Assuming No European Contact, What is the Fate of the Aztecs?

@ar-pharazon

The Maya kingdom of Tiho was already reestablishing a centralized state when the Spaniards fucked everything up. In a way, though, Tiho still succeeded; the city is just called Merida now.

I’m not sure utilitarian metallurgy will catch on. Metallurgy itself was already practiced throughout Mesoamerica in the form of copper, but obsidian is already there, and the association between metal and the divine might be too strong.

The interesting question is what happens after. Postclassic Mesoamerica was moving towards 1) agricultural intensification, 2) extensive commercialization at all levels, and 3) cultural, economic, and political unification of the region via the propagation of Central Mexican styles and ideologies, the growth of long-distance trade, and the rise of the Aztecs, the most powerful empire ever seen in Mexico.

This suggests that Mesoamerica could conceivably have been unified into a single Central Mexico-based empire absent European intrusion.
 

ar-pharazon

Banned
@ar-pharazon

The Maya kingdom of Tiho was already reestablishing a centralized state when the Spaniards fucked everything up. In a way, though, Tiho still succeeded; the city is just called Merida now.

I’m not sure utilitarian metallurgy will catch on. Metallurgy itself was already practiced throughout Mesoamerica in the form of copper, but obsidian is already there, and the association between metal and the divine might be too strong.

The interesting question is what happens after. Postclassic Mesoamerica was moving towards 1) agricultural intensification, 2) extensive commercialization at all levels, and 3) cultural, economic, and political unification of the region via the propagation of Central Mexican styles and ideologies, the growth of long-distance trade, and the rise of the Aztecs, the most powerful empire ever seen in Mexico.

This suggests that Mesoamerica could conceivably have been unified into a single Central Mexico-based empire absent European intrusion.
I just outlined one scenario not a sure fire prediction.
 
The Aztecs would have continued expanding in all directions though the huaxtecs, Tarascans, Mixtecs, and chichimeca would have made Aztec conquests and raids an increasingly bloody and difficult affair with perhaps at least one of their rivals halting their expansion.
The Huastecs as well as most the Mixtecs were already vassals or tributaries of the Aztecs by this time. The Tarascans are the next big enemy of the Aztec Triple Alliance but the Chichimecs don't really have anything the Aztecs would want in addition to being way far north.
As I understand at this time-the maya were divided into various city states and not unified either directly or any sort of hegemonic system.
The Maya were always divided into various city states and kingdoms, nothing different about that in the Postclassic.
Eventual contact would have occurred and the Aztecs would have been stretching their limits-both the logistics and climate would have made Aztec incursions increasingly difficult and resource intensive. Same with the northern Mexican desert-the chichimecs fought the Spanish to a standstill and were not subdued militarily after all but through church efforts. So Aztecs forays north would be met with hard resistance and a lot of dead Aztecs.
Contact between the Aztecs and Maya was already a thing. The western Tzotzil and Tzeltal Maya exported goods (particularly valuable quetzal feathers) to Tenochtitlan and the Aztecs conducted trade with the more easterly Maya states through the tradeposts on the island of Xicalango.
 
They didn't have any real beasts of burden so the wheel was basically useless anyway-except as children's toys.
big wagons would be out, but handcarts/wheelbarrows would be useful... provided there were decent roads. It's known that the Incas had a pretty good network of paths and roads... how about the Aztecs?
 

ar-pharazon

Banned
big wagons would be out, but handcarts/wheelbarrows would be useful... provided there were decent roads. It's known that the Incas had a pretty good network of paths and roads... how about the Aztecs?
The nature of the Aztec empire was hegemonic-meaning the tribes and peoples within the empire were independent at least for themselves-so long as they provided tribute, taxes, and other resources to the Aztecs themselves.

In this sort of empire building roads isn't possible or is at least a lot harder
 
The Aztecs were merely the last to control the central Mexico basin in a long line of empires, they eventually get replaced by someone else.
 
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Eventually collapse, they either have a slave revolt or run out of sacrifices because they depopulate much of the region and turn on one another. Or a natural disaster wipes them out.

As a percent of population, more people died in Christian witch trials than Aztec human sacrifices, but I doubt anyone would suggest that witch trials depopulated Europe.
 
What Arcvalons said. It's my understanding that empires in that region didn't last very long. There would be a new empire with somebody else in charge after them, and another empire after that, and the Aztecs would be just another tribe in the empire. I don't know how different the next several empires would be.
 
What Arcvalons said. It's my understanding that empires in that region didn't last very long. There would be a new empire with somebody else in charge after them, and another empire after that, and the Aztecs would be just another tribe in the empire. I don't know how different the next several empires would be.

In terms of what their long lasting impact may be, perhaps the city of Tenochtitlan. I think it was in a relatively central location and it was visually stunning. Perhaps the following Empires retain it as their capital. In that case we might see a tend towards centralisation.
 
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