Battles that very VERY easily could have gone to the other sides had the Romans not massively lucked out.
At Cynoscephalae, Philip V's phalangites spanked the Romans on rough terrain. First atop a hill and then charging downhill. At Pydna, you have a whole confluence of factors like Perseus literally thinking the battle was already won and fucking off, and most importantly, a kind of engagement where the Macedonian array completely lost its cohesion. The phalanx completely disintegrated while it was chasing the Romans. Some parts were doing well and charged forward, thinking they were winning. Others were not doing so hot, and were left in the dust. This complete loss of cohesion meant that as the Romans rallied, the centurions were able to take advantage of that disintegration to defeat them piecemeal. Oh, and Perseus had completely failed to commit his cavalry. The Companions never even fought in the battle. We don't even know why, he just... didn't. He was gone, to offer sacrifices to the temple of Hercules. Because he thought he'd won.
They massively lucked out, but every time the phalanxes actually went against the Romans they got spanked hard. The issue was one of a few commanders not fully committing to their battles. And at Pydna, Cynoscephalae and Magnesia the Roman Legions got spanked by the Hellenistic Phalanxes. Make no mistake, the Romans were getting absolutely spanked. In all their encounters with it, the Romans never managed to beat the phalanx head on, at best they could delay it long enough that they could exploit the inferior Macedonian leadership they were faced with.
It's very easy to envision a world where the commanders were even just slightly better, and as a result kick the teeth in of the Romans. Especially with the Romans bleeding experienced manpower. Because at that point the Roman army was at its peak. Due to the sheer amount of experienced soldiers. Fresh out of the Second Punic War, hardened, and led by some of the best generals in its history. If they lose battles and manpower, the Romans aren't getting that momentum back.
I mean in the section you quoted the argument made is that when you don't look at it in a contextless statistical manner you see that the phalanx was in fact not completely antiquated or inherently inferior.But why, if all those Roman victories were more the product of chance than military superiority, is it that Rome won almost all major engagements against the Hellenistic phalanx, and not only once, but again and again?
Couldn't it be that the tactics used by the Hellenistic armies just weren't up to the task of decisively bearing the Roman legions?
Then, of course, the question becomes why the Hellenistic kingdoms didn't adapt do their new foe.
That is a really odd and pervasive notion that people have - that in pre-modern warfare, the leader of an army will have an advantage if he hangs back. It is also an assumption that rests upon our own modern biases, of command staff who are distant from the front and observe and issue commands through state of the art communication technology.in terms of leadership I agree the greeks had this idea that the comander (due to alexander ) commanded their troops personally in much cases it was a bad case , the romans did do this some times but most times the general or consul would be in the back in horse back to better observe the field.
That is why I attribute the victories of the Romans to the superior lower level leadership they displayed, as well as their resilience. This is also attributable to the fact that the Roman legions at the time of the wars against the Diadochoi were at a peak of excellence they would not reach again for a very long time, forged in the crucible of the Second Punic War. It was those armies that won Rome mastery over the Mediterranean, led by battle-hardened generals, veteran troops and their sons and grandsons.also like cynoscephalae showed the romans where much more free in a sense where a small portion of a legion could act alone was not seen in the phallanx since the romans had a lot of comand and control pushed down the lower ranks not seen in the greek world this also was seen at magenesia.
Roman luck, superior Roman leadership, bad Hellenic luck and leaders, high Roman resilience and institutional experience accumulated in the Second Punic War.But why, if all those Roman victories were more the product of chance than military superiority, is it that Rome won almost all major engagements against the Hellenistic phalanx, and not only once, but again and again?
Couldn't it be that the tactics used by the Hellenistic armies just weren't up to the task of decisively bearing the Roman legions?
Then, of course, the question becomes why the Hellenistic kingdoms didn't adapt do their new foe.
I voted for the end of the Second Punic War, not because I think that the Hellenistic states could not have defeated Rome after that (they could have, even if they generally did not) but because Rome was by then strategically too well placed to withstand eventual defeat.
It is also correct, I think, to state that the gravest military challenge Rome faced between Hannibal and Mithridates was not from the Seleucids or other Hellenistic states such as Macedonia, but from Iberian and Celtic peoples, mostly the Celtiberians and Lusitanians and, to a lesser extent, Ligurians and Cisalpine Gauls.
Even Carthage and Numidia remained hard nuts to crack for the legions. That, Rome overcame throwing seriously large resources at each of these targets.
In contrast, the Eastern realms before Mithridates were going for political accomodation, something that grew increasingly alien to the Roman elite mindset in this period. They were no pushovers, but in purely military terms, a few lost engagements were all it took for Rome to get its will largely enforced - no such luck for the Consuls in Spain.
After Hannibal, the Romans were in the "all in" approach. They could lose a battle (and they did) but they hardly had the political will to accept losing a war, and they had the means to behave accordingly. The Italian heartland was largely secure after Hannibal's final defeat, so that they could strategically afford to keep going at the Macedonians or Seleucids as long as it would have taken.
Of course, this was not unbreakable. I suppose that a sufficiently long string of defeats would have stopped them. But I doubt that there was any power, or combination of powers, likely to inflict such a string of defeats to them at any time in the second century BCE.
I mean in the section you quoted the argument made is that when you don't look at it in a contextless statistical manner you see that the phalanx was in fact not completely antiquated or inherently inferior.
Roman luck, superior Roman leadership, bad Hellenic luck and leaders, high Roman resilience and institutional experience accumulated in the Second Punic War.
Wars are not decided by which side has the 'superior' infantry formation, the 'best' weapons and so on.
People also tend to say this, but it most likely did not. We do not know much about the Roman army of the Regal period, but the key point is that our surviving primary sources claiming that the Romans used to fight in a phalanx are heavily influenced by Greek culture and education, and writing several centuries after the Regal period. Livy in particular claims that the Romans used to fight in a manner like the Macedonian phalanx, before they ditched that formation in the wars against the Samnites, which is utterly absurd for a large number of reasons (That said, it may perhaps be a garbled recollection of the Roman principes being equipped with long cavalry lances during the war against Pyrrhus).It wasn't completely antiquated, no, but it certainly showed signs of inferiority against the Roman legions (which itself had evolved out of a phalanx-like style of warfare).
Roman tactics in what regard? What particularly sets Roman tactics apart, making them uniquely suited here, aside from what I have outlined (That is, resilience due to the depth of the triplex acies, as well as room for initiative on the level of lower officers)? Can you explain to me?Didn't claim that it was inferior in every respect, nor that it was the only factor, but I think we shouldn't underestimate the advantages of Roman tactics either.
Did people really vote for the second punic war saying that it was literally inevitable for the Greeks, Anatolians and others to stop Roman expansion? Can people actually argue for such an extreme position? Inevitable means 0% not <50% or even <10%.