Assassination of Henry IV of France in 1594?

On December 27th 1594 Jean Chatel tried and nearly killed king Henry IV but he the king got away with a small cut. Let's say he kill Henry. At the time the French religion wars seemed to have been coming to an end but ITTL the situation would have been radically altered.
Since Henry had no heir, next in line was Henri, Prince of Conde. He was just 6 years old, his mother, Charlotte de la Tremoille was a Huguenot and imprisoned on the charges of murdering her husband and the boy Henri was rumoured to be bastard and was only acknowledged in 1596. Maybe his acknowledgement could be arranged ITTL and he can be raised a Catholic. The problem is he would need a regent, but he had two uncles: Francois of Conti and Charles of Soissons. They both seemed to have been capable and although Francois could claim the crown and dismiss Henri's rights he doesn't seem that ambitious. I'm thinking it would maybe be more interesting if he acts as Lieutenant-General and Regent for Henry V. The question is, if his uncles put him forward could he gather enough support? Both Francois and Charles were against the Catholic League and fought for Henry IV but they were Catholics themselves. I'm guessing the Protestants and the ultra-Catholics would both dislike the choice of Conde for a king, as well as some nobles who would argue Henri's legitimacy. I'm asking anyone that has better knowledge of the period could there be a moderate faction that would develop around him and be strong enough to secure his succession?
Another interesting issued would be the succession in Navarre. Henry IV had one sister Catherine that would inherit the crown. IOTL she married Henry of Lorraine because she was forced to but she was actually in love with Charles de Soissons who is the King's uncle ITTL. If that marriage can ba arranged as a way to secure a truce between the Protestants and the Catholics then the religion wars actually could end quickly. However, she was a little old by then and probably couldn't give birth to an heir.
And also, what would the situation in France look like. Could peace finally be restored without the capable leadership of Henry IV? And what would happen on the international stage?
 
The Ultras might dislike Condé, BUT he's still at an age where he hasn't had much religious tuition - and if he becomes king of France, any Protestant tutors might go au revoir. So, he can still become a Catholic (probably will).

The legitimacy issue might be a concern though. And I'm not sure that any Catholic would want a Protestant Queen-Regent. The Protestants won't want her due to the dubious legitimacy of her son (and her presence being a reminder of that). So Conti most likely gets appointed regent, and perhaps his second wife ends up as future queen (as a way of pacifying the Guises). The cardinal de Bourbon likewise died in 1594, so I can't see him playing a big role.

A marriage between the comte de Soissons and Catherine of Navarre might go through (he's 28, she 35). Maybe one child if they're lucky - but then again, Anne of Austria was 38 when Louis XIV was born; Isabel Clara Eugenia 39 when the first of her three children was born (41 with the last); and Marguerite de Valois, duchess of Savoy was 39, so it's not impossible.

Either way, Navarre's independence is secure for another generation at least (if Catherine has no kids, who inherits it? The de Rohans?). Although if Catherine only has a daughter, provided the age-gap isn't too big, Henri V's marrying a Navarrese infanta. Otherwise he might marry a Habsburg/Savoy princess. France won't accept a Protestant queen, AFAIK.

Although, interestigly enough, Henri V would have more reason to get involved in the Netherlands (his sister might not marry the Prince of Orange here (so she's still up for grabs)), but the Nassaus aren't just allies, but extended family - through his mother, whose brother married a Nassauvian princess.

That's all I've got for now.

Cool POD BTW
 
I wanted to say that I really enjoyed this PoD as well. I really hadn't given any thought at all to something like this occuring and think that there are so many possibilities for interesting developments here. I do wonder if we might see the Wars of Religion start up again,Henri IV being considered a short interlude in the larger conflict. An ongoing War of Religion in the early 1600s could have a lot of interesting implications.
 
OK, so *Henry V marries Marguerite de Lorraine to secure the alliance with them and Catherine of Navarre marries Charles of Soissons to secure peace with Navarre. If there are still some opposing forces the regent, who actually opposed the Catholic League could make some concessions to the Protestants to prevent further conflicts and use the general war-weariness to his side. He could gather enough troops to quell any remaining resistance. There is still the quedtion of Mercoeur who is in Brittany? What about him? Catherine's marriage to Soissons leaves the Duke of Lorraine open for a possible alliance with Austria. If Catherine dies childless Rohans are in theory the next in line to inherit Navarre. If the Catholic become strong in Paris and protestant Rohans claim Navarre could Paris oppose them and could this be a reason for a new war? And finally, what's gonna happen with Eleonore, Henri's sister? Will her OTL marriage still happen or will a better deal be sought as she is the King's sister now?
 
At the time the French religion wars seemed to have been coming to an end but ITTL the situation would have been radically altered.
Not that much, actually : Henri III build up a lot of the base for a resolving peace that Henri IV, skillfully, used. We might see some troubles and infighting, but the worst of the French Wars of Religions are probably past at this point.
But in 1594, Henri IV didn't really parachieved his campaigns against the remains of the League, and most of his own support was relatively recent : you'll have a succession crisis (or, rather, the continuation of the IOTL succession crisis) which would certainly delay the pacification of France by a decade IMO, think of a mix between early Henri IV and early Louis XIII's reigns.

Since Henry had no heir, next in line was Henri, Prince of Conde.
As you said, Henri de Bourbon-Condé is the likely heir there. Fortunatly, Henri IV was about to acknowledge him as a legitimate prince and to have him educated at the court, as a Catholic prince.
Unfortunatly, he was too really young and his mother still in prison (altough it's really likely that, like IOTL, she would remain there, probably aquitted earlier than IOTL actually). We're really likely to see a whole network of tutors and lieutenant-généraux, that would likely not be part of his father's own network (mostly because of its Calvinism). The young king is certain to be the center of a lot of intrigues. But yes, François de Conti seems a likely lieutenant-général, at least in a first time would it be because he was Catholic, a politique, and well considered by the nobility.

Eventually François de Conti will still be the likely heir of *Henri V, who due to his health (and due to being the center of several interests) is not bound to make it to adultwood. If we end up with *François III, the question of his own succession would be open, especially if he still dies childless (which is relatively plausible), opening another era of succession-to-brother.

As for the League, especially with the death of the Cardinal de Bourbon, they're let without a viable candidate : they would remain for longer, but probably root on their feet as they becomes politically irrelevant (probably replaced as trouble makers by the princely houses).
 
I agree that Henri's death is very likely. And if Francois de Conti dies childless he is inherited by Charles de Soissons who needs another queen after Catherine of Navarre dies since I think she won't have any children. Who would represent the opposition to the Conde family during this period?
 
I agree that Henri's death is very likely.
Well, "very likely" isn't what I would have said : he did survived infancy while being relatively neglected IOTL, so he still have fair chances as a royal kid. But stress, misfortune and all are still there, as all you need is a bad cold.

Who would represent the opposition to the Conde family during this period?
Well, mostly the remnants of the Ligue and the pro-Spain factions : but as said above, they would be a bit clueless about what do except holding what they have and supporting Spain. I would tend to think that François de Conti would be smart enough to give concessions if he's busy strengthening his nephew's legitimacy, especially as the Ligue attempted to make it an alternative candidate against Henri IV historically.
I think the opposition would be relatively similar to what existed against Henri IV, to be honest* : less a strong opposition with clear goals, than a general pro-Spain faction, mostly fed by ultra-catholics from one hand, and discontent part of the nobility essentially driven by sheer opportunism.
Nothing really formal, but the usual suspect would be ambitious nobles thinking they didn't get enough in exchange from their support or concessions : the usual suspects would be Charles d'Angoulême, Nogaret, Henri de la Tour d'Auvergne, Charles de Gontaut-Biron.

*I often said, and still thinks, that Henri III is one of the most underrated kings of France (along with his brother Charles IX or Jean II) : while he was far from having only qualities, he had a clear view of what were the royal interests in a troubled period, and built (along with his mother) what allowed Bourbon to have a relatively easy succession, relatively to the situation of course.
 
Now, for what matter international geopolitics, still assuming something akin to what happened in the early XVIIth century...

Spain would probably know a slower decline : François de Conti, as regent and as possible king, would not be a friend of Habsburgs, but without the resoluted authority of Henri IV, at least in a first time it would be hard, and probably perillous, to have an equivalent to Henri IV's preparation for war (giving it cost Henri IV his very life IOTL, François could fall easily, especially as regent).
For the time being, France would probably keep a low profile internationally-wise, at least until the royal power gets reinforced before a largely autonomous nobility; especially as the pro-Protestant diplomacy of Henri IV would get butterflied, at least partially. Interestingly, it could also mean a lesser participation of France in the early Thirty Years War due to a lesser interest in the court to support Habsburgs (mostly as fear of too much monarchical build-up), meaning a possible earlier rise of state servents as Richelieu.

French colonial policy might be really changed ITTL, altough if it's still to happen roughly as IOTL, I'm not sure where it should take place other than Canada : Spain would guard as jealously Carribean basin as it did IOTL, after all. But maybe, in this case, that IOTL Maritimes and Maine would have a stronger focus than IOTL. In the best outcome (which I don't find especially likely) maybe something about France Equinoxale (more or less French Guiana on steroids). Conversly, we could end up with a more limited French presence in Americas, everything depends on how quick the royal authority is restored.

The duke of Savoy would likely try to make an attempt at taking over the Marquisate of Saluçes : I don't think he would be able to do so successfully, especially as the pope would frown upon an action that would antagonize France and giving his own capacities. But any French success comparable to IOTL could be bogged down, less militarily than diplomatically with a possible reduced advance to the Northern-Western Alps.

Eventually, the french recovering could end up being less tied to the person of Henri IV, and therefore being half-aborted after his assassination (and basically waiting Louis XIII's own taking over), but if more slow-paced, stronger in the first half of the XVIIth century.
 
I've been looking around a bit and found that Henry IV went that down with a fever in October 1598 due to a bladder inflammation and nearly died but recovered. Really, it's a wonder the guy survived this long next to this and all the battles and assassination attempts. Maybe this is a better POD seeing as Conde's succession is secure and other things go down like we discussed earlier, except for the marriage of Catherine of Navarre. Who does Marie de Medici marry now and can Conde's uncles receive some dukedoms seeing as their position is now improved?
 
Really, it's a wonder the guy survived this long next to this and all the battles and assassination attempts.
Well he passed most of his life either in battlefields or the equally life-threatening nobiliar intrigues and policies, so it does count as natural selection I think.

Maybe this is a better POD seeing as Conde's succession is secure and other things go down like we discussed earlier, except for the marriage of Catherine of Navarre.
Well, it would certainly be a PoD where not only Condé sucession is secure, but where he would inherit a far better situation as Henri IV's legitimacy was widely acknowledged and Spain chased off France at this point. The Edict of Nantes was passed, and I don't think it would be really put in question in the immediate aftermath of Henri IV's death (while *Henri V could pull a Richelieu or even a Louis XIV on it eventually).

War with Savoy is pretty much likely then, especially as Charles-Emmanuel will try to benefit from the general uneasiness of power, but it would be a good time to avoid a quick recovering of people prone (or willing) to support Spain and with a relatively short regency (altough François de Conti might be overturned at some point, depending on court politics, more likely than with the previous PoD IMO) up to say, early to mid-1610's.
*Henry V could appear as an earlier Louis XIII's equivalent : how successful now, that's another question altogether that I'm not sure can be answered decisively, altough I think he would have to compromise more with a still pretty much powerful french aristocracy.

Who does Marie de Medici marry now
Anyone Spain needs to conciliate and that needs money, basically. Poor guy.

and can Conde's uncles receive some dukedoms seeing as their position is now improved?
They already are princes du sang, which was the highest title one could pretend to.
 
OK, so how's this for a beginning...Henry IV dies late in 1598 due to a fever and a bladder inflammation. He's inherited by the Prince of Conde, now crowned Henry V. He will be raised as a Catholic, surrounded by Catholic advisers and ministers. Since he is just 10 years old his uncle Francois, Prince of Conti becomes Regent while the boy's mother Charlotte de la Tremoille, although she converted to Catholicism is still viewed with distrust in Paris and is barred from the government. One of Francois' biggest supporters is his brother Charles, count of Soissons. To secure the alliance with the powerful and popular House of Guise the Duke of Mayenne is name Lieutenant General of the Kingdom and the young king is engaged to Louise Marguerite, sister of the duke of Guise who is the same age as young Henry. Catherine de Bourbon, sister of the late Henry IV inherits the crown of Navarre.

The marriage contract between her and Henry II, Duke of Lorraine was already signed but Henry didn't like it and asked for an annulment while Catherine herself refused to convert to Catholicism. With the King dead the marriage deal is off and the new regent makes a deal with both of them. Catherine and Francois sign a treaty in which Francois agrees to uphold the Edict of Nantes to prevent further conflict in France and maintain peace with his neighbour to the south as well; additionally, Charles de Soissons marries Catherine as he was once her suitor and she was apparently in love with him and this secures peace with Navarre. On the other side Francois engages Eleonore de Bourbon, sister of the young king Henry to the Duke of Lorraine, thereby securing his friendship.

At home however, opposition to the new king appears consisting of ultra-Catholic who resented the fact that Henry was actually born a Protestant and that the Edict is in effect as well the alliance with the "heretics" from Navarre; then there are some Protestants who oppose him for a number of reasons: mistrust, personal advantage, the fact that he's surrounded by Catholics and converted against his will(at least that's how they see it) and of course a number of powerful nobles who don't care much for religion but for their own personal gain. Altogether some of these rebellious noblemen could be the Duke of Mercoeur (he abandons his plans to fight the Turks in Hungary and moves either to Brittany to restart his rebellion or somewhere like Picardy where he's closer to Spanish-controlled territory because they can provide help; this can also have some butterflies in Hungary and the Ottoman war 1593-1606), then there's the Duke of Biron who conspired against Henry IV in 1602 OTL, dukes of Angouleme and Bouillon who took part in the same plot (although still am not sure on the details), intriguing with Spain and Savoy, duke of La Valette who rebelled in 1596 and could attempt a new plot etc. Spain did sign the Treaty of Vervins in 1598 but could still be a problem and Savoy attacks Saluzzo in 1600 after diplomacy between them and Paris fails. With the country devastated by decades of war he will have a hard time dealing with all these problems.

So, Francois and his Lorraine friends move to the battlefield to fight these threats. Schemers like Biron can be easily dealt with through assassinations (which seem too common in the French religion wars) or imprisonment and execution. Still, I think the French could assemble at least two armies, one fight Savoy, which could go similar to OTL where the French overran Bresse and other Savoyard possessions west of the Alps and then negotiated before the Spanish could intervene, exchanging Saluzzo for Bresse and adjacent areas; the other one to fight the rebels that Mercoeur, maybe with Angouleme and others could gather in Burgundy or Picardy. That could end in a royal victory too, even if the had Spanish support. Especially in case Mercoeur decides to go to Brittany where he is all alone and the king can count on help from the Rohan family (Henri II de Rohan fought for the king at Amiens). Anyway it will take three or four years to quell these rebellions and conspiracies and by then Henry V can be declared of age and married. However, I think that Henry V can only overcome these internal and external threats by giving away more power and autonomy to the high nobility, giving away regions for them govern and similar privileges because his central authority is very weak at the time and he depends on them. Not sure on who could be his ministers though. What happens to the Duke of Sully? If he's not accepted in France maybe he leaves for Navarre as he was a hardcore Calvinist?

Anyway, in 1604 Catherine of Navarre dies on schedule, leaving the throne to Henri II de Rohan and Henry V supports him to repay for his help and loyalty. I was considering Emilia Antwerpiana of Nassau for his alternate wife (since de Duke of Sully is gone ITTL and Emilia was a Calvinist like him while Henri was apparently amazed by the Dutch when he visited the country) besides if he is a king he need someone of a higher rank, she's not a real princess but there aren't that many Calvinist princesses available. After a few years, in France Queen Louise Marguerite gives birth to a child or two but they are stillborn or die as infants. Henry V dies of an illness in 1608/09, inherited by his uncle, now Francis III. He could marry Margherita Gonzaga of Mantua (OTL Duchess of Lorraine, but some other match is possible) and will father at least one heir. However, the short peace between the Protestants and the Huguenots will soon be over and the stage is set for another religious war, although on a smaller scale than the previous. Also, France needs to reform soon and begin to look out for its interests in Germany and Italy, especially with a nre religious conflict breaking out in Germany and a possible Mantuan succession crisis looming...
So, how is this looking?
 
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