Assuming Soviet Dominance in Europe, do the Allies turn to Asia/Africa?

Let's say D-Day fails, and the Soviet Union manages to penetrate into Northern Italy, Benelux, and France after Germany as well as more of the Balkans and Denmark/Norway; installing puppet regimes and "border adjustments" along the way

Would this cause the remaining Allies to seize colonies such as French Africa and Indonesia, and install friendly regimes to prevent any attempt at Soviet interference? Would it encourage a much more active role in any Vietnamese uprisings, or full-fledged commitment to the Chinese Civil War?
 
I don’t know if “Free France” could keep its legitimacy as it lost more and more of its land to decolonization and revolts
 
If France is "liberated" by the Soviets, then the Free French government is going to be replaced by a communist French government in Paris and de Gaulle's government remains based in Algiers where some kind of French West African union is established where natives are most likely allowed equal rights and representation. The same might for the rest of the French empire beyond west Africa, although French Indochina might see more Allied troops participating in putting down Vietnamese revolts or convincing the French to take more of a "carrot and stick" approach. As for the Chinese Civil War, there's obviously going to be more support from the western Allies for Chiang Kai-Shek and the Kuomintang in battling against the Chinese Communist troops as China is now an important frontier/buffer to communist expansion throughout Southeast Asia and/or the Pacific. There's going to be much more Anglo-American support for the colonial powers in exile if Africa and/or Asia are seen as important assets preventing the expansion of communism throughout the world.

King Christian X, the Danish Royal Family and the Danish government might go into exile in Allied-occupied Iceland where the Danish government takes over with whatever's left of the Danish Armed Forces. The same might go for any smaller western European countries occupied by the Soviet Union i.e. the Dutch going into exile in the DEI and the Belgians in the Congo.
 
de Gaulle's government remains based in Algiers where some kind of French West African union is established where natives are most likely allowed equal rights and representation. The same might for the rest of the French empire beyond west Africa, although French Indochina might see more Allied troops participating in putting down Vietnamese revolts or convincing the French to take more of a "carrot and stick" approach.
No way in hell would Free France give the natives equal representation. This would give them the overwhelming majority in an Democratic election along with heavily pissing off the Pied Noir and the military likely to the point of coup. Its far more likely they would just give all their colonies independence expect for Algeria which would turn into North African apartheid or just try to keep them until the mainland is retaken.
 
Let's say D-Day fails, and the Soviet Union manages to penetrate into Northern Italy, Benelux, and France after Germany as well as more of the Balkans and Denmark/Norway; installing puppet regimes and "border adjustments" along the way

Would this cause the remaining Allies to seize colonies such as French Africa and Indonesia, and install friendly regimes to prevent any attempt at Soviet interference? Would it encourage a much more active role in any Vietnamese uprisings, or full-fledged commitment to the Chinese Civil War?
If, (for whatever reason) the Western Allies decide to cancel or call-off the landings in Northern France, that means more troops and equipment for the Italian theatre. If I recall correctly it was one of the reasons Churchill gave in his WW2 memoirs for wanting to go into Italy - so that if the Germans were too strong in France, the Western Allies could carry on with increasing vigour in Italy.
 
No way in hell would Free France give the natives equal representation. This would give them the overwhelming majority in an Democratic election along with heavily pissing off the Pied Noir and the military likely to the point of coup. Its far more likely they would just give all their colonies independence expect for Algeria which would turn into North African apartheid or just try to keep them until the mainland is retaken.
Hmm, you're most likely right now that I think about. Another thing is that Algeria's French population will increase when the Soviets establish a puppet government in Paris so perhaps elections are restricted to the European populace but I would assume that the natives would be given some degree of increased autonomy and rights so as not to provoke a revolt. Are there any colonies they'd hold onto? Would there be any equal representation in the government for the native Algerians eventually if it seemed as the French government wasn't going to return to Paris?
 
Another thing is that Algeria's French population will increase when the Soviets establish a puppet government in Paris
It still won't be enough for a white majority

but I would assume that the natives would be given some degree of increased autonomy and rights so as not to provoke a revolt.
Won't happen especially in Algeria and doing so would lead to the expectation of more rights

Are there any colonies they'd hold onto?
assuming they won't go for the whole we need keep everything for legitimacy. Less then otl as proportion of whites is far less.

Would there be any equal representation in the government for the native Algerians eventually if it seemed as the French government wasn't going to return to Paris?

They would only do so once they have given up any claims to the mainland at which point it wouldn't be Free France just Algeria with a large French population.
 
Asia is an excellent target for the Allies: containment, large market, resources, population, etc. Africa will remain a proxy battlefield as it's easier (and cheaper) to support the indigenous population rather than investing blood and treasure.
 
What if all French settlers from all over their colonial empire were moved to Algeria? How many of them would there be in Algeria??
I'm not sure of an exact number but Algeria was the only French settler colony with the rest of the empire having a very small number of whites. You would need around 7 million French from the mainland to get a majority of the population and more if you want a large majority .
 
If, (for whatever reason) the Western Allies decide to cancel or call-off the landings in Northern France, that means more troops and equipment for the Italian theatre. If I recall correctly it was one of the reasons Churchill gave in his WW2 memoirs for wanting to go into Italy - so that if the Germans were too strong in France, the Western Allies could carry on with increasing vigour in Italy.

This could lead to the interesting scenario where Soviet armies are sweeping across the top of the Allied advance, and make somewhere like Lombardy a flashpoint, with Soviet-supporting Partisans holding out for Soviet "liberation" rather than Western Allies one.

It could also see Kesselring and Wolff do a deal with the Western Allies if it looks like they are going to be marooned from a collapsing Germany, or caught between two stools
 
A overlooked point is that Spain and Portugal, under serious Fascist, or fascist-like, Dictatorship will be a serious recipient for support from USA in Europe, as the already lost, all other points in Europe, except Maybe Greece and Italy, to the CCCP, so the countries get more industrialized as a forward operation base in case of a Conflict
 
Are we convinced Stalin is even going to try to hold onto France in such a scenario? As ruthless as he was he didn't absolutely press negotiations to their limits IOTL, withdrawing from the Finnmark, allowing democracy in Finland, allowing for an ostensibly neutral Austria, and even initially pulling back in Greece.

Not that I'm saying the map would be the same. He's got a good argument for a very different kind of settlement on Germany, as well as whatever parts of Italy he can grab hold of. Forget neutral Austria and likely Greece (in the absence of a new landing there). I'm a little less certain on the Benelux countries, as they technically have legit recognized governments but are definitely minor players and easier to steamroll. And I really don't know what would happen to Germany, is the partition still the favored scenario? (Just with a much more favorable Soviet settlement?) Or do we go the "disarmed and neutral" route?

Still, even if the Western Allies retain France, parts of Italy, and a smaller bit of Germany, they're going to want to project strength elsewhere. Do we think they can manage it in China, or is China lost? Perhaps a negotiated split here? Korea seems like small enough potatoes that they can take it all.

I think doubling down on Iran and Turkey seems likely.
 
If D-Day fails, the Allies could still pump massive resources into Italy, the Balkans, and even Southern France. No way do the Soviets get into Northern Italy.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Let's say D-Day fails, and the Soviet Union manages to penetrate into Northern Italy, Benelux, and France after Germany as well as more of the Balkans and Denmark/Norway; installing puppet regimes and "border adjustments" along the way

Would this cause the remaining Allies to seize colonies such as French Africa and Indonesia, and install friendly regimes to prevent any attempt at Soviet interference? Would it encourage a much more active role in any Vietnamese uprisings, or full-fledged commitment to the Chinese Civil War?
almost definitely imo, especially since a Communist Europe might lead the USSR to be just as if not more assertive in Asia as otl, the US basically started proping up anti-Communist regimes all over Asia/Africa starting with the Korean War all it would take is for the US to start doing so a few years earlier
 
How can the Soviets take France before Germany falls?
After Berlin would fall and Hitler would blow his brains out, the remaining German government would put a new leader in charge to lead France and western Germany until the soviets took that. I do think there would be a lot of revolts in France after Hitler died though, but the French resistance was heavily communist so that still plays into the Soviet hands
 

Wallet

Banned
Without a Allied invasion of France, Hitler would send more and more German troops to halt the Soviet advance.

By the time the Soviets reach the German border, it’s very likely that all German troops would leave France to defend the motherland.

Once the Soviets take Berlin, the Allies should be able to land in France with little resistance. The French resistance could probably liberate the country themselves.

That’s why a Warsaw Pact that is all of Europe is unrealistic
 
Could Italy be partioned?

I think in theory this makes total sense. The facts on the ground would have to support it- i.e. the Soviets have troops in the north and the Allies haven't agreed to recognize the new government yet (the problem is getting there). But in terms of geopolitics there's just as much argument to partition Italy as Germany.
 
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