Ashes of the Dragon: A Protect and Survive Tale

Here is the map of the USSR and the People's Republic of China. Credits from the University of Texas at Austin.

Just shows how the Soviets had enemies on all their borders that they were basically surrounded. For the first time ever, the manpower of the Soviet Army was directly challenged by the PLA to the East and the NATO to the West.
soviet_union_east_and_south_asia_1987.jpg
 
Here is the map of the USSR and the People's Republic of China. Credits from the University of Texas at Austin.

Just shows how the Soviets had enemies on all their borders that they were basically surrounded. For the first time ever, the manpower of the Soviet Army was directly challenged by the PLA to the East and the NATO to the West.

That's one of the reasons that the Soviets ended up so heavy handed with the tactical strikes in northeast after the Kassel device went off.The PLA had the highest number of standing reserves on the planet and had spent the previous three decades stockpiling weaponry for a possible showdown with their revolutionary big brothers to the north (I still heard older people refer to Russia as their 'revolutionary big brother' when I lived there four years ago). With the PLA getting ready to hit the border like the Red Army rolling into the Baltic States in '44, there was little choice left for decision-makers in Moscow.
 
That's one of the reasons that the Soviets ended up so heavy handed with the tactical strikes in northeast after the Kassel device went off.The PLA had the highest number of standing reserves on the planet and had spent the previous three decades stockpiling weaponry for a possible showdown with their revolutionary big brothers to the north (I still heard older people refer to Russia as their 'revolutionary big brother' when I lived there four years ago). With the PLA getting ready to hit the border like the Red Army rolling into the Baltic States in '44, there was little choice left for decision-makers in Moscow.

Just one question, if the PLA were more numerous in the Asian front, how do they cross the Sino-Soviet border, Sino-Mongolian border, Sino-Vietnamese border, and Sino-Afghan border than easily? What you called Deng's Folley was overconfidence that the PLA can swamp the Soviet border garrisons that easily. The PLA numerical superiority is balanced by slightly superior Soviet technology such as the Mi-24 "Hind", T-72, and T-80 main battle tanks.

For one thing based on my research on geography of the area:
- Sino-Soviet border in Manchuria --> A frozen hell on January-February. Very cold and snow may bog down their vehicles.
- Sino-Soviet border in Central Asia --> Ragged passes and mountainous
- Sino-Mongolian border --> actually can be crossed since the land is flat and barren
- Sino-Vietnamese border --> the jungles will prove to be an obstacle for vehicles to cross too. The PLA did not learn from their mistakes in the 1979 campaign. Fighting the battle hardened Vietnamese in the jungle is a nightmare.
- Sino-Afghan border --> A very narrow corridor called the Vakhan corridor is nearly impassable by trucks and tanks due to ragged terrain. In OTL, the U.S. Special Forces had to use horses with their Northern Alliance allies when they fought the Taliban across the country. How did the Chinese manage to attack the Soviets and DRA forces if they only have a ragged mountainous corridor to pass on?

Other than that, a very interesting spin-off. One of my favorites along with Land of Flatwater and End of Watch.
 
Partial Update for New Chapter
Hey Everyone,

I'm in the middle of a partial update here, but wanted to get some feedback from readers as I move forward to finish the chapter. Comments and questions welcomed!

© Paul Goodfellow and After the Scifi Apocalypse, 2015. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from the author is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Paul Goodfellow and After the Scifi Apocalypse with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

“THE PROTEST”
KOWLOON, NEW TERRITORIES
CROWN COLONY OF HONG KONG
MAY 1987

“…When the Residency Riots broke out in 1987, most of the government’s leadership did not expect them to continue for as long as they did, or with the violence and urgency that protesters brought. Three years after the nuclear exchange, and more than a year after the end of the Work Quota Ration System, the mainland refugees who lived in the colony were at their breaking point. A 1986 ruling from the Hong Kong Supreme Court had rendered the question of residency a pressing issue, when the court found that there were no legal grounds for the denial of permanent residency to wartime refugees by the Hong Kong civil administration. But, the court did not immediately grant permanent residency to the plaintiff. Known as Hsiang v. Kowloon Neighborhood Housing Authority, this case had opened the issue up to public debate and turned an open wound into a festering one.

Weekly protests of refugees seeking permanent residence in Hong Kong and their allies from local civil society tore the city apart. When the residency protests turned into a general city strike, government officials and military leaders were ill-prepared for what came next. The central question of the protests (Should mainland refugees be recognized as full permanent residents of Hong Kong and granted the same rights to public services like education and hospitals as those who arrived before February 1984?) became the biggest single issue in city politics since the end of the Second World War.

Escalating levels of violence among protest marchers disrupted city life and called into question the legitimacy of the Hong Kong Police and the city’s military garrison at a time when the Legislative and District Councils were wholly un-representative of city politics. The April 1987 passage of a controversial bill to extend the colony’s State of Emergency through 1990 added fuel to the fire and drove even more residents to join mainland refugees in the streets. The rump Foreign and Colonial Office (FCO) abdicated responsibility entirely. The now-infamous April 20, 1987 communique from FCO Offices in downtown declared the city to be ‘…under the joint control of the British garrison and Governor-General Youde for the duration of the emergency.’ While recently declassified documents showed significant infighting between pro- and anti- factions within the FCO, this was not public knowledge at the time.

With Britain half a world away, devastated by Soviet wartime nuclear strikes, and central government barely hanging on, there was little hope that protests would reach the floor of the rump British parliament. The city’s commonwealth allies of Australia and New Zealand were also in the throes of postwar recovery. Both powers declared early in the crisis their refusal to intervene in a wholly internal civil matter. With outside powers refusal to comment or intervene; colonial and civil authorities were left on their own to settle this extremely contentious issue…”

David Kwok, “The 1986-87 Kowloon Residency Riots and Postwar Reconstruction: The Foundations of a Multi-Cultural Democracy in South China,” Asia Historical Review, Vol. 68, Iss. 4, pp. 30-65 (2044)

The crowd pressed against the man, shoulders and arms mashed against his sides, feet moving collectively down the street, an inexorable pull towards the front of the crowd. It was all flesh and cloth against him; arms raised up holding protest signs, fists clenched in defiance, shouts hard against his eardrums. Their voices were thrown to the heavens and echoed against the steel and concrete buildings on all sides of them; a canyon of steel, glass, and concrete that concentrated their voices into a solid mass.

It was a slightly overcast day, he noticed, with the sun burning through the cloud cover, rays poking through a low-hanging gray carpet. It had rained that morning, a light drizzle that cooled the city down slightly though the humidity was still near one-hundred percent. Above them, he could hear the low drone of a few air conditioners running in nearby buildings.

Probably government officials, he mentally remarked.

The crowd had gathered for the second time that week. It was unusual for protest organizers to call a second march for the week, though given the status of bills circulating through the Legislative Council it made sense. LegCo was once more taking up the issue of refugee residency and service access, meaning that they had the opportunity to present their case on a public stage to city elected officials. The man did not know much about elected representatives. He was a refugee from Guangzhou who had the good fortune of crossing the border before the bombs fell. When the Soviets launched their strikes on February 23, 1984, the man was hiding in a public shelter in Kowloon. They had spent weeks underground waiting out the fallout from Guangzhou and elsewhere. Once they emerged, they and their fellow refugees had been put to work on decontaminating the city, cleaning up the dead, and now working on the numberless small vegetable farms that had sprouted up in every spare corner of the territory. Across the border, starvation reined in the numberless refugee camps that sprang up between Lo Wu and the Guangzhou suburbs.

For three years now, he and his wife had lived in the city but were denied basic services. They could not go to public hospitals, their children could not attend city schools, and their official status marked on all paperwork as, ‘TEMPORARY REFUGEES - NON-RESIDENCE STATUS IN HIS MAJESTY’S CROWN COLONY OF HONG KONG.’ The man, known as Li Deng Miao (Deng Deng to his friends), had no idea who the British monarch was, and cared less for whether or not he considered him to be a resident of the city or not. Hong Kong was his home, as far as Deng was concerned.

“What do we want?”
“RESIDENCY”
“When do we want it?”
“NOW!”


The shouts carried high over their heads. The marchers numbered in the thousands, Deng estimated. They shouted in unison, though their languages were varied. He heard Mandarin, Cantonese, Hakka, and a few dozen village dialects bellowed by his fellow marchers. March organizers yelled the prompts in Cantonese and Mandarin into weather beaten megaphones.

The cacophony of language was almost too much to make sense of, Deng thought as he listened to the shouts echo out over the cityscape.

There were only a few vehicles parked on the side of the road; a smattering of police sedans, Land Rovers with government plates, and a few lorries with British Army markings. There was an occasional large truck that looked modified to run off steam, which had been a regular sight during the Japanese occupation both in Hong Kong as well as in Shanghai. But here, in the heart of Kowloon, those were a rarity. Most coal was heavily rationed for electrical generation, which meant that obtaining large amounts of it to run a sedan or lorry for personal use was illegal. The ubiquitous prewar red, green, and blue taxi cabs had been parked after the city’s gasoline supply was cut off for civilian use. Everyone was using either the city subway system, double-decker buses which were modified to run on steam engines burning heavily rationed coal (which meant running on limited schedules), or hailing rickshaws again. The city had reverted in a lot of ways back to living standards last experienced in 1945.

Li looked around and tried to spot his neighbors who told him that they were going to be here at the march. The whole of the Walled City, it seemed, had turned up to the rally. Though none of them could vote, they all knew what bills were up in front of LegCo.

Everyone circulated the limited numbers of papers that the South China Morning Post could put out every other day. The paper was wafer thin, and LegCo had issued legislation just after the exchange mandating paper recycling for all printed materials, “For the duration of the international crisis.” Almost a year after the Soviets turned Guangzhou and a few other locations in Guangdong Province into radioactive cinders, government officials had managed to get a few small paper factories back up and operating in Shenzhen. Most of the paper was destined for government offices to keep the bureaucracy functioning, with a much smaller amount set aside for newsprint, magazines, and public information. Only the black market hubs managed to circulate paper, cardboard, and prewar civilian goods back into the city, though at heavily inflated prices.

Even after the apocalypse, the bureaucracy is busy filing paperwork and memos, Li thought, a Cheshire cat grin spreading across his face.

I doubt that even the devil himself has as efficient a bureaucratic force as Britain or China, Li mused as he looked out at the faces of the crowd around him.

He had ordered his wife and daughter to stay at home in the Walled City. There had been rumors floating around that there would be political extremists in the protest crowds. The old forces of the hard left that had turned up in ‘68 to throw petrol bombs at the police had grown up, though there were still quite a few radicals left on college campuses who could get the job done. Li could make out a protest sign off to his left; characters were scrawled in deep black on a piece of brown cardboard covered in stains. The sign read, “RESIDENCY AND VOTING RIGHTS FOR MAINLAND REFUGEES.” To the right was another sign, held up by what looked to be a college student. She was no older than twenty. She had a fiery look on her face. The sign she lofted, characters in bright red paint on white card-stock (Obviously stolen from government stocks at the university, Li thought), reading: “ALL POWER TO THE KOWLOON PEOPLE’S POLITICAL CONFERENCE! DOWN WITH BRITISH COLONIALISM!”

Li rolled his eyes at the sign. He remembered vividly the extremism of the Cultural Revolution in Guangzhou, the calls for permanent revolution from the Chairman and the Red Guards. Mobs gathering outside universities and residential blocks to berate ‘intellectual counter-revolutionaries.’ As bad as things were in Hong Kong, they were not yet as bad as they had been in ‘68. There was now a growing amount of food for rations, refugees were allotted 1300 calories a day for strenuous labor thanks to the burgeoning local farm output and trade deals with the Australians, Kiwis, and South America, and no one was making political dissidents swallow buckets of thumbtacks.

“WHAT DO WE WANT?”
“Residency!”


A man next to Li elbowed him and motioned towards another college student off to the right of them, holding up a wooden sign with characters reading, “DOWN WITH RESIDENCY LIMITS! UP WITH THE PEOPLE’S REVOLUTION!”

“Do you think any of these kids remembers the Chairman or the Red Guards?” He shouted over the din in accented Cantonese. He had the enunciation of someone who had been to school and was used to speaking to a well-educated audience.

“They’re too young to be fucking, never mind remember what happened in ‘68,” Li replied.

“Dumb kids. The last thing I want to be associated with is anyone calling for another ‘People’s Revolution,’” the man replied.

“You from the mainland?” Li asked.

“Guangzhou. I taught at Guangdong Normal University, professor of Political Theory and Economics.”

“Well fuck me, and I’m just a lowly factory worker from Shenzhen,” Li replied, a sardonic grin spreading across his small mouth.

“You live around here?” The professor asked.

“Walled City with my wife and daughter. You?”

“I managed to get into a small public apartment before the bombs fell.”

“How did you land that?”

“I convinced a few friends of mine at City University, Hong Kong to get me in on a teaching contract. After the government announced wage and price freezes that December, the uni locked me in at a visiting salary rate. Still better than nothing, right?”

“Count yourself lucky,” Li replied. “I’ve been working as a farm laborer for the last two years out near Sai Kung.”

“How bad is it?”

“It’s gotten better since ‘85. They had my family and I on decontamination up at Shek Kong and Tuen Mun after the ambient radiation levels fell.”

The two of them looked around at the protest march, realizing that most of the protesters had little experience in actions such as this, never mind pressuring a Western-style political entity to push through a bill of citizenship.

“You think this will work?” Li asked the professor.

He shook his head.

“Nah. This is all to blow off steam. I doubt very much that they will listen to our demands before voting.”

“Why do you say that?”

The professor motioned around them.

“Do you see any foreigners mixed in with the crowd here?”

“No.”

“There’s your answer.”

******************************
TRIAD-RUN BAR
KOWLOON WALLED CITY

The room was mostly empty, save a few persons seated in chairs or at small tables. Lighting in the room was limited to a few spotlights and red lighting. A stage had been built at the front of the room. A female singer was leading a band playing a cover of a prewar song, “Major Tom.” She had a thick Tokyo accent, which bled over into her pronunciations of the song. The band’s name was written on a kick drum, “Tokyo Kids.” Not that there was much left of Tokyo now after the exchange, but the name fit all the same. A few waitresses walked around the room delivering drinks or packs of cigarettes to the patrons in the bar.

There was one man seated at a couch which looked directly out at the seating area and stage from the rear of the room. He was larger, much more rotund than the rest of the patrons. Three years after the Exchange, it was hard to find anyone who was still carrying extra weight around Hong Kong, never mind the rest of the world. He had his arms spread out on the upper rim of the couch; two of the waitresses sat on either side of him, legs crossed, dressed in short skirts and tank tops. One was puffing away on a cigarette, while the other was sipping at a clear seltzer in a highball glass. The man seated between them had a grin on his face and a lit cigarette dangling from his left hand. Smoke drifted lazily towards the ceiling. Occasionally, someone would approach him bringing a few pieces of paper or whisper something into his ear. He would glance at the paper or nod as they spoke and provide short answers of a few words.

One of the girls shifted in her seat to speak in his ear.

“You want to get out of here?” She asked, leaning over slightly to show off her cleavage.

He glanced down and gave her a disdainful look.

“I’m in the middle of something,” he replied, his voice thick with annoyance.

“Doesn’t look like it,” she replied, leaning over a bit more.

He shoved her upright with his elbow.

“Shut the fuck up,” he replied.

“You don’t have to be such an asshole,” the girl replied.

She looked back at the band, which had moved onto a cover of a prewar Japanese pop song, a sullen look painted on her face. The man examined her for a moment, thinking about how to handle the situation. He was not used to sullen call girls giving him lip. Most of the time, they were paranoid that he would have them killed and their body dumped in the river.

Girls were cheaper now than they had ever been. When the government had even the rich foreigners out helping with farm planting, everyone was eager to find ways to pay the bills or meet LegCo’s work requirements in some way. He had deals with a few of the local District Council elected representatives. He’d keep them rolling in rations and pay-offs, they’d put down on official records that he and the rest of his employees were doing the King’s work on local Kowloon truck farms. It was not as if the police would launch a raid in the Walled City if someone got wind they were avoiding the work-for-rations requirement. And, it was not as if he needed the government’s 1300 calories a day. Skimming food from government depots was easier now than it had been before the war. Together with their stockpiles of canned food they had collected before the bombs fell, he and his business partners were living high in the post-war years. The only thing missing was the occasional cup of coffee and it would be as if the war never happened for him.

An assistant approached him, bowed his head, and handed him a piece of paper. The businessman motioned for him to move off to the side while he read it.

Dumb fucking kid blocking my view of the band, he thought to himself.

Next time he steps in front of me, I’ll have to remind him of his manners.

He looked down at the piece of paper and examined the note. It was written in English. One of the girls leaned over to peer at it.

“What’s that?” She asked, pointing at the note. She spoke in Cantonese, her voice tinged with a slight Macau accent.

“None of your fucking business. Ask again and you’ll be on the street with the goddamn refugees,” he replied, his voice hard.

Her eyes went wide. She leaned back over, eyes fixed on the band, body rigid.

The businessman looked back down at the note to read it.

“PROTESTERS MOVING DOWN NATHAN ROAD, PAST WATERLOO INTERSECTION. PREDICT CLASHES ONCE THEY REACH THE RHKP STATION NEAR JADE MARKET. RECOMMEND YOU MAINTAIN PHYSICAL DISTANCE FROM PROTEST ORGANIZERS. RIOT POLICE TO BE DEPLOYED IMMEDIATELY. GARRISON MP’S ON STAND-BY. LIVE AMMUNITION HAS BEEN AUTHORIZED IF REVOLUTIONARIES USE FORCE.
LT. WATERS, KANSU ROAD STATION, KOWLOON

He looked the note over one more time to absorb the information, folded it, pulled out a small silver Zippo lighter, and lit the paper alight. He watched it burn until the flames reached his fingers. He dropped it and let it flame out on the blackened ground.

The businessman motioned for the assistant to come back over.

“Get back down to the street and fetch me a messenger now,” he barked. The assistant nodded immediately and left the bar.

The protesters had never been of much interest to him beyond simple intellectual curiosity. Everyone knew that their demands would not be met. There was no way that the government could extend residency and services access to nearly a million mainland refugees. Residency meant eventual citizenship, which meant voting rights in District and Legislative elections. For the police, that meant eventual electoral threats to their relationship with him and his friends. The status quo was preferable to shaking things up even more than they already had been in 1984.

The businessman motioned for another one of his assistants to approach. The assistant was a slight man; short and stocky with small, narrow eyes and a military buzz cut. The businessman hired him just after they came out of the fallout shelters in March 1984. He guessed the man had been ex-PLA, given his tendency towards violence and preference for torture to extract information when required. The assistant never told him where he was from originally, beyond a vague reference to somewhere in Hubei Province. The assistant approached and gave him a small bow.

Where the fuck did that come from, he thought to himself, giving the man a puzzled look as he stood before him.

“We’re going to need to secure some of our places of business down near Jade Market. I don’t want any of our shop-owners aligning with the protesters. If any of them provide the protesters safe harbor, make it clear to them that this behavior is unacceptable. No outright killings. We need the revenue,” he ordered.

The assistant gave a single nod in reply, bowed, and left.

The apocalypse has scrambled his proletarian wiring if he’s bowing to me, the businessman thought.

*******************************************
RHKP JADE MARKET STATION
KANSU ROAD AND CANTON ROAD INTERSECTION
KOWLOON, NEW TERRITORIES

The Portuguese officer gave the officers a sideways glance out of the corner of his eye from his seat. He had been in the station for several hours listening to the British-trained police officers and their military partners from the British garrison and the international military forces try to coordinate. The Americans, leftovers from what was left of the 7th Fleet, numbered in the thousands. Enough to sway decision-makers, but not enough to move them entirely over to their court.

“I won’t open fire on protesters and have another goddamn Kent State on my hands. There’s a difference between enforcing internal security and assisting you in suppressing an internal political movement. If you want this settled, deal with it on your own,” the American officer declared.

He was given a scathing look from a Royal Hong Kong Police commander in response.

“Part of our agreements with the American government remnants in Walla Walla included your following our orders,” the British officer declared, eyes narrowed in a stiff glare at the America.

The American returned a fiery glare of his own.

“I won’t have their blood on my men’s hands,” he declared.

Don’t use them, Americans are piss poor riot control police. Didn’t you see the TV broadcasts from Chicago and Kent State? The Portuguese officer mused.

A British Army officer was busy looking at a map of the area.

“Look, they’re going to funnel here, right down Nathan Road. As long as we keep them from reaching Chungking Mansions, we should be able to control the protesters and limit their strategic access to lower Kowloon and the Cross-Harbor Tunnel,” he declared.

Someone with brain cells, what a shock, he thought, sarcasm heavy.

“If Chungking Mansions empties out and they all join the marchers, we’re going to get fucking swamped,” declared the RHKP officer.

“There’s no reason for them to do so. The majority of residents and shopkeepers in Chungking Mansions are all permanent residents,” another RHKP officer stated.

“You don’t know that. A lot of them are unhappy with the status quo already. Many of the mainland residents are former inhabitants of the Walled City themselves. They might feel a sense of camaraderie with the marchers. We can’t risk another three or four-thousand marchers joining them,” the first RHKP officer retorted.

“Another three thousand won’t make much of a difference at that point,” the American officer said.

“It will if they reach our garrison at the Peninsula Hotel. Once they hit Salisbury Street, it’s a straight shot down to the Cross-Harbor Tunnel and Hong Kong Island,” the British Army officer retorted.

“That’s a choke-point,” said the American. “You can blockade the tunnel with heavy vehicles and keep them from moving across to Hong Kong Island. Besides, I doubt that protest marchers will voluntarily enter that tunnel, they can get blocked in on both sides and starved out.”

“Great, twenty-thousand dead mainland martyrs to stack with the other seventy thousand from ‘84. The morticians will be doing brisk business,” the British Army officer spat back.

“Look, if they get passed the Jade Market is there a way for us to funnel them into Kowloon Park? We know they’re not going to swamp Kai Tak. If we can channel them into Kowloon Park down here, or there’s King’s Park on the left,” the American said, pointing to a map of lower Kowloon.

“Oi Man Estates are just near there, as is Chun Man Court. That’s all public housing,” the RHKP Officer said.

“Fuck me, who isn’t pissed off with the government right now?” The American declared, sarcasm dripping from his words.

The officers were silent for a moment, the implications setting in.

The Portuguese officer stood up in the corner of the room, reached into his pocket, pulled out a silver cigarette holder, and shoved a cigarette in the corner of his mouth. He lit it and took a deep pull.

“These people have spent three years under martial law, barely scraping by on heavily controlled rations. They need to be managed, otherwise you’ll lose control of the New Territories before day’s end. If they smell weakness on you, that’s the end of it,” the Portuguese officer declared.

“What the hell do you know about this?” The American replied.

“We’ve kept control over our city with few problems,” the Portuguese officer replied.

“Don’t give me this shit about maintaining control, you fuckers reversed course the moment the bombs fell and fled back into old habits” said the American.

“Sometimes the old ways are the best, especially right now. We’ve managed the city for three years with only nominal use of force,” said the Portuguese officer.

“Nominal use of force my ass, I’ve seen the torture victims you pricks dumped out in the bay,” the American spat.

“If you don’t want to listen, you can always catch a freighter back to North America. I hear that they’ve even resorted to cannibalism in some parts of the country. I’m sure that’ll be preferable to listening to me or doing what you have been ordered to do,” the Portuguese officer said.

“I won’t be spoken to in that manner,” the American said. “We haven’t fallen so far that the autocrat is giving us useful advice.”

“I was never a member of Salazar’s party, I served in Angola and Mozambique. Just as I’m sure you served in South Vietnam at some point. You want to compare track records?”

“Fuck you. I never burned hamlets down and I was never anywhere near My Lai or the other massacres. I was doing my job.”

“So were we.”

The RHKP officer stood up and slammed his fist against a table.

That’s enough! We have enough problems on our hands without getting into an argument with one anther over governance. We’re a hair’s breath away from losing control of half the city. We’ve all heard the grumblings from the public housing units in Kowloon and the New Territories. If we give an inch, we run the risk of total collapse. They’ll swarm our units, march through the tunnel, and hold LegCo, ExCo, the the Governor hostage until they deliver,” the police officer bellowed.

The American officer shot him a look of contempt.

“This is entirely your government’s fault. We’ve ignored a legitimate ruling from the territory’s court system.”

The Portuguese officer rolled his eyes.

“Don’t give me this line about ‘legitimate rulings’ from a court system,” he spat, making quotes in the air with his fingers.

“What line, respecting the chain of civilian command, or following the courts?”

“Western legal review wasn’t designed with a thermonuclear war in mind. Giving them residency ensures that they will never leave.”

“And what is your answer then? Follow the example of Macau and start dumping refugees on neighboring islands without government resources?” The American asked.

“We don’t have the resources to spare. Hong Kong has done the same thing in Shenzhen. Those military districts and refugee camps were set up to keep them from entering the colony. You used live ammunition just before the bombs fell on civilian refugees trying to cross over at Lo Wu. Seems like you’ve already done much worse than we have.”

There was a pregnant silence after he threw that statement into the room.

“So what do we do now, then? Roll the tanks out on them?” The American asked.

The Portuguese officer took another long, thoughtful pull off the cigarette and dropped it on the ground. He blew the smoke out of his nostrils and gave the room a toothy grin of satisfaction.

“Let the RHKP fire tear gas at the protesters. When the college anarchists start tossing petrol bombs, open up on them with live ammunition. Make them understand that force will be met with force. To save the city, a few more will have to be sacrificed for the greater good,” he replied smugly.

The RHKP officers gathered in the room gave him a grim look in response.

“He’s not wrong,” said one officer. “If we give an inch, they’ll take a mile. It will be never ending until they’ve toppled the government and replaced it with their own. If that were to happen, the city would fall in on itself. We’d be easy targets for those roving militias across the border.”

“For the greater good, I suppose,” another said.

The American officer shook his head vigorously in disagreement once more.

“I won’t order my men to open fire on them. If you make us do this, I’ll let 7th Fleet Command know and they will take appropriate actions. My admiral will support the decision not to participate in this.”

The Portuguese officer shrugged his shoulders.

“Your call. Looks like we have a quorum here.”

The British officer gave him a determined nod.

“Nothing else to do now. If the Multi-National Force is going to stay out of it, then the British garrison will deploy behind the RHKP. I’d start handing out rifles to the police now. Maybe we could get away with only a few hundred wounded and a few dead at this point. Plus, they’re going to need the weapons to fight back if things go south.”

“I’ll call the armory and get a shipment of surplus Enfield’s sent up to Jade Station within a half-hour.”

“Might have problems with that,” another police officer replied.

“Why?”

“They’re marching in Wan Chai. The public housing in North Point, Quarry Bay, and Shau Kei Wan have mostly emptied out. They’ve shut down King’s Road and have blocked up Gloucester and Hennessy in Wan Chai. City Hall and Military HQ will be swamped within the hour.”

There was a sharp intake of air.

“Fuck.”

***************************
 
Any thoughts on this as I'm working on finishing the chapter/short story? Writing and pacing alright? Plot moving along as needed? Perspectives working?
 
Any thoughts on this as I'm working on finishing the chapter/short story? Writing and pacing alright? Plot moving along as needed? Perspectives working?
It's actually great. So Hong Kong is erupting into anarchy then? That they had to ask what remains of the U.S. Navy in the West Pacific to bolster the British and Portuguese forces in the region.
 
It's actually great. So Hong Kong is erupting into anarchy then? That they had to ask what remains of the U.S. Navy in the West Pacific to bolster the British and Portuguese forces in the region.
Looks more to me like the USN folks are basically refugees themselves. They are refugees with warships to be sure though I daresay many vessels are running patchwork if at all, the major weapons systems lack ammo replacements, etc.

I'd have thought the US government, such as it is, would have ordered all US military survivors overseas to make their way back to the States and assist in restoring order there. But

1) maybe the USA is so badly off that there is no place for the ships or troops to go, no one really wants more mouths to feed to show up, so they might actually have orders to stay where they, weakly rationalized with some mumbling about power projection. But really it's more along the line of ordering them to beg for their supper in some other junkyard.

2) possibly some of the forces are basically AWOL; based on reports of how bad it is back home, they think twice about hearing any sort of order to come back there and prefer to in effect offer their services wherever wanted.
 
Looks more to me like the USN folks are basically refugees themselves. They are refugees with warships to be sure though I daresay many vessels are running patchwork if at all, the major weapons systems lack ammo replacements, etc.

I'd have thought the US government, such as it is, would have ordered all US military survivors overseas to make their way back to the States and assist in restoring order there. But

1) maybe the USA is so badly off that there is no place for the ships or troops to go, no one really wants more mouths to feed to show up, so they might actually have orders to stay where they, weakly rationalized with some mumbling about power projection. But really it's more along the line of ordering them to beg for their supper in some other junkyard.

2) possibly some of the forces are basically AWOL; based on reports of how bad it is back home, they think twice about hearing any sort of order to come back there and prefer to in effect offer their services wherever wanted.

1) The nearest place for the USN to retreat in the South China Sea is the Philippines yet it is now doubt Subic Naval Base took a hit - being directly facing the South China Sea and the Soviet Navy base in Cam Ranh Bay - along with the rest of the USN and USAF military bases in Luzon. This resembles the Gathering Order in the 1983: Doomsday timeline where George H.W. Bush (after the disappearance of Reagan and Air Force One in the South Pacific) orders all USN warships to sail to Australia.
2) Very possible indeed. Many would assume the USA is gone for good and hence would rather take port in another country not affected by The Exchange.
 
Ok I'm new here, but this thread just awesome General Paul.
It actually realistic and explores the forgotten pieces of history
and you actually understand chinese culture and some of the language! (im of chinese heritage but i'm from Canada)
i have one question about this TL though, which is what happened Xinjiang and Tibet?
Did they separate once the Chicoms went up in nukefire?
and what is the population of china ITTL in 2016?
 
At least it's independent and freer than OTL; pity it took the destruction of much of the world to do so...

One popular WI, as I have mentioned, is WI Hong Kong had been hit?
 
At least it's independent and freer than OTL; pity it took the destruction of much of the world to do so...

One popular WI, as I have mentioned, is WI Hong Kong had been hit?
If Hong Kong was hit like in the 1983: Doomsday timeline, well in-universe it would not be so organized in the alternate 2019 and it will be a radioactive wasteland. Macau would be flooded with refugees and that Soviet officer that intentionally programmed the SS-18 ICBM would have committed suicide, never married, daughter would have not existed, and many other butterflies.

ROC and the southern coast would probably be the leading Chinese successor state.
 
Ok I'm new here, but this thread just awesome General Paul.
It actually realistic and explores the forgotten pieces of history
and you actually understand chinese culture and some of the language! (im of chinese heritage but i'm from Canada)
i have one question about this TL though, which is what happened Xinjiang and Tibet?
Did they separate once the Chicoms went up in nukefire?
and what is the population of china ITTL in 2016?

Thank you very much! I appreciate the kind words of encouragement. Xinjiang and Tibet are a bit complicated. Tibet is independent, but with a mountain of internal issues they're trying to deal with. Xinjiang ended up staying with the remnants of the People's Republic in Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, and parts of Shaanxi Province. The People's Republic has undergone significant changes since 1984, namely that party elections are done transparently via secret ballot, and they are allowing for competing parties to run against them in elections. Doesn't mean they're losing to them, but tolerance for opposing viewpoints has gone up. It helps that the party apparatchik's left after the war were all in Western China and had to find ways to negotiate local power structures without access to military or economic force to demand obedience.

In 2016, population of China is probably around 3-350 million, a decline of about 650-700 million from it's high point in 1984 with 1.084 billion. Mao's gamble paid off; there were enough people left over in China after the end that the region is still the most populous region on earth. Most of the arable land around the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers in the center of the country has been temporarily poisoned (as of 2016) by Soviet warheads used against flood control projects. Soviet military commanders knew that the best way to starve out the population and win in the long run was to poison China's twin arteries. That combined with hitting the major cities with high-yield warheads, and peppering PLA bases with dirty lower yield warheads lead to a bad period in the country's central plains. Radioactive fallout poisoned the waterways and wells and made most of the crops in the central provinces inedible, along with poisoning farm fields for decades. Social chaos, government collapse down to the county level in many areas, PLA divisions turned 1920's warlord armies. Central China was not a place you wanted to live in 1988.

Because the war was in 1984, you're also facing the problem of communal farms and centralized management of farm yields. Most of the farm overseers in the early '80's were still holdovers from the Cultural Revolution, meaning that they were party loyalists with few (if any) agricultural skills. There's a reason that the current Chinese president (Xi Jinping) spent time in Nebraska in 1982 living with Midwestern farmers; send your young apparatchiks overseas to the developed countries to learn better farm management techniques to bring home. Because the war fell at the beginning of that process, combined with heavy fallout and social disorder, it's a recipe for massive and extremely devastating famine. So, it's likely that 22nd Century historians and anthropologists will label the postwar collapse of agriculture in China as the most devastating famine in human history, with at least 2-300 million deaths that can be attributed directly to it. In essence, the Soviets knew what they were doing.

If the war between the US and the Soviet Union was a bare knuckles boxing fight where both fighters received body blows; then the war between the Soviets and the PRC wasn't a fight. It was a back alley mugging where China was put into a coma and ended up on life support. The Soviets didn't want to deal with Chinese manpower, so they threw everything they had at them and made the country suffer untold hardships.

The good news is that they are a much stronger people than the Soviets gave them credit for. It'll take decades, but by the end of the 21st Century, China is where it is right now in our world, though with a much more tolerant government. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Nanjing, Chongqing, and Kunming are all either rebuilt, or in heavy reconstruction. The major architectural losses, like Longmen Grottoes in Henan, the Forbidden City, and the Ming Xiaoling Tomb in Nanjing are all being rebuilt by the national unity government. The economy and agricultural sector are humming along, trade with Australia and New Zealand are at an all time high, and diplomats are speaking of the beginning of an East Asia-oriented world order. If the 21st Century is the century of reconstruction, the 22nd Century is the Asian Century with a rebuilt and strengthened Middle Kingdom leading the way.
 
20 years ago today, Macau was formally handed over to the People's Republic of China.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...macau-handover-party-hong-kong-china-12198830

Butterflied away in this timeline.

I forgot this was the anniversary of the Macau handover! It's butterflied away in TTL, though there are ceremonies to mark the formal independence of Macau from Portugal. I imagine that the Hong Kong handover would probably be a much more low-key affair than it was in OTL. Likely a few Foreign and Commonwealth Offices representatives sent from Portsmouth to oversee the handover, the Royal HK Garrison probably mostly ends up staying in the city to manage the transition to a new Hong Kong Defense Force (HKDF, or 'heck-def' as it's known by the locals), and manage relations with the Multi-National Force (MNF).

MNF are the remnants of the allied military's, including the last bits of the US 7th Fleet, that survived the war with the Soviet Union and elected to stay on in Hong Kong. The Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Hermes, and the US Aircraft Carrier USS Enterprise stayed in HK after the war, with Enterprise's commander communicating with the US via encoded shortwave that they would stay in SE-Asia to safeguard the colony for the time being (1984-1991). Pity that the USS Kitty Hawk didn't survive the war, but everyone rolled the dice in February 1984. (Britain recalled Hermes from retirement in 1983 and sent her to Hong Kong to safeguard British interests and fly the flag alongside the US 7th).

Hermes
ended up permanently transferred to the garrison and served with distinction protecting the city's economic and trade interests throughout the region until 2021, when she was formally retired and turned into a museum permanently moored at the Hong Kong Maritime Museum in Wan Chai. Twice a year in February and July, the city stages a parade and flyby, with helicopters launching from the deck of Hermes to participate in the parade.

By the 2040s, HKDF has three small aircraft carriers in its maritime defense fleet which are descendants of Hermes' Centaur-class designs; HKS Hong Kong, HKS Kowloon, and HKS Pearl River. They're all about 20,000 long-tons in displacement; the same size as the Yorktown-class carriers from the Second World War give or take a few thousand tons. They have regular fleet exercises with the Australian and New Zealand fleets, and have gone on good will tours around India and the Middle East, along with visiting several ports in North America. The 2038 goodwill tour of the US West Coast is a particularly proud moment for Hong Kongers, as the HKS Pearl River was moored alongside the city's wartime guardian, USS Enterprise, in Long Beach along the Washington coast.
 
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Second Partial Update
Hello Everyone,

Here's the second partial update for the ongoing chapter I've been writing. This is a long one, and I'm trying to work on my writing as much as I can, so please forgive the slow pace of updates. Otherwise, enjoy part 2 of 3!

© Paul Goodfellow and After the Scifi Apocalypse, 2015. Unauthorized use and/or duplication of this material without express and written permission from the author is strictly prohibited. Excerpts and links may be used, provided that full and clear credit is given to Paul Goodfellow and After the Scifi Apocalypse with appropriate and specific direction to the original content.

***************************************

PROTEST MARCH
YAU MA TEI DISTRICT
NATHAN ROAD

The protest had started to fill up now with more marchers. Shopkeepers, families, businessmen, it seemed as if everyone had turned out to join them as the mass of people moved south. Wooden and cardboard placards were held up by the elderly, school children, young families with infants. More were starting to filter out of their buildings as they moved down Nathan Road. The light, airy sounds of singing wafted over the marchers like a spring breeze. The heavy atmosphere started to lift as the leaders of the march saw more city residents joining them. The government’s decision to ignore the high court ruling had struck a nerve in the normally reserved citizens of Hong Kong. The press of bodies became more pronounced, shoulders and bodies pressed together in the city streets.

Protest organizers even heard through the grapevine that someone managed to get a working phone line to Hong Kong Island and spoke with a close friend. Information was filtering out among the rest of the marchers. They were marching in Wan Chai. Tens of thousands were on Hennessy Road, thousands more on Gloucester Road marching west towards Chung Wan. North Point Estates, Tanner Hill Estates, and the other public housing developments had emptied out, with residents marching down King’s Road towards Gloucester and Hennessy, passed Victoria Park. If this were true, they’d reach City Hall and British Forces HQ within the hour. The march had morphed into a citywide general strike.

Li’s eyes grew wider by the moment as he watched the young and the old come down from their apartments. The whole city had turned out to join them, it seemed. He looked over and saw someone with a prewar camera snapping photos. Li motioned to the man to come over. He had a haggard look; dark circles under his eyes, unkempt black hair, and deep lines at either side of his large, expressive eyes.

“Why are you snapping photos?” Li yelled to the man who sidled up next to him, continuing to snap photos.

“I’m a photographer with the South China Morning Post. My editor sent me down to get photos of the march on this side of the harbor,” he replied.

“What do you mean ‘this side of the harbor?’” Li asked.

“They’re marching in Wan Chai. It’s turned into a general strike!” He declared.

The photographer fell back behind him, snapping photos at a quick pace. Li stole one last glance at the man as he changed out a film roll.

Li could see the understanding on his fellow marchers’ faces as they took in what the reporter said. It seemed to hearten a few of them, others had grins spread wide across their faces. This was no longer just an issue of mainland refugees’ rights, it seemed.

Distantly, Li could hear the sound of cassette music filtering out from a shop-front. A boom-box had been turned up to maximum volume and hooked up to speakers lining the arcade. It was prewar music, something with a bass guitar, drum machine, and keyboard. He couldn’t recognize it immediately. Not having heard much western music before arriving in the city, he was still working on developing an ear for it. The speakers were turned up as high as they went; the bass rattled his ear drum as the march moved passed the store fronts.

"How does it feel
To treat me like you do?
When you've laid your hands upon me
And told me who you are?
Thought I was mistaken
I thought I heard your words
Tell me, how do I feel?
Tell me now, how do I feel?"

Li could see over the crowds a large cloth banner held up by several protesters:

“GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY NOW!
FOLLOW THE COURT RULING!”

He glanced back over his shoulder and saw another large banner held above their heads on metal poles, reading:

“DEMOCRACY FOR ALL HONG KONG RESIDENTS!
VOTING REFORM AND RESIDENCY!”

The energy in the crowd was changing by the minute as more people joined them from apartments, shops, garages, and every building along the way. If the city were shut down in a general strike, the government could no longer ignore their demands. His wife and daughter might be able to have a future here. The fear of deportation to the refugee centers in Shenzhen could be replaced with hope; his daughter could attend school, university. His wife could open a shop; he could go back to work in one of the city’s factories. There would be a chance for a real life here if this succeeded.

A teenage girl, no older than fourteen had moved next to him with her sign, which read: “I WANT A FUTURE!”

Li elbowed her and bent down to speak to her.

“Why are you marching?” He yelled, the protest marchers and music growing louder by the moment.

“Because I want a future! If they keep mainlanders like you from city services, we’ll all be denied them sooner or later,” she replied.

“How do you know I’m a mainlander?” He asked.

“Your accent. You sound like you’re from Guangzhou or Shenzhen.”

He nodded.

“Guangzhou.”

She smiled, reached up, and patted him on the shoulder.

“Welcome to Hong Kong, brother!”

She offered him her sign. A grin spread across his face as he took the sign and lofted it high.

“Where are your parents?” He asked her.

“They’re back home watching the protest marchers from our apartment.”

“Why didn’t they come down?” Li asked.

“My mother is in a wheelchair. She fell during the evacuation to the shelters after the Guangzhou bomb. Broke her lower spine on concrete stairs. They couldn’t do anything while we were in the shelters except for making her comfortable.”

“My god, I’m sorry,” Li replied, sympathetic to her family’s situation.

His own mother had been in a wheelchair at the end of her life. He knew the quiet indignities of those whose life was dictated by chair access.

“It’s alright, I’m the Kwan family representative in the march today!” She said with a wide grin.

They marched down the street a little ways further, bodies pressed into them, the weight of thousands all around them. She passed him a glass water bottle to drink from as the morning temperatures rose near 30 Celsius. The humidity was already nearing one-hundred. He thanked her and looked at the bottle.

“You get this from the city water system?” He asked.

“Yeah, but we’ve been testing it. Rad levels are pretty low,” Kwan replied.

Li smiled and took a small sip, not wanting to take any more from the young girl.

After he handed it back to her, she elbowed him and motioned behind them to the left. It was another large protest banner, this one written in English and held aloft by a group of foreigners; Indians, Malaysians, and a few Europeans:

“THE ANSWER TO UNIVERSAL SUFFERING;
IS UNIVERSAL SUFFRAGE!”

“I can’t read English,” Li said.

She explained it to him in Mandarin. He smiled at the explanation.

“I’m still not quite used to marches like this. We never had them in Guangzhou, and when I was your age a march like this would have ended with quotations from the Chairman and a lynch mob descending on someone’s house.”

She replied with a smile and a nod.

“Things are different now. It’s our responsibility to lead the way forward for all of China. Once we get democracy here and start really building a better society, we can help out our neighbors in those awful refugee camps in Shenzhen and Zhuhai.”

“Do you really think this city can lead the way for the rest of the country? There are only a few million of us,” Li replied.

“There are only a few million of us, but we’re the last big city left in the country with a functioning central government. We have water, power, agriculture, trade with the rest of the world. I think we’re going to lead the way along with Taiwan.”

She’s so knowledgeable and cosmopolitan. At her age, I was still struggling with basic literacy, he thought as they marched passed a government office.

There were loud shouts over his left shoulder. Glancing back, Li could see a group of protesters wearing all black and carrying baseball bats and cricket paddles. One was carrying what looked to be a moutai bottle with a rag sticking out of it. They ran to the front of the government office and started smashing glass. One lit the rag alight and held it above his head.

“Sic Semper Tyranus!” Shouted the man, tossing it into the government office. Li could make out an orange glow coming from the building. The sign above it was marked, “REFUGEE REGISTRATION AND RESETTLEMENT OFFICE.”

Li had visited offices like that over the past few years as he struggled to get his family established in the city. They had never been much help to him, offering a few HKD here and there. Mostly, they offered encouragement for him to leave the Walled City and move his family to one of the sprawling refugee complexes across the border. They even offered a $1000HKD resettlement bonus for any family that volunteered to move to the center of Shenzhen and work in one of the factories supplying paper, tin, concrete, or petrol to the city. Few people bothered to take them up on the offer, largely because life expectancy in Shenzhen was a four years for resettled refugees without any ties to the camp social order. Bad food and radioactive contamination of the water supply were compounded by the barely functional city government. It’s only purpose was to keep Hong Kong from receiving an increasing amount of refugees and provide enough raw materials to keep Hong Kong alive.

He looked over; Kwan was shaking her head at the display of violence by the other protesters.

“All that does is tarnish our image among city leadership,” she said.

“How do you know so much about all of this?” Li asked, genuinely surprised by the political sophistication of the teenager.

“My father used to be a political commentator before the war. He wrote for a few magazines in Singapore and Malaysia and here in the city. Since my mother’s accident and the war, he’s been getting by on odd editing jobs for official publications from the city and public assistance,” Kwan explained, a sad note to her explanation.

“He should write about this,” Li replied.

“He’s going to. There’s a small press that has been set up in our neighborhood putting out a few broad-sheets here and there. It’s not exactly legal, but the government hasn’t shut them down yet. Dad’s going to write an editorial when I get back and get it into this week’s publication,” she said with a look of pride on her face.

Even when the government is considered to be utterly repressive, this place has more freedoms than Guangzhou did before the bombs, Li thought.

Just over the heads of marchers, Li could make out a large intersection ahead of them by a quarter kilometer. The intersection was with Kansu Street.

*******************************

RHKP JADE MARKET STATION
KANSU ROAD AND CANTON ROAD INTERSECTION

The station doors were propped open with bricks, officers rushing down to the intersection with Nathan Road. The Portuguese officer could make out a public telephone bank just off the street with a crowd of journalists shoving coins into the slots, screaming into the receivers over the sounds of officers rushing out to join th line of riot police. Batons and shields, along with helmets and riot armor had been dispersed among the police officers who lined up to block the marchers from moving south. This line of police had not been armed with the limited number of Enfield rifles that they had in the armory. They’d also held back from handing out sidearms; those had been held back to arm the second line at Salisbury Road. If the marchers got through here, which from the crowds that the officer could make out was exceedingly likely, then they’d have a line of well-armed garrison troops and riot police with enough tear gas and rifles to drive the crowds back.

There was shouting directly behind him:

“The Wan Chai marchers have blown through the Gloucester and Hennessy police lines!”

Fuck, he thought, If they’re through, then there’s no chance that they’ll stop them before city hall and the garrison headquarters.

It was little comfort to him remembering that his city was a ferry ride away on the other side of the harbor. Macau authorities had kept their city on lock-down for years with only a few instances of protests anywhere near the scale of these. This was quickly spiraling out of control and turning into a general strike.

If city officials weren’t careful, he thought, they’d lose everything.

If the island marchers got to city HQ and the garrison, they could spread out and surround the Supreme Court and Government House. They’d be able to hold the government hostage and issuing demands to officials. The nightmare scenario in Macau seemed to be coming to pass in Hong Kong; a general uprising turned revolutionary movement. The city was likely a hair’s breath from total chaos. If the protesters ended up toppling the government, there would be nothing to hold the starving masses across the border back.

He motioned for a young police messenger, maybe 25 years old, to come over. He recognized his face; the messenger had been in a few movies before the war. Is his name Chan, maybe? He thought. He glanced down at the messenger’s name tag, it read Chan.

“Chan, get upstairs and tell them that these protesters are going to overwhelm our lines. We need sidearms down here to keep them from breaking into the office,” he said.

“Right away,” Chan said and dashed up the granite stairs.

He glanced down at the street; the protest marchers were coming closer. He could make out signs in Chinese, Malay, Hindi, and English.

Leave it up to the British to import the revolutionary rabble, the officer thought, trying to make out the messages lofted above their heads on wooden and cardboard placards and cloth banners.

One of the signs in English he could make out read:

“SUFFRAGE AND RESIDENCY NOW!
FOR DIGNITY AND THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG!”

Chan came dashing down the granite stairs with a note in his hand. He gave the Portuguese officer a salute and handed it to him:

“NO DISTRIBUTION OF SIDEARMS WILL BE ALLOWED. GOVERNOR-GENERAL YOUDE IS IN EMERGENCY MEETINGS WITH LEGCO, EXCO, AND MILITARY COMMANDERS TO FIND A PATH FORWARD. ORDERS ARE TO REFRAIN FROM USE OF DEADLY FORCE UNLESS AUTHORIZED.”

-CAPT. MASTERS

He crumpled the note and shoved it into his jacket pocket and rolled his eyes.

“Anything else, sir?” Chan asked.

The Portuguese officer motioned him away with an annoyed gesture, lips pursed. Chan nodded and left his side.

He pulled out a pack of cigarettes shook one out, stepping out onto the stairway overlooking the street to get a better look at the tactical arrangement. He lit the cigarette, took a small puff, and examined how bad the situation had turned. He could not estimate the crowd from an initial glance, but it looked to be in the tens of thousands given the amount of people that were crammed shoulder-to-shoulder and the number of signs that were being carried.

Looks a bit like Lisbon during the Carnation Revolution, he mused.

The line of police officers in riot gear was thin, maybe forty of them in all. Twenty were standing abreast across the street, with a second line of twenty just behind them.

Even if they had ten lines like that, he thought, there was no way that they’d be able to stop the protest marchers from moving south towards the Peninsula Hotel and the Cross-Harbor Tunnel.
There were just too many of them. At first glance, it looked as if the entire city population had been shaken out of their buildings like a child playing with plastic houses, and dumped onto the streets. He was reminded of the pictures he saw before the war from protest marches in Bonn, Paris, and London; millions taking to the streets to protest the end they all knew was near. A flash and a blast of heat that turned cities to ashes and people to dust. This city had survived, its population had managed to get through the worst of it. For them, it seemed, the emergency just across the border was justification enough to revive Enlightenment values in Asia.

He took a thoughtful pull and exhaled smoke, thinking on the next move they could make. The riot police could do next to nothing to stop the marchers at this point. The forty men they had strung across the street like marionettes would be swept aside easily. He could see the nervous body movements from the police in the street; fidgeting with their truncheons and shields, shifting their weight back and forth; nervous chatter between them as the protesters approached. Just behind them was an officer in an old British tropical uniform from the war; knee-high khaki shorts, khaki shirt, shined black boots, and a tan military hat.

The only thing missing is a posh accent and it would be a perfect recreation of Bridge over the River Kwai, he mused.

The police officer hefted a megaphone and activated it.

“DISPERSE IMMEDIATELY AND RETURN TO YOUR HOMES. DO NOT APPROACH POLICE LINES,” the officer yelled into the megaphone. He had a British upper crust accent, London public school.

Likely a prewar reservist, he thought. Probably did a tour in the Falklands and took retirement before getting reactivated and sent here before the bombs fell.

There was a few of the protest organizers at the front of the march. They were young, he thought, none of them older than thirty. All of them with a look of determination on their faces that he could make out from this distance. One had a megaphone of her own. She started yelling in Cantonese, with the crowd replying in a deafening roar. She changed languages again to Mandarin, and then to English.

“MOVE ASIDE AND ALLOW US TO PASS. THE PEOPLE OF HONG KONG HAVE SPOKEN!” She declared.

He took another pull and dropped the cigarette to the ground, mashing it with his foot. The protesters were going to force their way through the lines, and continue on south. There was nothing that any of them could do now to stop it. Even if every officer down on the street was carrying an Enfield and sidearm, there would not be enough bullets to stop the crowd from swamping them and taking the weapons from the obviously scared officers. Most of them were just kids, the oldest among them maybe twenty or twenty-one years old. They were the same age as many of the protest marchers they were facing down.

I wouldn’t even bother to face them down in Macau with odds like these, he thought.

He watched as the protest marchers continued to move as one mass towards the officers.

“DISPERSE IMMEDIATELY AND RETURN TO YOUR HOMES. POLICE HAVE BEEN AUTHORIZED TO USE FORCE. THIS IS YOUR FINAL WARNING,” the British officer announced, his voice betraying his falling confidence.

Well that’s bullshit, he thought, reflecting on the note from the RHKP commanding officer. Scare tactics won’t send them back home.

A wall of people advanced towards the police lines. The officer could take no more. He marched down the granite steps and approached the British RHKP officer. Reaching over, he violently snatched the megaphone from the British officer. He had a look of terror in his eyes as the Portuguese officer stared him down. The protesters were maybe forty yards away.

“Have your men fall back now,” he declared.

“You have no authority to give me orders!” The British officer said, his voice shaken.

“Pull your men back now.”

The order was direct, authoritative, and contained a whole argument in it. He could tell that the British officer was having an internal struggle between the need to follow his original orders, and a deep sense of self-preservation. He’d survived the bombs, the fallout, and the skirmishes along the border. He was not going to die on this street.

The British officer cupped his hands around his mouth.

“Pull back! Pull back to the police station and reform the line in front of the entrance!” He yelled.

The RHKP officers stared back at them, eyes wide with surprise. They were expecting an order to hold their ground and fight back the literal wall of people. They scattered to the left, moving towards the police station. The Portuguese officer motioned for them to line up at the top of the granite stairs. They did so as the protest marchers were reaching where their lines had been. Police sawhorses were picked up by the protesters, several of them assisting in moving them at once. The police lines became theirs, now.

The British officer pointed at the crowds.

“Goddammit why did you have us fall back?”

The Portuguese officer pointed at the protest leaders.

“Because that’s a mob, not a march. They’d have torn you apart. The only thing holding them back from violence right now are those leaders. You incapacitate or kill them and this turns into a bloodbath.”
“Who the hell are you to give me orders like that?” The British officer demanded.

“Lieutenant Francisco Caldeira, Portuguese gendarmerie, Macau detachment. You should be happy I gave you those orders, because you’re still fucking alive,” he replied, his Portuguese accent thick as he spoke.

“They wouldn’t have killed us,” the British officer replied.

“You don’t know that. There are enough armed radicals down there to make it a risk.”

The British officer shook his head at that statement and went back to his men.

The protest marchers moved passed the police station, thousands of bodies pressed one against the other, shoulders squared and chins high as they moved south towards the Peninsula Hotel and the Cross-Harbor Tunnel.
**********************

TRIAD-RUN BAR
KOWLOON WALLED CITY

The assistant gave the businessman a bow and handed him a communique from the phones. The businessman waved him off and read over the note, scrawled in cursive Chinese characters and red ink.
“Fucking moron, why would you write this in red ink?” He thought as he began reading.

“KOWLOON PROTEST MARCHERS HAVE BLOWN PASSED RHKP GARRISON AT JADE MARKET. NEXT AND FINAL POLICE LINE IS OUTSIDE THE PENINSULA HOTEL, TSIM SHA TSUI. MILITARY GARRISON DEPLOYED IN FORCE AT INTERSECTION. NO AVAILABLE FORCES BETWEEN THEM AND THE CROSS-HARBOR TUNNEL.

WAN CHAI MARCHERS APPROACHING CITY HALL, MILITARY HQ. GOVERNOR YOUDE IN EMERGENCY TALKS WITH LEGCO, EXCO.

POSSIBILITY OF FINDING COMPROMISE WITH MARCHERS AND AGREEING TO ENFORCE SUPREME COURT RULINGS ON REFUGEE STATUS. UNKNOWN IF YOUDE WILL SIDE WITH PROTEST MARCHERS OR NOT.

IF HE SIDES WITH PROTESTERS, LIKELY THAT NEW ELECTION WILL BE CALLED BY END OF SUMMER FOR DISTRICT COUNCIL, LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL SEATS. CHANCES HIGH THAT PROTESTERS WOULD SEIZE MAJORITY IN BOTH CHAMBERS AND BEGIN INVESTIGATION INTO GOVERNMENT ACTIONS.

IF HE SIDES WITH MILITARY, CHANCES ARE HIGH OF EXTENDED CIVIL UNREST. POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT PROTESTERS COULD TOPPLE GOVERNMENT AND INSTALL NEW CITY GOVERNMENT.

SUGGEST DESTROYING SENSITIVE DOCUMENTS DISCUSSING RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE HONG KONG COLONIAL GOVERNMENT TO BE SAFE.

LT. WATERS, SHANGHAI ST. STATION, HONG KONG”

He shook his head at that.

How the mighty have fallen, he thought reading over the note.

The businessman pulled out his Zippo lighter and burned the note without another word. He knew what would happen if the government were to fall, or if the protesters were to get their way. There would be anarchy in the streets, likely a period when there was little to no law enforcement available to protect their storefronts or keep the rabble from expropriating what they wanted. Once that happened, his business interests would be placed directly in the firing lines. That was the last thing he wanted.

He motioned for another of his aides to approach. The man was slight; skeletal frame and thin arms with downcast eyes. He had been an accountant before the war for an export firm that had done business in Kuala Lumpur and Saigon. He was the businessman’s accountant now.

As the accountant approached, he made another motion towards the stage for the talent manager to lower the volume of the music.

The accountant stood to his side and bowed.

“What is it, sir?” He asked.

“I want you to telephone our businesses in Tsim Sha Tsui and inform them that they will allow protesters to take shelter inside if the garrison opens fire on them,” he said.

The accountant nodded.

“Right away, sir.”

If the government’s going to open fire on the protesters and there’s a chance that they could overthrow the government, I have to cover my own ass here, he thought.

The best thing for him and his businesses, he realized, was to play both sides against the middle. He had spent three years giving the government no reason to suspect that they would undermine postwar governance. That meant not openly defying government orders to cut rations back to the mandated 1200 calories a day per person. Most of his businesses served alcohol anyway, so there were few opportunities for him to make money off black market food distribution. Since the ration limit had been raised to 1500 calories a day, he had gotten away with some limited black market food sales. The government looked away when he did so, knowing that there needed to be a managed outlet for the people to express their dissatisfaction with the city’s rations system. The occasional extra piece of fish, plate of fried dumplings, or bowl of rice congee would not tip the scales back towards the more draconian rations of the immediate postwar.

Besides, the government’s use of the foreign naval contingents to protect the Hong Kong fishing fleet had paid dividends for the city as regional fishing fleets were devastated by the exchange. The residents of the mainland were too busy fighting off warlords and militias to scrounge enough fuel to go out to sea to fish. Those fishermen that managed to get out into the harbor were back to using sailing boats; the Chinese had reverted to using junks again for naval activities. In the three years since the war, Hong Kong’s fishing fleet was bringing back more than enough catches to give locals the protein in their diets that survivors elsewhere were literally killing one another over. They even had enough of a surplus to send some across the border to the refugee camps in Shenzhen.

The businessman had made real money off the government policies since February 1984. Now, with the threat of the protesters toppling the government hanging over his head, survival instincts kicked in again. The city’s organized crime had survived everything over the past century; from the Boxers to the Japanese to the Communists, and now a global thermonuclear war. The triads had lived through a civilization-ending war. He’d be damned if they fell to a protest rabble that toppled a city government.

He motioned for another aide to come over. The medium-height man approached and bowed. He motioned for the man to stand to his right as he started writing a note on a yellow legal pad.

“MY BUSINESSES WILL ALLOW PROTESTERS TO TAKE SHELTER IN CASE OF VIOLENCE WITH THE POLICE. IF UNIFORMED OFFICERS ENTER THE PREMISES, THIS WILL BE TAKEN AS PROVOCATION AND A DECLARATION OF INTENT ON THE PART OF CITY GOVERNMENT.
WE TAKE NO SIDES IN THIS DISAGREEMENT.
-FUNG”

Fung folded the note, addressed it, and handed it to the aide.

“I want you to bring this to the police offices on Shanghai Street and deliver it to the offices of Lieutenant Waters. If anyone asks, tell them that you’ve been sent by a representative of the local Kowloon business association. They’ll know what that means,” Fung said.

The aide bowed and left.
 
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If Hong Kong was hit like in the 1983: Doomsday timeline, well in-universe it would not be so organized in the alternate 2019 and it will be a radioactive wasteland. Macau would be flooded with refugees and that Soviet officer that intentionally programmed the SS-18 ICBM would have committed suicide, never married, daughter would have not existed, and many other butterflies.

ROC and the southern coast would probably be the leading Chinese successor state.

Poor Captain Vasili Pronin, he never gets to enjoy what the city and country became as a result of his decision to reprogram the SS-18 and send it into the South China Sea. Though his daughter Ekaterina was given a hero's welcome in Hong Kong when she visited in the 2020's. She was invited to read excerpts from her father's journal before the Hong Kong Legislative Assembly, laid a wreath at the foot of her father's statue in Victoria Park, had dinner with the Prime Minister, and was presented with keys to the city in honor of her father's selfless actions to save them from the nuclear fires. She ended up settling in Hong Kong along with her husband and children shortly thereafter. They were given a house overlooking Tolo Harbor in the Tai Po District. Captain Pronin's descendants still live in Hong Kong. His grandson, Vasili Alexander, is a commissioned officer in the HKDF, serving aboard the destroyer HKS Lantau during the first Chinese goodwill visit to the Far Eastern Republic.
 
Yeah, Hong Kong's civil government is going to have to change things now, with the Triads and the public protesting against them (and the Americans remembering Kent State and Chicago (1), too, and not wanting to repeat that)...

(1) On a side note, I wonder if Kent State is still intact; while Chicago got nuked out of existence (going by the Illinois story), Kent State is probably still standing, assuming it didn't get hit by the nuclear weapon meant for Cleveland (how that city survived ITTL, I'll never know).

BTW, Pronin's act sparing Macao, Hong Kong, and Guangdong was probably one of the most courageous things in this TL, especially since he could have gotten killed if anyone above him had found out about it (luckily, The Exchange took care of his superiors)...

This story is shaping up to be up there with Land of Flatwater and End of Watch as the best Protect and Survive spinoff, and waiting for more when you have the chance...
 
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