaneso) and switch to being allies in the CPs coalition (Italy is promised Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunisia, and French Somaliland, Turkey is promised Cyprus, Aegean islands, gains in the Caucasus). Bulgaria most likely decides to backstab its temporary uneasy allies and long-time rival Serbia and lesser rival Greece and switches to the CPs like OTL. Romania sides with the Entente, hoping for gains from Austria and Bulgaria.

CPs: Germany, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Turkey, Bulgaria.
Entente: Britain, France, Russia, Serbia, Greece, Romania.

All from the start.

Serbia and Greece are encircled by the CPs and swiftly crushed, then the CPs armies turn and steamroll Romania. The Balkans are a CPs playground, France narrowly survives Schliffen but is soon hammered on by the German-Italians and starved for manpower by an overlong Western Front, which sucks in the bulk of British forces too, otherwise dispersed among many fronts. Russia staggers from the German-Austro-Turkish onslaught. Germany sees victory close in sight enough to drop unrestricted submarine warfare for good the first time neutral America makes unhappy rumors. I would bet my savings on the CPs in the scenario.
 
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In order to have a successful partition of the Ottoman Empire and to an extent Turkey, you're going to need a Point of Divergence much earlier than WWI, thus avoiding the conflict (as we know it) all together. Perhaps an option would be to have the 1st Balkan War somehow spiral out of control into a larger conflict, bringing in Britain, France, and Russia on the sides of the Baltic states against the Ottoman Empire and her allies in Austria-Hungary and Germany?

Even then, I'm not sure how long it would stick...

If I recall correctly there was a successful partition of the Ottoman Empire, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Egypt and Transjordan were created by its partition - but I know what you are driving at.

I do agree with you that Greece doesn't stand a chance in Asia Minor and the Allies can't really do anything to really back them up.
 
Bulgaria most likely decides to backstab its temporary uneasy allies and long-time rival Serbia and lesser rival Greece and switches to the CPs like OTL. Romania sides with the Entente, hoping for gains from Austria and Bulgaria.

Just a question (that i should have asked in the thread i think your talking about :D), why would Bulgaria have reason to backstab in this scenerio? Serbia looking towards Albania instead of Macedonia means that that isnt a problem for them. And Russia still has the illusion of a great and tough empire (reality might be different), if they already got most of the world fighting anyways then no international condemnation if they head towards Istanbul.

On the other hand, Serbia would still be screwed, as its too tired of fighting the Ottomans to fight against Austria. Their only hope would be Russia, and we know how well relying on Russia goes. :(
 
Also back on topic, is it possible for the Turks to get mauled even more in WW1 leaving them in a worse position in the war of independence?
 

Eurofed

Banned
Just a question (that i should have asked in the thread i think your talking about :D), why would Bulgaria have reason to backstab in this scenerio? Serbia looking towards Albania instead of Macedonia means that that isnt a problem for them. And Russia still has the illusion of a great and tough empire (reality might be different), if they already got most of the world fighting anyways then no international condemnation if they head towards Istanbul.

Well, I don't pretend to remember everything about the debate on the other thread, but I seem to remember that we came to the conclusion that Bulgaria would most likely always come to the side of the CPs in the end, for various reasons: at the end of the 1st Balkan War, they have their maximum claims vs. Turkey satisfied, if anything they can have residual ambitions towards Serbia (the accords with them gave Bulgaria a big chunk, but not all, of Vardar Macedonia) and Greece (lingering ambitions on Macedonia and Thrace). So if they switch to the CPs, they can always expect to gain more and get their conquests secured by a treaty with Turkey guaranteed by the other CPs, Moreover, among the Balka powers, they were the most pro-CPs. So even if they don't join the CPs immediately, we can expect that they switch to neutrality once they see the mess that Serbian ambitions have raised up and they have no reason to fight for. They later re-enter war as IOTL, for more or less the same reasons. Ditto for Romania. Greece is a wild card here, it could go any way, cling to the Entente or switch to neutrality, depending on how their political situation plays out. Serbia is of course at the center of the storm, the CPs hate its guts, it is stuck hoping in the fortunes of the Entente.

An aside note: although Britain is still going to make a huge propaganda ploy of the fictional "Rape of Belgium", American feelings are going to head more towards true neutrality to begin with ITTL, since Italo-Americans shall join German-Americans in pro-CP sympathies, and Pan-Slav Entente expansionistic ambitions shall look more clearly as the cause of the war.

On the other hand, Serbia would still be screwed, as its too tired of fighting the Ottomans to fight against Austria.

And Italy. They declared war on Serbia too from the start, so they are totally going to deploy an expeditionary corps in Albania and start fighting their way towards Belgrad.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
1. Armenia: Armenian claims ans Armenian strength are two different things. I do think Armenia would get some Anatolian territory, but far from that much, considering a) The Armenian were just a minority in many of these places before forbidden forum topic b)forbidden forum topic, the number of Armenians has diminished, c) problems controlling large territory while fighting Georgians, Azeris and Russians at the same time. I really don't see a Armenia with capacity to reach the Van lake or the Black Sea coast.
Also the USSR will expand into the Caucasus.

2. The British and French occupation zones will diminish in time, and Turkey will get part of that territory, by 1930 they would probably have gotten much of the international zone back too.

3. Italy, will they return territory or not? This will decide the future of Turkish politics. I can see Italy returning part of the territory in time, but will they leave altogether?

4. Kurds: Is it just me or do you also see a possible Turkish- Kurdish alliance forming??

5. Constantinople: will create clusterfucks

6. Greek Anatolian enclave: Nothing good would come out of it. I see much potential for ugly.

7. Future of Turkey: If Italy withdraw from Anatolia in the late 20s or early 30 you've just created Axis Turkey, if not you've created Allied Turkey as an active combatant in WW2.
 

Keenir

Banned
Also back on topic, is it possible for the Turks to get mauled even more in WW1 leaving them in a worse position in the war of independence?

the Turks had been fighting a war for 15 years by the start of the War of Independence - and they were keeping afloat.

a war that long would've flattened most countries. (or at least beggared them)

so, short of ISOTing Anatolia or striking it with an asteroid....no.
 
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