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At what point was it clear that that the Northern States (or Abolistists) and the South (or Slave Owners) were going to fight?

I have 3 main points
-1850: It was clear to anyone that this wasn't going to last, and the fact the war almost broke out shows this would be the last time a peace agreement would be made

-Bleeding Kansas: It had the pre version of fighting, and the country just took sides then decide to end it.

-Election of 1860: The fact that Lincoln wasn't on the Ballot in the south shows that they no longer cared about federal authority, and that they would do anything to keep their slaves. It was already too late, but this should have shown it was time to get ready
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