What if the assassination attempt against Hafez Assad by the Muslim Brotherhood in 1979 succeeded, civil war broke out, and the Muslim Brotherhood and aligned politicians emerged victorious by the middle of 1982?
What does this end up meaning for Syria's internal conditions and foreign policy, for Lebanon, the Golan Heights and so forth?
The Muslim Brotherhood won't have the special connection Assad forged with Shia militias. At the same time, it might align from time to time with Iran or Iranian-aligned groups for anti-Israeli purposes [as late as the Hama massacre in OTL, some say the Syrian MB admired Khomeini].
OTL, the Assad regime's technique in the 1980s was to strictly maintain the ceasefire with the Israelis on the Golan Front, while striking against them through supporting guerrillas and terrorists in Lebanon and internationally.
How will things go with a Muslim Brotherhood regime in charge in Damascus instead? Will this regime maintain the ceasefire, or will Golan in the 1980s be the scene of constant shelling and raids that Lebanon was?
Internationally, the Syrian regime will have difficulty getting along with the west, because of Israel, but will also have problems with the USSR because of its invasion of Afghanistan and its support for the prior regime. How does the regime arm itself and who does it cooperate with the most?
Does