At the close of WW1, how could Italy have become a relevant military power?

SinghKing

Banned
What about a TL where Kurt Schuschnigg's policy of counterbalancing the German threat by aligning himself with Austria’s southern and eastern neighbours, the Kingdom of Italy under the fascist rule of Benito Mussolini and the Kingdom of Hungary, proves successful? IOTL, Austria's national identity had strong Catholic elements that were incorporated into the movement, by way of clerical authoritarian tendencies not found in Nazism, but which it shared with Italian Fascism. The predominance of the Christian Social Party (whose economic policies were based on the papal encyclical Rerum Novarum) was an Austrian phenomenon. Both Engelbert Dollfuss and his successor, Kurt Schuschnigg, turned to Austria's other fascist neighbour, Italy, for inspiration and support. The statist corporatism often referred to as Austrofascism bore much more resemblance to Italian Fascism than German National Socialism, and for his part, Benito Mussolini supported the independence of Austria, largely due to concern that Hitler would eventually press for the return of Italian territories once ruled by Austria.

However, IOTL Mussolini threw it all away for Germany's (unnecessary and irrelevant) support in the Second Italo-Abyssinian War; and after receiving a personal assurance from Hitler that Germany wouldn't seek territorial concessions from Italy, Mussolini reconciled his early falling-out with Hitler over Dollfuss' assassination by the Nazis, withdrew Italy's troops from the Brenner Pass (which Mussolini had deployed there in July 1935, with the explicit warning that a German move against Austria would result in war between Germany and Italy) and agreed to enter into a client relationship with Berlin by signing the 1937 Berlin–Rome Axis- which ended up becoming the basis for the Anti-Comintern Pact's development into OTL's Axis military alliance. So, WI, in an ATL, Mussolini decides that Hitler's moral support in the Second Italo-Ethiopian War isn't actually that important?

At this stage, Italy had effectively abandoned diplomatic relations with Germany, while turning to France in order to challenge Germany's intransigence by signing the Stresa Front agreement to protect Austrian independence. French and Italian military staff had discussed possible military cooperation at great length, involving a war with Germany should Hitler dare to attack Austria. And as late as May 1935, Mussolini spoke of his desire to destroy Hitler. Could it have been plausible for the Stresa Front to have developed into a military alliance between the French, Italians, Austrians, Hungarians and potentially the Yugoslavians (with the Stresa Front's survival maintained by ejecting the British, after the signing of the Anglo-German Naval Agreement without discussing it with any of their Stresa partners), standing firm against the Nazis' expansionism and aggression?

If the fall-out from Mussolini declaring his vocal opposition to Hitler's stated goal to conquer his homeland results in Hitler and Ribbentrop becoming bitter Romanophobes as a result (to borrow a quote from the diary of Italian Foreign Minister, in late 1937 IOTL, coming to hate Italy with all the "fury of a woman scorned"), then they'd almost certainly single out the Stresa Front as their primary enemy, and set out to build a global alliance system against them instead (with the greatest priority placed upon an alliance with Great Britain). And eventually, when Schuschnigg schedules a plebiscite on the issue of unification (along with the Stresa Front's 'Roman Alliance') in order to preserve Austria's independence from the Nazis, and Hitler subsequently invades after refusing to accept the results of the referendum, would this effectively kick off a very different WW2 (with the ejected British either standing back and adopting a stance as neutral observers at the outset of TTL's WW2, or supporting the Germans, potentially even joining the Anti-Comintern Pact in Italy's stead)?
 
While enforcement of the sanctions was not strict as one may think, importing coal and other resources from Germany was fundamental to Italy.

Italian territorial claims and political aspirations were clashing with UK and France; unless the King and Mussolini choose to direct their focus on other goals (a fine idea I recently read was for example to improve and strengthen infrastructures and economy of Libya and AOI) they were bound to find themselves against one or both of those empires.
 

SinghKing

Banned
While enforcement of the sanctions was not strict as one may think, importing coal and other resources from Germany was fundamental to Italy.

Italian territorial claims and political aspirations were clashing with UK and France; unless the King and Mussolini choose to direct their focus on other goals (a fine idea I recently read was for example to improve and strengthen infrastructures and economy of Libya and AOI) they were bound to find themselves against one or both of those empires.

Eh? :confused: So, what was the Hoare–Laval Pact all about then? And is it so inconceivable for the Stresa Front to form the basis for the Allied Powers of WW2 in an ATL? As for other goals; well, the Austrian (and Hungarian, and Croatian) fascist governments were all far more amenable to the Italians that they were to the Nazis at this early stage. Mussolini can't pick a much bigger goal to focus upon than re-establishing his own Holy Roman Empire (as opposed to merely standing aside and allowing Hitler to take it for himself); and if Nazi Germany is the aggressor in such a conflict (erupting over the Nazi invasion of Austria, with Italy and the other members of the Stresa Front fighting against them in the name of freedom), he may well have a plausible chance of actually getting it- at least, through 'soft' means, via diplomacy, mutual cooperation and federalisation, especially in the immediate aftermath of the conflict. ITTL, Fascism itself wouldn't be wholly discredited by WW2, just Nazism; and post-war, it's not inconceivable that TTL's equivalent of the EEC (precursor to EU) could be formed as the realization of Mussolini's proposed Latin Bloc...
 
Last edited:
The problem is that the Regime, once sanctions were imposed, started roaring against UK & France and claiming -among the others- Corsica, Tunisia and Djibouti from Paris & Malta, Suez and Somaliland from London; we can have a hell of a diplomatic corps but there's no way that Allies left us parts of their metropolitan soil or world-class strategic assets.
 
The problem is that the Regime, once sanctions were imposed, started roaring against UK & France and claiming -among the others- Corsica, Tunisia and Djibouti from Paris & Malta, Suez and Somaliland from London; we can have a hell of a diplomatic corps but there's no way that Allies left us parts of their metropolitan soil or world-class strategic assets.

What if they asked for greater influence in the Danube basin.
 
Four more divisions are not enough to take Leningrad, and even if they do take it, the Germans then have to make some effort in feeding the Million+ Civilians in the area, something they really didn't want to do in OTL

September 22: Hitler issues Directive No. 1601 ordering "St. Petersburg must be erased from the face of the Earth" and "we have no interest in saving lives of civilian population"

Leningrad wouldn't end up being destroyed I suspect, but the civilians wouldn't have been fed either. Well the Finns would probably garrisoned it and make at least some limited effort.
 

marathag

Banned
Leningrad wouldn't end up being destroyed I suspect, but the civilians wouldn't have been fed either. Well the Finns would probably garrisoned it and make at least some limited effort.

Finns wanted no part of Leningrad: won't be able to foist that tar baby onto them.

No, if somehow Rommel breaks thru and somehow takes over Leningrad befor the siege really starts, The Nazis are stuck with it.

Taking a city mostly intact, filled with refugees, be kind of hard to hide an impromptu Carthage, don't you think?

In 1941, World opinion still matters.
 
Finns wanted no part of Leningrad: won't be able to foist that tar baby onto them.

No, if somehow Rommel breaks thru and somehow takes over Leningrad befor the siege really starts, The Nazis are stuck with it.

Taking a city mostly intact, filled with refugees, be kind of hard to hide an impromptu Carthage, don't you think?

In 1941, World opinion still matters.

Orders to level the city would be ignored as the Heer moves its forces toward Moscow.

Hitler could order whatever he wanted it was up to the Army or the SS to carry them out. Here the army is lacking on resources as it is and isn't going to spend several weeks destroying a city they have already taken even under an amoral general like Manstein.

The SS don't have the time or resources at this point in time unless they break out the Nerve Gas. In the end Hitler would lose interest in Leningrad once its taken and focus on 'destroying Moscow'.

The population is screwed though because of a lack of food.
 

SinghKing

Banned
The problem is that the Regime, once sanctions were imposed, started roaring against UK & France and claiming -among the others- Corsica, Tunisia and Djibouti from Paris & Malta, Suez and Somaliland from London; we can have a hell of a diplomatic corps but there's no way that Allies left us parts of their metropolitan soil or world-class strategic assets.

The important part- once sanctions were imposed. And those sanctions were only imposed upon Italy by the UK and France after the swift collapse of the Stresa Front Agreement IOTL; after Britain signed the Anglo-German Naval Agreement without first informing him of its plans, reneging on the Final Declaration of the Stresa Conference. Prior to this, Mussolini had held back on his invasion plans, as Abyssinia bordered French and British Somaliland and he didn't want to anger his allies. However, he felt Britain had betrayed him, and this removed all doubts he had regarding the invasion. He also believed that Britain's actions had ended the conditions that were agreed in the Stresa Front, and that by the same token that the British had been allowed to sign the Anglo-German Naval Agreement without recrimination in spite of their neglecting to consult either of the other Stresa Front members, Italy presumedly now had free rein to invade Abysinnia without the need to consult either the British or the French first.

It was the failure of the Stresa Front which formed the turning point, and which led to Italy drifting away from Britain and France, away from the Allied camp, and into the camp of Hitler's Nazi Germany and their as-yet unborn Anti-Comintern Pact. And this is probably the turning point. We all know how it ends when Mussolini's Italy decides to pick the Nazi option- but if Mussolini and Italy stick with the Allies instead (which, in the event that the Anglo-German Naval Agreement is still signed ITTL, would be easiest to achieve if Britain is suspended or ejected from the Stresa Front in the immediate aftermath), then an ending in which Mussolini's dream of a Latin Bloc comes to fruition is very much on the cards.

If the Allies still emerge victorious ITTL (with war arguably even more inevitable ITTL than IOTL, since the purpose of the Stresa Front was to protect Austria's independence, and Hitler's never going to stand down in his efforts to annex Austria), then France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Hungary, Croatia and the Vatican are the likeliest candidates to become the original members of the EEC, with Rome becoming the likeliest de-facto capital of the European Union (perhaps with Vienna as a close second). If Italy choose the Allied path at this juncture, they could perhaps become the single most relevant military power in defining the outcome of WW2 ITTL.
 
Last edited:
Top