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At what point did it become unlikely for Britain to beat the US in an all out war, and at what point did it become likely that the US would beat Britain?

I’m defining “likely” as more than a 50/50 chance, “unlikely” as as less than 50/50 chance, “beat” as taking territory or forcing reparations or forcing significant net concessions from the loser, and “all out” as both sides taking the war seriously without any other ways distracting them.

So the questions are, at what point did it become a less than 50/50 chance of Britain imposing a peace on America in a war? And at what point did the US become strong enough that it had a greater than 50/50 chance of imposing a peace on Britain (which likely means taking parts of if not all of Canada)?
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