Assassination of Jozef Pilsudski and a Dmowski Poland

Hnau

Banned
What I'd really like to discuss is how the Second Polish Republic would function under Roman Dmowski. He was a right-wing, anti-semitic, Polish nationalist who fought for an ethnically and religiously homogenous state, opposing the policies of Jozef Pilsudski.

How does one get him into power? There's numerous PODs, particularily when he handed in his resignation just before the August 13 Battle of Warsaw, or before that on July 12 when there was a vote of no-confidence against him due to the incoming Soviet offensive. Or how about earlier, when a coup by Dmowski's faction, the National Democrats, was launched to topple the Pilsudski government? Or when Paderewski prevented Dmowski from bringing in the Blue Army to start a civil war in Poland?

There are numerous PODs, but it is unlikely that Dmowski would prevent the USSR from toppling the Polish Republic in their rampage towards Germany. Pilsudski was largely responsible for the Miracle at the Vistula, so we need one after that point.

I present the assassination attempt on Jozef Pilsudski's life on September 25, 1921 by Ukrainian independence activist Stepan Fedak. The bullet missed his head by a hair, Pilsudski reported. So what if it had hit?

What I posit now is a scenario in which Dmowski and the National Democrats take power, but please comment on whether you think its plausible, or whether you think something else would happen with this POD.

With the death of Pilsudski an immediate presidential election takes place. However, Pilsudski has not built up the influence of Gabriel Narutowicz, and the assassination by a Ukrainian increases anti-minority sentiments. As such, Roman Dmowski is voted to be the new President, even though he explicity had the 1921 Constitution curb the powers of the executive branch to limit Pilsudski. The National Democrats have taken power.

Furthermore, I could see Dmowski blaming all of Poland's problems (the hyperinflation it would experience from the 1920s on) on the minorities. This could keep him in power. Anti-semitic practices could emerge, as did in Poland in the mid-to-late 1930s, as Dmowski wanted to deport all but the entirety of the Polish Jew population. While cruel, I am imagining a much larger Jewish population leaving for the United States, Israel, and elsewhere, perhaps even Germany where they might cause the country to become anti-semitic faster because of their presence (useful in that it might get the attention of the Allies sooner, as bad as it sounds). Dmowski could force the Jews out of Poland during the 1920s, where they might have a chance to find safety, instead of waiting around until the Holocaust. So you see, this is kind of a 'better' situation for them.

Comments?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Dmowski was also very Germanophobic, and considered Nazi Germany a part of a wider Jewish conspiracy. An earlier confrontation between Poland and Germany possible.
 
The important issues in this kind of scenario are:
1. Can Endecja hope to achieve and sustain stability in Sejm? Without that they can't hold power and only Pilsudski had enough prestige to curb and later overthrow the Sejm. So there is a chance that they would be forced to work within the parliamentary framework, with only small modifications to the March Constitution (think August Novelization). If however Dmowski wishes (or in his way of thinking "is forced to") to rule as an autocrat we are looking at much more bloody scenario that OTL May Coup. Bordering on Civil War.
2. Roman Dmowski had a clear hierarchy of enemies of Poland. In his view it was Germany that was the most dangerous, so I could easily see some actions in Danzig, Silesia and East Prussia as well as more vigorous anti-German diplomacy and alliance-building. On the other hand Russia was not seen as such a significant opponent. Depending at the exact timing Dmowski could even strongly support the remnant White/Tsarist/Antibolskevik forces. But in 1921 it was slightly too late for that.
3. We would definitely see more and better coordinated attempts of polonization of Ukrainians and Belarussians. And supposing that there is a stable minority policy (which wasn't the case in OTL) it could have achieved better results. As for potential expansionism I don't really know whether Dmowski would accept loosing the some eastern parts of Poland to get rid of the minorities or on contrary would wish to expand Polish borders as much as possible.
4. (My time at internet cafe is expiring. More to come in a few days.)
 

Nietzsche

Banned
Well, I'm sure of one thing: should WW2 play out similar to OTL in any way, Poland is much less a "victim" and more of a "Two bastards against each other".
 
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