Assasination of an Austrian Archduke

I don't think it would be exactly ASB territory for the assasination of AFF and his wife to have failed. Could everything like WWI have been prevented if it did? It is my understanding that something like WWI had been predicted for years. I have seen a European pre war political cartoon where carictures of all the European countries are misshapen into crowding into a map of Europe and are all fighting each other. Well you can do anything in a drawing:)
 
You could savely assume that FF lives - that alone would not be ASB (though if you assume that he had energetc bodyarmor - Now THAT would be ASB)

You should present an POW why the assassination did not happen.

If for example it happened, just the bullets are not lethal - the war might come as OTL as A-H might act just as OTL with the difference that FF is not dead, but a wounded Crown Prince is still a "casus belli" for some.

IF the Car had a breakdown earlier, FFs wife had migraine and FF decides to stay with here and postpone the sheduled events, then the war will be averted - for the time being. But tensions were high, so a similar war might come a few months later. MAybe FF goes to a visit in Prag and a Czech fanatic throws a bomb - they catch him and it turns out he was an Okhrana informant...

To butterfly the war alltogether you need an earlier POD that significantly CHANGES the alliances.

(IF the 1905 revolution in Russia succeedes and Russia somewhat drifts away from France - Russia will probably still see GB as JApans ally and not wanting to associate with "an enemy". So Russia might try to get better relations with Germany... - but there are several TL here where you get ideas...)
 
You could savely assume that FF lives - that alone would not be ASB (though if you assume that he had energetc bodyarmor - Now THAT would be ASB)

You should present an POW why the assassination did not happen.

If for example it happened, just the bullets are not lethal - the war might come as OTL as A-H might act just as OTL with the difference that FF is not dead, but a wounded Crown Prince is still a "casus belli" for some.

IF the Car had a breakdown earlier, FFs wife had migraine and FF decides to stay with here and postpone the sheduled events, then the war will be averted - for the time being. But tensions were high, so a similar war might come a few months later. MAybe FF goes to a visit in Prag and a Czech fanatic throws a bomb - they catch him and it turns out he was an Okhrana informant...

To butterfly the war alltogether you need an earlier POD that significantly CHANGES the alliances.

(IF the 1905 revolution in Russia succeedes and Russia somewhat drifts away from France - Russia will probably still see GB as JApans ally and not wanting to associate with "an enemy". So Russia might try to get better relations with Germany... - but there are several TL here where you get ideas...)

Not sure what you are saying. I'm saying if AFF and his wife are not even wounded, maybe without the assasins even seen to have tried, and no such assasination ever takes place anywhere to anybody could the war have been avoided with the OTL attempt being the POD? Are you saying the war is still on then? I suspect you would be right, but, if you please, go into more detail as to how and why the balloon goes up.

I kind of think it might be something more direct between Germany and the UK and/or France, but I don't know exactly how. I don't suppose Germany would just wake up one morning and say "today is a good day to start a war for no particular reason."
 
Not sure what you are saying. I'm saying if AFF and his wife are not even wounded, maybe without the assasins even seen to have tried, and no such assasination ever takes place anywhere to anybody could the war have been avoided with the OTL attempt being the POD? Are you saying the war is still on then? I suspect you would be right, but, if you please, go into more detail as to how and why the balloon goes up.

I kind of think it might be something more direct between Germany and the UK and/or France, but I don't know exactly how. I don't suppose Germany would just wake up one morning and say "today is a good day to start a war for no particular reason."

A POD of "the assassination attempt fails to kill Franz Ferdinand" could easily lead to war as IOTL.

A POD of "the assassins never get close to Franz Ferdinand" could still easily lead to war some time later, given the belligerence and overconfidence on the European political scene at the time.
 
You could change their wedding day.

Ferdinand knew it was a bad time to go to Sarajevo but wanted his wife to be treated like a princess for their anniversary. Change the date and perhaps they don't go that day.
 
If i understand you correctly then the answer is no something like WWI could not have been avoided. As mentioned above this was a time when European countries were aggressive and overconfident so eventually there would have been a diplomatic crisis that someone decides to exploit. After that the alliance system ensures world war.

on a related note: the best pod i've seen on this board for why FF survives was that Princip took a knee to the crotch as he took aim.:D
 
The fact that the assassination succeeded IOTL is actually pretty close to ASB - the only reason Gavrilo Princip was able to kill Franz Ferdinand (and Sophie, though that was an accident; he was aiming at General Potoriek) was because of that idiot chauffeur's forgetting his instructions and making that wrong turn, following the mayor's car, instead of staying on route like he should have. If he'd stayed on track, the motorcade would have buzzed right past by the tavern where Princip was standing and he'd never even have had a chance. Remember, most of the conspirators didn't even do anything in the first place, they literally just stood there as the archducal car went on past them. Nedjelko Cabrinovic was just about the only one who remembered what he was supposed to do, and about all he accomplished was to lightly wound one of Potoriek's aides. Princip was just about ready to give up and go home when the motorcade made its fatal turn right where he was standing.
 
A POD of "the assassination attempt fails to kill Franz Ferdinand" could easily lead to war as IOTL.

A POD of "the assassins never get close to Franz Ferdinand" could still easily lead to war some time later, given the belligerence and overconfidence on the European political scene at the time.

You really think if he and his wife are unhurt it would not make much difference? Seems logical, except I don't think human nature works so that
attempted murder is the same as murder.
 
Butterfly away the death of AFF at Sarajevo and you butterfly away the OTL WWI beginning in August 1914. Killing AFF not only provided a plausible causus belli, it more importantly removed the most prominant anti-war figure from the Austrian court, and for that matter from the entire European leadership. For whatever other faults he had, AFF was smart enough to realize that Austria-Hungary was in no condition to fight a war and survive. No AFF assassination, no WWI in 1914. Actually, if AFF survives to become Emperor, the most likely flash point for the European war might well have been the 1917 re-negotaition of the Ausgleich, given AFF's anti-Magyar sentiments. Imagine a general European conflict triggered by an Hungarian rebellion against Emperor FF and subsequent Russian intervention on behalf of the Hungarians. Perhaps a very different conflict than OTL WWI.
 
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