Ask : WW3 Scenario with Nato (Accidentally) initiating the war?

Yuelang

Yuelang

Banned
I've read several excellent WW3 timelines regarding the events of Able Archer, Cuban Missile crisis, etc. But almost everything directly involving war is started by Soviet Union. And Soviets always end up as the one guilty of starting the aggression.

Is there any WW3 scenario which initiated by NATO? I mean NATO is the clear aggressor and Warsaw Pact (and Soviet allies) just largely defend themselves against sudden NATO assault at first? I mean they could merely act on 'accident' that actually wasn't involving Soviet Union at all, and from their initial pov, they're just responding to -imagined or preventive action against - Soviet Attack, but with hindsight afterwards, NATO are the clear aggressor.
 

Amakan

NATO thinks Soviets are planning an invasion and initiate a first strike to destroy launchers, supplies and gathered forces?

Basically a reverse Able Archer 83.
 
Yuelang

Yuelang

Banned
Amakan said:
NATO thinks Soviets are planning an invasion and initiate a first strike to destroy launchers, supplies and gathered forces?

Basically a reverse Able Archer 83.
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yeah, like that, can you post the link? Thank you
 

Ato

One of the scenairos in Wargame: European Escalation was an armed Polish rebellion in 1981 that eventually results in NATO intervention
 
Yuelang

Yuelang

Banned
Ato said:
One of the scenairos in Wargame: European Escalation was an armed Polish rebellion in 1981 that eventually results in NATO intervention
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but why NATO intervene is the question here.

If they're intervening out of "Pre-empting Possible Soviet attack" and caught soviet unprepared, that's fine.

But if they're "humanitarian intervention ala Yugoslavian wars", pretty much not included because technically the provocator are Soviets
 

zoomar

What is the possibility that NATO, in context of rising tensions or concern over Soviet expansion elsewhere (Afghanistan, etc) might intervene in a Soviet (and Warsaw Pact) invasion of neutral Yugoslavia, and see the necessity of invading or neutralizing Soviet and Warsaw Pact bases of forces in bordering Warsaw Pact states with airstrikes and ground incursions? Would that count?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The key here is for NATO to think there's some WarPac first strike taking place.
...well, Dr. Strangelove qualifies, I guess. So does WarGames.
 

gladiator8085

What is the possibility that NATO, in context of rising tensions or concern over Soviet expansion elsewhere (Afghanistan, etc) might intervene in a Soviet (and Warsaw Pact) invasion of neutral Yugoslavia, and see the necessity of invading or neutralizing Soviet and Warsaw Pact bases of forces in bordering Warsaw Pact states with airstrikes and ground incursions? Would that count?
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IIRC that was how The Third World War by Hackett started.
 

Apollo 20

A false detection of an SLBM launch off the East Coast of the US is one possibility. You would literally have a couple of minutes to make a decision. It's easy to see someone blowing that call if it came at 3 AM, particularly if it came at a time of heightened tensions, such as right in the aftermath of KAL 007. It would look like an attempt at a decapitation strike, particularly if it were a time when Congress was in session and POTUS, the VP, the Cabinet and senior military commanders were all in the DC area.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Apollo 20 said:
A false detection of an SLBM launch off the East Coast of the US is one possibility. You would literally have a couple of minutes to make a decision. It's easy to see someone blowing that call if it came at 3 AM, particularly if it came at a time of heightened tensions, such as right in the aftermath of KAL 007. It would look like an attempt at a decapitation strike, particularly if it were a time when Congress was in session and POTUS, the VP, the Cabinet and senior military commanders were all in the DC area.
Click to expand...
That should do it.
Hmmm... what would produce a false detection? Sun reflecting into sensors? That did for the OTL Soviet false detections.
 

asnys

I'm very skeptical of accidental war scenarios in general, especially if NATO's shooting first. The whole reason we spent so much money on all those submarines was so that, if we detected a possible launch, we could wait until the warheads landed - so we could be sure - before we retaliated. The military may or may not have agreed, but that's the upshot of it.

I mean, imagine: it's 3 AM during the Third Berlin Crisis (or whatever). The president is roughly shaken awake. As he's hurtling down the corridors of the White House towards the helicopter pad, a breathless aide shouts out to him that a Soviet launch has been detected and asks for orders. He's half-awake, undressed, he knows he's not thinking clearly. What does he do: order a launch, or order them to wait - knowing that, if he launches and he's wrong, he's just become the biggest mass murderer in history, and that if orders them to wait, even if the attack is real, we will still have the ballistic missile subs, that there will still be revenge? I think he orders them to wait. Wait until he can see the mushroom cloud over Washington from the window of Air Force One. Wait until he's sure.

For the OP, I would suggest the Cuban Missile Crisis. I think a lot of generals and politicians believed war with the USSR was eventually going to happen, and saw the Crisis as the last real chance for the US to win such a war. Fortunately JFK didn't see it that way, but I could imagine someone else getting into the White House who has other views.
 

Nivek

This Skynet Involve? If yes, we knew how that happen.

If not.... a reverse 1983 Doomsday, with a overzealous anti nuclear operator giving the nuclear alarm after a false alarm?
 
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